In a column for USA Today on Tuesday, Jonah Goldberg argued that the mainstream press hasn’t given enough attention to thousands of e-mails hacked from a British climate research center two weeks ago and published on the Internet.
The e-mails, hacked from servers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit by an unknown perpetrator, were authored by a group of prominent American and British climate scientists. They contain discussions about how and when to present and release climate data and how to combat climate skeptics, among other matters. Critics say they demonstrate leading climatologists’ willingness to manipulate and suppress data and dissenting research about the nature and causes of global climate change.
The wide spectrum of commentary has ranged from assertions that the e-mails completely disprove the theory of human-caused global warming to claims that they are much ado about nothing. Neither of these extreme positions is true, of course, but there has been more nuanced coverage and commentary as well. Most of it, good and bad, has taken place online.
Goldberg argued that the lack of mainstream media attention (he acknowledged a robust online debate) to the affair is just as much “a scandal” as the e-mails themselves. The reason, he says, is “journalistic tribalism” and “ideological bias” that have led reporters to uncritically accept the proclamations of scientists. While Goldberg is overreaching slightly, his point has merit and deserves exploration.
Ranked in descending order of articles published, “ClimateGate,” as it’s been dubbed, was covered in the news and opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal,The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, and the Los Angeles Times. The Journal alone pumped out well over a dozen articles (including a humor column) in print and online, most of them pushing the argument that the e-mails signify major flaws (both scientific and political) in climate science.
Regional papers, all but stripped of their science reporters over the last few years, have obviously had trouble keeping up, and they haven’t received much help from fairly superficial Associated Press and Reuters articles. Internet searches found only three regional papers – the Kansas City Star, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and the Orange County Register - that have weighed in with editorials (the first two defending the integrity of the science, the latter questioning it). According to the Business & Media Institute, the ABC, CBS and NBC morning and evening news programs have yet to cover the story. From the little I’ve managed to catch elsewhere, TV news has been unsurprisingly shallow—this type of story just doesn’t lend itself to two-minute explanations. Bud Ward, at the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media, was right to advise early on that journalists should not jump to conclusions.
There are a couple of logistical reasons that may help explain why the mainstream press has not exactly risen to the occasion. The first problem for reporters was the sheer size of the cache—I doubt that many journalists had time to comb through all of the e-mails (most of which, it seems, are quite mundane) before being asked to write about the most controversial lines being picked out by critics and climate-change skeptics. I certainly haven’t. The second major problem is that there are quite a few controversial lines. Figuring out and explaining each and every one of them in a single article is damn near impossible.
However, that is exactly what’s called for—over the course of the coverage, at least—and the press still hasn’t lived up to its responsibilities. With national and international policy on the line, this story deserves more and better coverage. To assess what it has done well and poorly so far, it’s useful to group criticism of the e-mails into two categories: what they say about the science of climate science, and what they say about the politics of climate science.
As Mike Hulme, professor of climate change at the University of East Anglia, wrote Wednesday for The Wall Street Journal—in one of the most sage assessments of the situation yet published—the inability to “disentangle” climate science and climate politics is imperiling both.
The Science of Climate Science

Curtis, thank you for your review, which seems pretty comprehensive. A few things, though:
Why no curiosity about what the deleted emails contain? You note them only to cast doubt in favor of the researchers (they may or may not have been deleted), but fail to speculate on the reasons why the researchers would want to delete them in the first place. It is fair to assume that these emails would not bolster the GW argument, and most likely provide a real smoking gun. I wonder how many journalists are following up on this?
You refer to RealClimate.org several times. They have been revealed by these same emails to be anything but an unbiased organization. You might want to broaden your resources (and avoid Tribalism).
I think the “trick” comment is a straw man. You are exaggerating its importance over other, much more compelling evidence of trickery. The biggest problem appears to be the buggy computer code and the “value added” data. Combine this with the revelations that the original data was lost (destroyed?) and it’s hard not to call the whole enterprise into question. There are similar FOI requests in the US that have been met with stonewalling. Why are more reporters not interested in these FOI requests?
Apparently the emails were first leaked to Paul Hudson, a reporter at the BBC, who sat on them for a month. Should there be consequences for this reporter, and the BBC?
Your November 13 article, “Balance as Bias” now seems rather quaint. Isn’t this an example of the kind of “Journalistic Tribalism” you now decry?
#1 Posted by JLD, CJR on Thu 3 Dec 2009 at 08:58 PM
It is being universally reported in the MSM that these emails were "hacked".
However, I haven't seen any proof of this. No police report, no investigation, at least not until the story broke.
It seems more likely that this was inside job.
#2 Posted by padikiler, CJR on Thu 3 Dec 2009 at 09:47 PM
Curtis, you wrote, referring to the possible deletion of emails: "Doing so would clearly be illegal." Do you know enough about the British FOI law to support that statement? In particular, are you aware that confidential communications are subject to an "absolute" (meaning that there's a non-rebuttable presumption) exemption per section II.42 of the British law? (See for yourself.) Now, it may be that it was nonetheless illegal for the subject emails to be deleted while they were the subject of an active request, but I can't see anything in the FOI law saying so. I think a retraction is in order.
(Captcha sez: "learning appreciated")
#3 Posted by Steve Bloom, CJR on Thu 3 Dec 2009 at 11:29 PM
Then it was hacked by an insider. Normal staff don't have access to everyone's personal emails. Whether they were hacked or just delivered doesn't change the fact that they were stolen.
The statement "value added" is talking about records of temperature collection that correct for local effects such as cities which raise the temperature readings but are not indicative of global temperature. What that means is that the raw data was likely higher and the "value added" to the equation was negative.
Real Climate is written by real climatologists, such as Gavin A. Schmidt - assistant to James Hansen of Nasa, to explain expert findings to the layman audience. Some of their emails were released in the hack and they have the perspective of being part of the expert climate community over the time period discussed. You may say "that makes them not objective" but there's a huge difference between non objective and worthless. If you want to understand the science in Climate Science, they are the best place to start.
As for the code, you may want to read a former conservative ally
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/35253_The_Comment_That_Killed_Global_Warming_(Not)
and the science blog he quotes:
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/12/quote_mining_code.php
And finally, should there be consequences for Paul Hudson and he BBC? No! I know of dozens of stories that should have been reported widely and weren't and the reason why was not because they were unaware, but because of reporter and corporate discretion. I never once called for an institution to be penalized or for a reporter to be fired, even when they've reported a known false story (for which, you could argue, such a punishment has merit).
Meanwhile, you guys stand up front defending Fox News for its common journalistic malpractices and it's flagrant conservative bias. You guys hate the fairness doctrine. You can't stand when someone criticizes your media, never mind calls for penalties and firings. For you that would be suppressing free speech.
So look, either you believe in journalistic discretion or you don't. Either you believe in the information marketplace or you don't. Either you believe in the fairness doctrine or you don't.
Either you believe in principles or you don't. You don't get do believe in them sometimes when they work to your advantage and then stop when they don't. That is not the workings of a consistent mind. In the information marketplace, especially the electronic market place where the costs of production have dropped to the price of your internet connection, if you don't like the media's job, you can do a better one. You don't call for penalties and firings over your dissatisfaction, you do a better job.
The only possible case where there's an exception is when journalists publish stories known to be false and in Britain they have libel laws which make that kind of slander a crime, which provides a disincentive to publishing information unless one is sure of the contents.
Anyways, real climate has posted some followup links:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7273/full/462545a.html
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4338343.html
and, of course, there's the silly discussion we had here:
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/lets_get_this_party_organized.php#comments
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 3 Dec 2009 at 11:38 PM
Then it was hacked by an insider. Normal staff don't have access to everyone's personal emails. Whether they were hacked or just delivered doesn't change the fact that they were stolen.
The statement "value added" is talking about records of temperature collection that correct for local effects such as cities which raise the temperature readings but are not indicative of global temperature. What that means is that the raw data was likely higher and the "value added" to the equation was negative.
Real Climate is written by real climatologists, such as Gavin A. Schmidt - assistant to James Hansen of Nasa, to explain expert findings to the layman audience. Some of their emails were released in the hack and they have the perspective of being part of the expert climate community over the time period discussed. You may say "that makes them not objective" but there's a huge difference between non objective and worthless. If you want to understand the science in Climate Science, they are the best place to start.
As for the code, you may want to read a former conservative ally
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/35253_The_Comment_That_Killed_Global_Warming_(Not)
and the science blog he quotes:
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/12/quote_mining_code.php
#5 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 3 Dec 2009 at 11:40 PM
And finally, should there be consequences for Paul Hudson and he BBC? No! I know of dozens of stories that should have been reported widely and weren't and the reason why was not because they were unaware, but because of reporter and corporate discretion. I never once called for an institution to be penalized or for a reporter to be fired, even when they've reported a known false story (for which, you could argue, such a punishment has merit).
Meanwhile, you guys stand up front defending Fox News for its common journalistic malpractices and it's flagrant conservative bias. You guys hate the fairness doctrine. You can't stand when someone criticizes your media, never mind calls for penalties and firings. For you that would be suppressing free speech.
So look, either you believe in journalistic discretion or you don't. Either you believe in the information marketplace or you don't. Either you believe in the fairness doctrine or you don't.
Either you believe in principles or you don't. You don't get do believe in them sometimes when they work to your advantage and then stop when they don't. That is not the workings of a consistent mind. In the information marketplace, especially the electronic market place where the costs of production have dropped to the price of your internet connection, if you don't like the media's job, you can do a better one. You don't call for penalties and firings over your dissatisfaction, you do a better job.
The only possible case where there's an exception is when journalists publish stories known to be false and in Britain they have libel laws which make that kind of slander a crime, which provides a disincentive to publishing information unless one is sure of the contents.
Anyways, real climate has posted some followup links:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7273/full/462545a.html
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4338343.html
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 3 Dec 2009 at 11:42 PM
and, of course, there's the silly discussion we had here:
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/lets_get_this_party_organized.php#comments
#7 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 3 Dec 2009 at 11:47 PM
I think, perhaps you misunderstand the issue with the "trick." We already have instrumental records that show warming in the twentieth century and going back to the nineteenth. That wasn't the purpose of this graph.
This graph was attempting to show temperatures going back two thousand years with the use of proxies like tree rings. The problem is that in the last part of the twentieth century the tree rings didn't continue to correlate with temperature. (And in other instrumental periods as well, but that is a different story.) But this would cause one to question whether the proxies actually always represent temperature since they would have been falling when we know temperature has been increasing.
To solve this "problem" they employed the trick of splicing in the temperature record when the proxies diverged. This makes it look like the proxies accurately reflect the temperature increases in the last part of the century, and therefore increase belief that they would have followed temperature in earlier periods. This was "hiding the decline."
Now it is true that the literature is clear on the divergence problem. But if the author's thought that everyone understood that there would have been no purpose in splicing the instrumental record on to the graph. The only reasonable explanation is that they were employing the trick to make the evidence of the paleo climate record look more certain than it really is.
#8 Posted by Nicolas Nierenberg, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:50 AM
On the issue of whether suggesting the deletion of emails is only serious if they any were in fact deleted you might want to ask Frank Quattrone.
http://www.archives.gov/about/laws/concealment-removal-mutilation.html
#9 Posted by Nicolas Nierenberg, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:57 AM
Sorry wrong link although it was relevant. Here is the Quattrone link.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/03/news/newsmakers/quattrone_verdict/
#10 Posted by Nicolas Nierenberg, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:59 AM
Thimbles wrote: Normal staff don't have access to everyone's personal emails
Padikiller asks: 1. Says WHO? 2. What makes you think that whoever leaked the documents was a member of the "normal staff"?
Thimbles contonues: Whether they were hacked or just delivered doesn't change the fact that they were stolen
padikiler asks: Says WHO? If the documents were in fact stolen, then why was no police report filed? HUH?
You're just pulling this nonsense out of thin air to protect your AGW religion.
#11 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 03:31 AM
Jesus paddy, you're a troll. It was theft. This is not a point of controversy. Deal.
#12 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 04:42 AM
I like the logic on display here. Emails deleted in response to an FOI request are no biggie (and who cares what the emails said anyway), but emails released by a whistleblower are a “hack” and “theft.”
Real Climate may have been surreptitiously and dishonestly barring any opinions from its “neutral” site that went against the AGW “consensus (even to the point of deleting reader comments), but they’re still the best place to look for info. What??
You guys are in denial. The upstart of all this is that people no longer trust AGW-promoting “scientists” and that goes triple for anyone or thing remotely connected to Climategate. So goodbye Jones, Real Climate, Mann, “value added” data, etc, etc.
#13 Posted by JLD, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 08:15 AM
Kudos on a surprisingly even handed article on this ongoing story.
Couple of points. Although the emails have received the most attention, the data release was not strictly limited to emails. Also included were chat logs and raw source code and the code is one of the more interesting, and under reported aspects of the story. Programmer Eric Raymond took a look at the code and concluded that Mann’s now famous hockeystick was hardcoded into the program so that no matter what data was entered, the results would always show a similar significant warming trend. This follows a critical report issued by the National Academy of Sciences Edward Wegman who found significant issues with the statistical methodology used by Mann and co. Its no wonder why the CRU and its affiliates were so hesitant to release the source code for their models.
While the emails may show a degree of tribalism, professional bullying, groupthink and possible criminal conspiracies (misreporting grant money and destroying FOIA material), the code is where we might see real evidence of scientific fraud.
The lack of transparency is what’s key, and journalists have fallen flat on their asses when it comes to demanding it.
#14 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 11:20 AM
Hmmm, what's missing from this 'debate' is the rest of the evidence pointing toward human-inspired warming and the subsequent destabilization of the world's weather systems, none of which has been refuted by all 61 megabytes of the hacked emails.
More important perhaps is the timing of the release, just weeks before COP-15 kicks off and the biggest con of them all, the so-called Cap and Trade scheme dreamt up by the world's richest nations that essentially consists of these wealthy nations buying off the world's poorest nations so that the rich can continue consume with gay abandon.
So instead of the focus being on the fundamental issues, here in the UK, the talk is all about Jones et al, this is the real issue that the MSM is ignoring.
#15 Posted by William Bowles, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:17 PM
JLD – Glad you enjoyed the piece and thanks for your comments. I’ll try to address them in order.
First, I am indeed curious what exactly was in any e-mails (and files… see my response to Steve) considered for deletion, and journalists should absolutely be trying find out. In one e-mail, it seems Jones was referring to a file of temperature data, but it’s hard to tell. In another, Jones clearly asks Michael Mann to delete any e-mails he “may have had with Keith [Briffa]” regarding the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report.
I will concede that reporters might rely on RealClimate too much, and yes, that is tribalistic. There are few places that a reporter can find such an easily accessible, searchable, and large database of lucid explanations and backgrounders and key points of climate science, however. So, I will absolutely defend it’s utility to reporters as one resource among many. Andrew Revkin pointed out to me that there’s an interesting piece of history stored in the cache of hacked e-mails – one from Gavin Schmidt to a long list of colleagues announcing the launch of RealClimate.
“No doubt some of you share our frustration with the current state of media reporting on the climate change issue,” Schmidt wrote. “Far too often we see agenda-driven "commentary" on the Internet and in the opinion columns of newspapers crowding out careful analysis. Many of us work hard on educating the public and journalists through lectures, interviews and letters to the editor, but this is often a thankless task.
In order to be a little bit more pro-active, a group of us (see below) have recently got together to build a new 'climate blog' website: RealClimate.org…”
I respect Schmidt and have no doubts about his integrity as scientist. I take this e-mail at its word as an offer to help inform journalists and not spin them. That said, everything that RealClimate posts should be checked and double-checked elsewhere. All information should be viewed skeptically and compared to other lines of evidence. In fact, one of the points I was trying to make in my post is that I found RealClimate’s explanation of the 2003 resignation affair at the journal Climate Research inadequate. Yes, the editor-in-chief there felt the peer-review system broke down and eventually resigned over it, but he also thinks the “gatekeeping” discussed in the recently released e-mails in unacceptable and has referred to Mann and his colleagues as a “cartel.”
I want to be perfectly clear, however, that I think RealClimate is an excellent resource and I would encourage journalists to keep using while at the same time expanding their list of sources overall.
Moving on, I don’t mean to exaggerate the importance of the “trick.” I actually think this is one of the easily explained and inconsequential points of criticism. So is the accusation of “dumping” of raw data and code, however. CRU is clearly trying to recover and release what it can (though the press should keep the pressure on) and, speaking of RealClimate, Schmidt has posted an excellent “Data Sources” page.
I agree that the BBC/Paul Hudson story is curious, although I’m not going to speculate about it here. I’ll see if I can get a comment from the Beeb. -- Curtis
#16 Posted by Curtis Brainard, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:25 PM
Nicolas – You made a good point insofar as I distilled this explanation down to the point that many other journalists did – which is to say too much, but I am well aware of the context of the “trick.” Here’s is the more complete synopsis I should have provided:
Phil Jones’s controversial e-mail containing the line about the “trick” refers to a 1999 report World Meteorological Organization report (pdf) that featured a cover graph showing a reconstruction of temperatures over the last 1,000 years. It was a multi-proxy (tree rings, corals, ice cores, lake sediments, etc.) reconstruction based on data from himself, Michael Mann, and Keith Briffa.
Briffa’s tree-ring data came from 2000 paper in Quaternary Science Reviews (mislabeled on the report as 1999, incidentally) reconstructing temperatures over the previous 2,000 years. That paper noted the divergence problem that Jones’s was correcting for in the WMO report, but made no similar correction itself. The divergence problem was first explained in a 1998 Nature, to which I provided a link in my story. The Nature paper, which looked at the previous 120 years, explained that for some unknown reason tree-ring density diverges from an otherwise strong correlation with temperature. Other studies support the correlation between wood density and temperature, so the data after 1960 are the suspect part of the record. In the WMO report, Jones used instrumental temperature records after 1960 to correct for the suspect data.
As you point out, instrumental temperature records go back much farther and considered reliable back to 1850. As to your other point, there are certainly problems with many types of proxy data, but these are openly discussed in the scientific literature and many proxies are considered to be very reliable. -- Curtis
#17 Posted by Curtis Brainard, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:27 PM
Hmmm, what's missing from this 'debate' is the rest of the evidence pointing toward human-inspired warming and the subsequent destabilization of the world's weather systems, none of which has been refuted by all 61 megabytes of the hacked emails.
Thats only true if you ignore the ongoing analysis of the source code that was also released, along with the following email:
From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , "Philip D. Jones" , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate
Hide the decline!
#18 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:27 PM
Steve – You make a valid point, thanks. Few things are clear in matters of law and I wrote too hastily. I’ve posted a clarification, rather than a correction because in one e-mail Phil Jones refers to deleting a “file” to evade FOI laws, so this isn’t just “confidential communications” we’re talking about – something that I and other reporters should have pointed out.
We have a piece coming up by about the legality of news posting the e-mails, as well as the outlets’ policies for handling such information, because so many reporters and bloggers seemed to be concerned about that. It seems like a good idea to then do a follow-up on that looking into what does and does not constitute evasion of freedom of information laws. Obviously, that has plenty of bearing for journalists as well. – Curtis
#19 Posted by Curtis Brainard, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 12:30 PM
For those who hate Jon Stewart because he's a "Lib! Lib! LIB! Only one letter, two doors up, separates LIB from LIE!" you get a twofer,
Acorn and environment, both balls, corner pocket:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-december-1-2009/scientists-hide-global-warming-data
#20 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 02:29 PM
PS. People continuing to claim a theft was not a theft can check out a parallel case in the US when a employee of Deibold took embarrassing documents from his employer and was charged with several felonies:
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=3826
English law is no doubt similar and there is a police investigation being done into the matter. Inside or not, hack or not hack, a crime is a crime.
And stealing people's email for lulz is a crime when the victim is the CRU or when the victim is Sarah Palin.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/webscout/2008/10/david-kernell-2.html
You can stop pretending it isn't now.
#21 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 02:31 PM
Thimbles wrote: English law is no doubt similar
padikiller wonders: Says WHO?
You just vomit this kind of conjecture reflexively in the name of your AGW gods...
Preach on, Brother Thimbles!...
#22 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 02:57 PM
Thanks for the clarification, Curtis. While we're on the subject of the file, though, here's the full quote (Jones writing to Mann) with the key passages bolded:
"Just sent loads of station data to Scott. Make sure he documents everything better this time! And don't leave stuff lying around on ftp sites - you never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I'll delete the file rather than send to anyone. Does your similar act in the US force you to respond to enquiries within 20 days? - our does ! The UK works on precedents, so the first request will test it. We also have a data protection act, which I will hide behind. Tom Wigley has sent me a worried email when he heard about it - thought people could ask him for his model code. He has retired officially from UEA so he can hide behind that. IPR should be relevant here, but I can see me getting into an argument with someone at UEA who'll say we must adhere to it!"
I think it's clear enough that the reference to deletion is simply hyperbole, noting that the first part of that sentence must also be. As well, why talk about hiding behind the Data Protection Act if he seriously intends to just delete the file?
Isn't it peculiar that we've heard so much in the media coverage about the FOI law but nothing about the (presumably cross-cutting) Data Protection Act or intellectual property rights?
#23 Posted by Steve Bloom, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 05:44 PM
Just had to mention the new captcha that popped up: "numerous law" :)
#24 Posted by Steve Bloom, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 05:47 PM
A whole lot of people have made a big stir over the block papers from appearing in the journals. In regards to the Climate Research stir, but that issue was covered years ago.
http://www.realclimate.org/docs/thacker/skeptics.pdf
The Climate Research paper drew sharp criticisms, including one from Michael Mann, the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. When von Storch, who was then the journal’s editor, read Mann’s critique, he recalls that he realized his journal should never have accepted the study.
“If it would have been properly reviewed, it would have been rejected on the basis of methodological flaws,” von Storch admits.
#25 Posted by Derek, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 06:32 PM
Thank you for a well balanced and acutely reasoned review of the media response to the climategate situation. I am a very experienced geologist with a strong background in statistical methods so I have long been skeptical about the claims of climatologists who support Anthropogenic Global Warming.
I will just quote one amongst the hundreds of emails I rave read in the UEA CRU dossier.
From: Phil Jones
To: John Christy
Subject: This and that
Date: Tue Jul 5 15:51:55 2005
John,
There has been some email traffic in the last few days to a week - quite
a bit really, only a small part about MSU. The main part has been one of
your House subcommittees wanting Mike Mann and others and IPCC
to respond on how they produced their reconstructions and how IPCC
produced their report.
In case you want to look at this see later in the email !
Also this load of rubbish !
This is from an Australian at BMRC (not Neville Nicholls). It began from the attached article. What an idiot. The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only
7 years of data and it isn't statistically significant.
(Other stuff omitted)
. IPCC, me and whoever will get accused of being political, whatever we do. As you
know, I'm not political. If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen,
so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This
isn't being political, it is being selfish.
Cheers
Phil
Thsi was written in the runup to the IPCC report and indicates clearly that Dr. Jones had already abandoned every shred of scientific integrity.
#26 Posted by Malcolm McClure, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 07:12 PM
This article misses Goldberg's point: Why is it that anyone who wants to know about this scandal can only find information online? They certainly can't see it on ABC, CBS, and NBC.
For another recent example, readers of the Old York Times would have thought that "Green Czar" Van Jones had resigned for no apparent reason, since the Times had entirely ignored that scandal until he resigned.
This CJR article itself is an example of the sort of groupthink that leads "journalists" to wish that some politically inconvenient stories would just go away.
Fortunately the Internet, Fox News, and Talk Radio have democratized the news, and it cannot be buried by a complicit media. The Old Media will be killed by their reluctance to report actual news. I for one will not miss them.
#27 Posted by PoliPundit, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 07:58 PM
It has now been TWO WEEKS since this scandal broke...
Why aren't you "watchdogs" castigating the MSM news outlets for letting this story unfold in the blogoshere?
HUH?
#28 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 08:37 PM
This is not democratized
http://www.milwaukeemagazine.com/currentIssue/full_feature_story.asp?NewMessageID=24046&pf=yes
It's McCarthyized.
#29 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 08:47 PM
Thimbles dodges the unpleasant reality of AGW malpractice: "...So talk shows can be, and are, all about the host’s opinions, analyses and general worldview"
padikiller notes" The HORROR! Unregulated free expression of a particular persons opinions broadcast to willing listeners in a free market system based on personal preference? And dissemination of unauthorized "worldviews" to boot? Without government intervention?!....
EGAD!
#30 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 4 Dec 2009 at 09:01 PM
As someone who has followed both RealClimate and Climate Audit for a while, it is shocking that this author believes that RealClimate has any credibility at all; although the bloggers there are "climatologists," they are members of "the team" that was so well exposed in the emails: a coordinated group of climatologists who believed that protecting their viewpoint was more important than was a valid exchange of ideas. The censorship of comments there alone rendered them no more than a p.r. machine years ago.
At Revkin's dot.earth blog I re-posted Richard Feynman's criteria for scientific integrity (hat tip to Lubos Motl), which is also appropriate here:
"It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty – a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid–not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked – to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.
Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can – if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong – to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.
In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another."
For four or five years it has been apparent to anyone who spends half an hour investigating on the internet that RealClimate has been violating the standards set by Feynman, and that Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit has been upholding them. The real story about the emails is the unambiguous vindication of McIntyre vis-a-vis "the Team."
As I said of Revkin, any science journalist who does not acknowledge Feynman's ideals in the course of this fracas is no longer worthy of respect. It is a story when politicians are lying and cheating, even though most of us expect them to do so. Why isn't it an even bigger story when "scientists" are caught lying and cheating, especially when some are using their deception to transform the global economy?
If the models are unreliable, as some experts in modelling believe (see David Stockwell); if the global temperature today is not significantly different than it was during the completely natural Medieval Warm Period (which seems plausible, if not likely), then the only evidence for AGW is the climate sensitivity. And while some AGW is certain, no one really knows the climate sensitivity, the response of climate to increased CO2 concentrations. Is it high? Is it low? We don't know. Maybe we should be alarmed, maybe not, but the notion that "the science is settled" is simply false, and the mainstream media should be reporting the collusive behavior that has prevented this uncertainty from being more widely known.
#31 Posted by Michael Strong, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 12:17 AM
2007, the 1st summer in recorded history the NorthWest Passage was ice free: http://tinyurl.com/bzxa7m http://tinyurl.com/ydxmbsh
Podcast: Daily Show's Jason Jones & Samantha Bee, Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki joined by Al Gore: http://tinyurl.com/ydpsdue
Susuki: "This is an opportunity to get on a truly sustainable path within 10 years."
Quirks & Quarks: Climate science still sound: http://bit.ly/7R0JEy #COP15
RT @DavidSuzukiFDN At 98 years young, Ria Hart has the mojitos lay it down old school on (Canadian) PM Harper: http://bit.ly/4tSavs
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/climate-change-seen-as-planets-defining-crisis/article1382640/
#32 Posted by AudaciousHope, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 12:25 AM
Excuses, apologies, distortions, elitism. "Climate Change" scientists in league with whoever issues the Grant Money. All results are slanted to appease. It is not complicated, any reasoning person with the CORRECT information, will be able to determine that there is no warming due to CO2 emmissions. The Inconvenient truth is a Convenient Lie. The Credibility of Science is in question and no amount of apologizing or spinning will clean up the stink of corruption.
#33 Posted by Robert Houston Jr, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 01:31 AM
Curtis, thank you for wading in and addressing the comments. You are a trooper.
However I must ask why you are still so sanguine about RealClimate? I’m sure you’ve seen this exchange:
"I wanted you guys to know that you're free to use RC in any way you think would be helpful. Gavin and I are going to be careful about what comments we screen through.... We can hold comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they should be screened through or not, and if so, any comments you'd like us to include.
Think of RC as a resource that is at your disposal.... We'll use our best discretion to make sure the skeptics don't get to use the RC comments as a megaphone"
I think you’ll agree that this is really disgraceful. They are censoring commentary that might call AGW into question. This is the very antithesis of scientific inquiry.
Why would any journalist continue to use RealClimate after this revelation?
#34 Posted by JLD, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 03:14 AM
If you disregard the emails, one of the most telling error of the AGW zealots is the failure to make any attempt to separate the roughly 1000-year solar cycle from any CO2 (and NH4) effects. The 1000-year cycle is near its end IMHO and contributing mightily to the warming data and if there has indeed been cooling for the last 10 years , that too.
Greenhouse gases and their effect is certainly worthy of study, but neglecting to separate that effect from the stronger solar signal is either very bad science or fraud. The emails indicate fraud.
Be sure to study climate on as long a period as possible. This will disclose cycles that are hidden in short periods.
#35 Posted by Fred, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 09:12 AM
Do you ever read Real Climate threads? For instance:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/12/cru-hack-more-context/
lgp says: 2 December 2009 at 1:03 PM
Gavin,
1) There was no “security breach” at CRU that “stole” these files
2) The files appear genuine and to have been prepared by CRU staff, not edited by malicious hackers
3) The information was accidentally or deliberately released by CRU staff
4) Selection criteria appears to be compliance with an or several FOIA request(s)
Being that you have insider insight from conversations with the principals involved, why don’t you tell us how they were released, instead of letting commenters continue to flog the meme that they were “stolen” by “denialist hackers”?
Or are you saving that story for the investigations :-)
[Response: Speculations based on your wishful thinking but without any facts are not worth very much. The police investigation is ongoing and I'm sure will report in due time. - gavin]
People get to express dissent and sometimes get responses to polite skepticism, or the - more often than not - lack of polite skepticism, but there are some really bad apples in the climate skeptic barrel who don't want debate, don't want questions answered, don't make honest arguments, and slap their sewage all over the climate discussion. These are the same kind of people who walk into threads here and clog them with negative garbage - for example:
http://www.cjr.org/the_kicker/well_it_may_deserve_an_award_i.php
They don't want to talk, they want to flatulate.
Real Climate isn't where to go if you want to hear people flatulate. Real Climate is where you go if you want to ask a question, skeptical or not, to professionals in the field and you will have a science discussion about it. It's not a place to go to call people liars and yap about the right wing cause de jour or type "Says WHO" a 12 dozen times to a dozen different topics. It's a place where data and climate theory are discussed.
You guys are ever so quick to assign evil motives to academics who's science you don't like, and stick halos onto the people who argue the science using lies and misrepresentations while working for industries most affected by climate policy. Some of you can't even bring yourselves to admit the emails in question were stolen.
Why are you so invested on the side of the cigarette scientists and the oil companies? Why are you so aligned with the interests of Exxon? What makes you treat their self interest as yours? Because it isn't. You should know from the oil spikes of 2006-08 that these guys aren't interested in your freedoms or well being, they're interested in your money and they're perfectly happy to see you freeze in winter if you don't have the money to pay their jacked up rates.
Are you afraid of taxes? Of consumption freezes? Of Change? Oil is a finite resource and we are already paying high enough prices for that resource to make the wasteful, ecological disaster in Alberta's Athabasca an unpassable opportunity. We waste natural gas and valuable potable water in order to expensively boil oil out of tar. Our supplies of fresh oil have dwindled to the point where this kind of scraping the of the earth's jar is necessary. Change is necessary. We will either be paying extra costs in taxes or extra costs in price hikes, but the non-fossil fuel economy is coming.
Even if GHG exhaust did not accumulate thermal energy, which it does, our current coal use is putting poisons like mercury into our oceans where it is absorbed and concentrated up the food chain into the fish we eat. Our current oil supply is running low of cheap, clean r
#36 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 10:33 AM
In other news, Desmog
http://www.desmogblog.com/
reports the story that possible data thieves tried to break in t my old stomping grounds, the University of Victoria.
http://www.desmogblog.com/breaking-impersonators-attempt-access-canadian-government-centre-fo-climate-modeling-and-analysis
http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=2300282
The Climate break-ins may have more in common with Water'gate' than we supposed.
#37 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 11:09 AM
In other news, Desmog reports the story that possible data thieves tried to break in t my old stomping grounds, the University of Victoria.
http://www.desmogblog.com/breaking-impersonators-attempt-access-canadian-government-centre-fo-climate-modeling-and-analysis
http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=2300282
The Climate break-ins may have more in common with Water'gate' than we supposed.
#38 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 11:11 AM
"If you claim it's because our science is mistaken then show me your science and where we are mistaken. If it's because the implications of the research threaten your politics, tell us what you believe and share how AGW affects your beliefs."
I've been advocating a tax on oil since the 1980s, and have supported Gore's proposal to exchange payroll taxes for carbon taxes since I first heard it proposed. There are many good reasons to reduce dependence on oil and coal and to encourage alternative energy sources.
That said, your trust in RealClimate is mis-placed. Yes, especially since the emails came out, RealClimate has finally began allowing dissenting comments. But for years they did not. Countless posters would ask legitimate questions and make legitimate comments at RealClimate, which were then refused, and then posted at Climate Audit. More to the point, legitimate questions were raised at Climate Audit which were ignored at RealClimate.
These sort of insinuations are especially outrageous:
"Why are you so invested on the side of the cigarette scientists and the oil companies? Why are you so aligned with the interests of Exxon? What makes you treat their self interest as yours?"
This is about scientific integrity, not about picking sides.
I encourage you to read Roger Pielke, Sr.'s, blog, a highly respected climatologist and the best independent broker of the science out there. He believes that AGW is causing serious climate change, though he believes there are other significant human causes of climate change that are not getting enough attention. But he has been carefully documenting the corruption of science due to the partisan tribalism of the AGW alarmists for years. See this for one starting point:
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/protecting-the-ipcc-turf-–-there-are-no-independent-climate-assessments-of-the-ipcc-wg1-report-funded-and-sanctioned-by-the-nsf-nasa-or-the-nrc-a-repost-of-and-comment-on-a-january-13-2009/
#39 Posted by Michael Strong, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 12:04 PM
Do you have your Pielkes mixed up, or are you saying you think Senior is a better broker than Junior? Junior _claims_ to be the broker, Senior does not.
Both of them argue for delay, deferral, and further study.
"Delay is the deadliest form of denial."
#40 Posted by Hank Roberts, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 12:45 PM
_Best_Coverage_Yet_
The video posted here. This is just wonderful.
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/12/febrile_nitwits_and_the_hacked.php
#41 Posted by Hank Roberts, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 12:48 PM
Timely advice for journalists:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/12/who-you-gonna-call/#more-2193
_____________
ReCaptcha says, appropriately:
glowered ISSUES
#42 Posted by Hank Roberts, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 01:02 PM
Thimbles whined: If you claim it's because our science is mistaken then show me your science and where we are mistaken
padikiller: "You" (if you count yourself among the frauds who have perpetuated the AGW nonsense) are mistaken in:
1. Falsifying data with "tricks" to "hide" cooling trends.
2. Admitting openly in email that "if it got out" that the globe has cooled for the last 8 years, there would be hell to pay.
3. Stating that a "scientist" "wants" to see an outcome (global warming" for "selfish" reasons.
4. Conspiring to attack skeptics.
5. Conspiring to break FOIA requirements.
6. Comparing the scrutiny of the "Republicans" in global warming science to McCarthyism.
etc., etc., etc....
#43 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 01:47 PM
A rare long-term Mann "hockey stick" I ran across is as flat as a pancake for 700 years then launches into a near-vertical blade in recent centuries.
It appears that he succeeded all too well in completely "containing" the previous high of nearly 1000 years ago (equal to today's temperatures or higher) , as well as smaller the varying temperatures in between.
///
RE
3) A comment by Michael Mann, a professor at Penn State’s Department of Meteorology, that “it would be nice to contain” the Medieval Warm Period in a millennial temperature reconstruction. George Will latched onto this on ABC News’s This Week, where he had the scientist saying it would be nice to “hide” the warm period (which some scientists think had higher temperatures than we are experiencing now, but without the presence of human-generated greenhouse gases).
#44 Posted by Fred, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 02:09 PM
What a disappointment this spin piece is. You have NO SHAME. These emails speak for themselves. The cat is out of the bag - anthropogenic global warming is a fraud and Brainard knows it.
#45 Posted by Larry Vescera, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 05:43 PM
That said, your trust in RealClimate is mis-placed. Yes, especially since the emails came out, RealClimate has finally began allowing dissenting comments. But for years they did not. Countless posters would ask legitimate questions and make legitimate comments at RealClimate, which were then refused, and then posted at Climate Audit. More to the point, legitimate questions were raised at Climate Audit which were ignored at RealClimate.
Well, I've been acquainted with global warming issues for several years since I was a skeptic and witnessed changes in the North. I've read Real Climate off and on for 3 years. The type of discussion I quoted is not unique to recently, I've seen Gavin and others allow criticism on the board to be answered by other posters and I've seen them personally respond to critique. I've also seen crappy science on Climate Audit and I've seen the skeptic blogs and the cigarette science people misrepresent academic papers to suit their pro-exhaust bias.
There are quality scientists who make honest challenges of the consensus, but the ones at the forefront of the skeptical movement are hacks with an agenda to deny a natural process, that GHG's emissions cause our atmosphere to retain more thermal energy than it would otherwise. They want to argue for solar cycles even though the data doesn't match up, they want to argue for the ocean being the cause of the carbon dioxide rise even though the ocean has acted like a carbon dioxide sponge to the point of acidification, they want to claim that volcanoes emit more GHG's than humans even though that mark is off by more than a factor of 100, etc...
And the hacks are an aggressive, well funded, movement which is allowed to lie and project its bias far beyond the ratio they represent in the science community. They rely on the journalistic fault often discussed here called "false balance" to inject their claims in the gears of actual science. And it's enough to fool 40% or so of the people about the state of the science. If you are complaining about the bunker mentality of real climate scientist, look at their opponents. They are at war and they have no qualms about honesty when employing their tactics. This is merc science that real climatologists have to confront constantly because every time policies are being decided based on their data, a merc comes out from the right wing wilderness to discredit the person and destroy the science.
That's not a side I want to be on, especially when I can see the environmental changes predicted by the science being denied.
#46 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 5 Dec 2009 at 09:34 PM
"There are quality scientists who make honest challenges of the consensus, but the ones at the forefront of the skeptical movement are hacks with an agenda to deny a natural process, that GHG's emissions cause our atmosphere to retain more thermal energy than it would otherwise."
Of course GHG emissions cause our atmosphere to retain more thermal energy than it would otherwise retain. Of course to some extent temperatures are increasing due to the dramatic increase in C02 emissions. And, quite separately, of course there are good reasons to reduce dependence on oil and coal.
That said, I trust and respect Roger Pielke, Sr. Richard Lindzen, David Stockwell, Lucia Lilijegren, and Steve McIntyre (though their positions differ from one another) far more than I trust and respect RealClimate and "The Team." If one is claiming that it has been firmly established from fundamental physics that C02 increases temperature, then, yes, "the science is settled," and the five individuals above agree to that. But to claim that we should therefore be alarmed and forcibly transform the world economy, including slowing or stopping growth in China and India, is a different issue altogether.
#47 Posted by Michael Strong, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 12:56 AM
Curtis, I think you miss the point here. The vast majority of the reporting on this story has ignored the BACKSTORY. This is especially true on the FOIA requsts which all came from one Steve McIntyre and his acolytes: David Holland, Willis Eschenbach and others.
Historically, Steve and friends have given little reason for scientists who are the target of his diatribes (and if you are not aware of this, read his site climateaudit.com) to cooperate with his requests for data. Whether people cooperate or not, they are inevitably accused of incompetence or fraud.
The Science of Climate Science
1) The trick was the display, or splicing, of the instrumental record onto the illustration for the cover of the 1999 WMO statement of climate change -- a political, not a scientific document. The technique used in MBH98 (an actual paper upon which scientific conclusions were based) was similar except that Mann, and every other researcher who has done a similar reconstruction, displayed the instrumental record clearly delineated from the the proxy records. Personally, I think the caption should have indicated that the instrumental record was overlaid on the proxy reconstructions, and that this was an error -- apparently there was some time pressure to produce the illustration.
2) The Trenberth message has two parts to it. The first part is a joke, at the time Boulder (and my hometown of Bozeman, MT) were undergoing a prolonged series of ridiculously low temperature. In Bozeman we experience a week of below zero lows. This was silly for that time of year.
Trenberth is studying the energy budget of the system and as he points out by linking to his paper our observation system is inadequate to the task of understanding where the energy is going during times of "cooling". This is a legitimate concern for people trying to understand the overall flow of energy within the climate system. BTW Willis Eschenbach who is one of McIntyres acolytes, tried to show that Trenberth's basic model of the the planet's energy budget was wrong (this can be found at wattsupwiththat.com). The only problem with it was that he got his arithmetic wrong. This is an example of the intellectual powers of the people who have been harassing the scientists who are being attacked.
3) You at least got this one right, or at least the paper in Allentown did. If you look at Mann, et. al. in PNAS 2008 (sorry, I don't have a link at hand, but it is an open access paper) you will see that he did accomplish that. McIntyre has raised his usual charge of incompetence and fraud, but Mann dealt with these issues in the supplementary information to the article *before* Steve ever raised them. Open? You betch!
4) HARRY_READ_ME.txt. I am in total agreement with Gavin on this one. Having dealt with analogous problems in my own career as a software engineer sometimes the job ain't easy. Sometimes problems are ill defined and you have to develop heuristics as best you can. You wish there were better answers, but that is often onot the case.
The Politics of Climate Science
1) I think that you mostly ge this issue wrong. The vast majority of the raw data is available online at GHCN. Estimates of the amount of data that is covered by IPR agreements range from 2% to 5%. GISS produces a record of surface temperatures which correlates well with the HadCRU using only the data available at GHCN. I think the press has been doing a lousy job of putting this issue in context, but then that might mean doing some real work...
2) If the suspect emails had been deleted, why are there so many emails on which Briffa (and Jones) were copied regarding the IPCC 4AR in the record? Obvviously there is no there there. This really is an easy point to debunk.
3) In this you conflate two issues and give a misleading account of both. The first was the CR issue. There is no evidenc
#48 Posted by Rattus Norvegicus, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 02:40 AM
"This is especially true on the FOIA requsts which all came from one Steve McIntyre and his acolytes: David Holland, Willis Eschenbach and others."
Hear, hear. THAT is the crucial facet of the story that journalists are failing to report well enough. The context for the emails that 'look bad' -which, it should be emphasized, comprise a tiny fraction of the mostly mundane hacked emails -- needs to be set. In the emails we are seeing the frustrated, pissed-off venting of hardworking scientists whose work and integrity had been under attack for *years* -- and the attacks weren't primarily the usual internecine academic sparring that goes on in all fields of science; much of it was agenda-driven work of conservative/libertarian/free market ideologues and commercial interests that felt deeply threatened by the developing climate picture.
The talk of 'tribalism' from Drs Curry , Hulme etc is great roundtable stuff, but they're being naive if they think that it doesn't feed into the denialist noise too, at the particular moment. What's needed at this particular PR moment from scientists and journalists isn't so much navel-gazing about the sociology of science, as firm, repeated rebuttal of the false claims about the climate science being endlessly propagated out of honest ignorance or dishonest intent (even on this thread).
Btw, if we're going to talk tribalism, check out Dr. Curry reception on Climate Audit's comments, where she's been viciously defamed by many commenters even as she criticizes 'tribal' climatologist and calls Steve McIntyre her friend...her unforgivable sin being that she continues to accept the reality and urgency of anthropogenic climate change. Wish she'd say it more and louder.
#49 Posted by Steven Sullivan, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 03:17 AM
More entertaining logic: FOI requests should be turned down because you don't like the guy making the request?
"Of the over 1000 messages released, less than 5% even hint at malfeasance"
This is one of the better quotes to emerge from ClimateGate so far. Using this logic, Charles Manson is a great guy because he only murdered people less than 1% of the time.
#50 Posted by JLD, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 04:54 AM
Curtis, thank you for your efforts to give an overview of the Climategate story, what parts have been covered and what parts have not. It is a large, complex and difficult story. Much of it is still unfolding. Interestingly, your overview of the story also exhibits tribalism. Please excuse my bluntness. I do not think you are doing this knowingly. Let me give a few examples.
1. You mention RealClimate.org in a manner that would give them credibility without explaining to readers they are willing accomplices with CRU. Phil Jones emailed Michael Mann of RealClimate to delete certain emails and a responsive email from Mann indicated he was getting right on it and would ask others to do the same. Professor Mann is currently under investigation by Penn State University.
2. You never mention Steve McIntyre, the businessman turned published scientist who writes ClimateAudit.org. This is especially strange since it was Steve and his readers who were making the FOI requests which prompted the CRU leaker to put these files and emails on the anonymous Russian FTP server. The name of the released compressed file was FOIA.
3. Another key email you fail to mention is the one in which Phil Jones writes that he would delete the data rather than turn it over because of an FOI request. Well, the data has been deleted. The UK Met Office is trying to reassemble the data and is estimating it will take three years to completely reassemble. This difficult and costly task will be paid for by taxpayers.
4. You have not mentioned two other climate science scandals which are ongoing. Competitive Enterprise Institute is suing GISS for not complying with FOIA requests. GISS is almost as secretive as CRU. Some people claim the validity of CRU temp series is supported by the independently estimated GISS global temp series, but the emails indicate GISS and CRU are not independent. In addition, Also, Douglas Keenan brought a charge of fabrication against Wang, a climate researcher with State University of New York. The charge was initially swept under the rug by the university but may be ressessed due to the release of the CRU emails. The paper in question had Phil Jones as lead author and Wang was a co-author. Keenan had specifically absolved Jones of wrongdoing based on his comments. See http://informath.org/pubs/EnE07a.pdf and http://informath.org/apprise/a5620.htm
5. The “trick to hide the decline” email was only partially explained. You are correct this has to do with the Divergence Problem. But you never mentioned the fact Michael Mann was asked if he spliced temp data onto his proxy data (I believe he answered under oath while testifying before Congress) and Mann said no because it would be completely wrong to splice together two different datasets in that way. He was right when he said so, but now climate scientists are acting like this is an accepted technique. Not true. Talk to a statistics expert and they will clear up this question. By the way, you seem to be unaware the Divergence Problem is a huge problem for dendroclimatology. Many different factors can limit tree-ring growth, not just temperature. How can you tell by looking at a tree-ring whether it is thicker because of warmer temperature or more precipitation or more sunlight? You cannot. Dendroclimatologists publish papers about their studies, but they have never proven their approach to be valid scientifically. The Divergence Problem demands answers.
6. Regarding the fact 1998 is still the warmest year on record, just a few years ago Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS and RealClimate was asked how many years would need to pass without a new global temp record before he would begin to question global warming. Schmidt answered 10 years. Now that 10 years have passed without a new record, is Schmidt questioning the theory?
#51 Posted by Ron Cram, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 12:01 PM
http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/copenhagens_climate_pool.php
Actually, it’s getting hot, and kind of ridiculous. The pool had 1,875 “fans” at press time, but many of their first comments in the fans section of the Facebook page are irrational posts about “Climategate,” the controversy surrounding a large cache of e-mails hacked from University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit. While we would therefore advise looking past the initial nonsense
And this is why Real Climate is moderated, because if it wasn't the drooling morons summoned by the likes of Limbaugh, Breitbart, Malkin, and company would zerg rush the threads with hateful speech and trash any hope of discussion. These are folks from the crowd that made death threats to kids over their SCHIP stand.
http://crooksandliars.com/2007/10/15/frost-parents-talk-about-the-rights-jihad-against-their-son-on-countdown
They don't want to talk about global warming, they want to spread lies and hurt people. If you don't moderate a little, they take over.
#52 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 12:24 PM
Of course GHG emissions cause our atmosphere to retain more thermal energy than it would otherwise retain. Of course to some extent temperatures are increasing due to the dramatic increase in C02 emissions. And, quite separately, of course there are good reasons to reduce dependence on oil and coal...
If one is claiming that it has been firmly established from fundamental physics that C02 increases temperature, then, yes, "the science is settled," and the five individuals above agree to that. But to claim that we should therefore be alarmed and forcibly transform the world economy, including slowing or stopping growth in China and India, is a different issue altogether.
You see, whether we should be alarmed, transform the world economy, slow growth in China and India - these are not science questions. They are political questions. The science questions are, "Is a catastrophic outcome likely if we maintain emission patterns."
The answer is yes. If we assume our patterns don't change and that the rate of carbon dioxide increase stays constant at about 1.5 ppm (both unlikely since the population pressures on current technology are pushing both up and feedback effects are likely) then we will double pre-industrial carbon in the atmosphere in about 115 years.
preindustrial CC = about 280 ppm
current = about 387 ppm
115 = ((280*2) - 387) / 1.5
These are really low balled numbers and we're talking about doubling CO2 concentrations in about a century. 3° change per pre-industrial double is the consensus value based on what is known.
What are the effects of 3° change based on what is known?
Not good.
Smaller snow packs on the mountains, surge and dry rivers since the snow packs melt quicker, plants from warmer climates migrating upward as tropical areas dry, die, and desertify, and more.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/article1480669.ece
These are scientific predictions based on low balled models that don't assume population increases and the resulting increases in coal and oil usage.
So the science says that catastrophe is likely if we maintain our CO2 rates.
Now we can ask whether we should be alarmed and forcibly transform the world economy, including slowing or stopping growth in China and India -
or if we can let the catastrophe occur?
We can discuss the pros and cons of each political approach, but at least we're not denying the problem they're in response to.
With so many people, denying the problem is all they got,.
#53 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 02:14 PM
Some guy actually wrote: Of the over 1000 messages released, less than 5% even hint at malfeasance and readers need to know what was happening and is happening in the larger story.
padikiller scoffs: LOL...
So there are "only" 50 messages "hinting" at malfeasance among climate scientists...
That's all?.. 50 measely messages?...
Nothing to see here, people... Move on...
Let's talk about S/CHIP and Halliburton...
#54 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 02:21 PM
Brad Porter, a contributor at Lew Rockwell and a organizer for the Ron Paul campaign (not a lib at all) comments on the climate issue:
http://thecrossedpond.com/2009/12/05/yeah-what-he-said/
Are you really that guy ...? Really? The sort that looks at this incident as proof or at least indication that climate science, as a whole, is a fraud? I know you’re one of the guys that says “We had a hotter than normal summer this year; where’s that global warming?”, but I’ve never taken you for stupid before.
The truth is that there is a very real, and very overwhelming consensus on the fact of global warming. The data is NOT AT ALL UNCLEAR. But data is not the point, is it? Is there any data that would convince you or Rex Murphy that global warming is real? Let me answer that for you: no. No, there is not. You are either lying or just amazingly un-selfaware if you contend otherwise. For some reason, global warming has entered the realm of truthiness. If 99 scientists said yes and 1 said no, the weight of opinion for that 1 would be enormous. If 100 scientists said yes but they differed on some specifics, it would be “no consensus! What’s going on here?!” If 100 scientists said yes and they all agreed on the specifics, they would be lying or operating with ulterior motives. There is no evidentiary burden—zero, zilch, precisely none—that would appease a wide swath of global warming critics. So let’s stop pretending we’re talking about science here.
Just like with Birtherism, or Trutherism, or any conspiracy theory, data and evidence and proof is besides the point. If ironclad data is given for, say, the fact that the average temperatures are rising to a hugely significant degree that cannot be explained by natural causes, conspiracy theorists will just shift the battleground. And just like other conspiracy theories, I have a helluva hard time understanding, absent insinuation and bullshit Glenn Beck-like dodges (”I’m not taking a position, I’m just saying…”), what, precisely, you think is going on. The world’s climate scientists are in on some massive conspiracy? It’s an example of an unprecedented level of groupthink and confusion that is creating a scientific consensus out of thin air? Universities and Al Gore are liberal so they are trying to fuck the economy? What, exactly?
As I’ve said before, I have no idea when Republicanism became anti-science, nor do I have any idea why conservatives aren’t inherently conservationists and environmentalists. It has become not a matter of skepticism but a matter of faith on the part of the anti-global warming crowd, and that’s an impossible place to converse with. Like, I imagine, yourself, I disagree with most environmentalists on the question of what we should do about it (ironically, I side more with the SuperFreakEnomics position). I am skeptical of cap and trade. I am skeptical of a carbon tax. I don’t support the idea that we’ll ever be able to just reduce consumption where cheap energy is available, even with massive government action. I think we will reduce ourselves to rubble before we’ll ever be able to change behaviors that fundamental. In short, I agree with you on the politics of climate change. But I don’t confuse that with a refutation of the science behind it. That reflex strikes me as akin to people who have a compulsive need to define their political opponents as subhumans or people not operating in good faith. It’s indicative of a total lack of maturity, a simpleton’s political instinct. You’re allowed to disagree with someone without them being a bad person. You’re allowed to disagree on the reactions to global warming without having to suddenly wage a war on science to try and kill the messenger...
But I did have a cool opportunity a few years ago. I was tasked with creating a document summing up the climate change issue, and s
#55 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 02:32 PM
Word fun with Thimbles : The science questions are, "Is a catastrophic outcome likely if we maintain emission patterns."
The [voodoo] answer (from my AGW Ouija Board) is yes. If we assume (without basis) our patterns don't change and (further assume without basis) that the rate of carbon dioxide increase stays constant at about 1.5 ppm (both unlikely)(because I say so) since the population pressures on current technology are pushing both up (or so says I, on authority of the Peaceful Goracle's All-Knowing Ouija Board) and (the thoroughly unknown) feedback effects are likely(because I say so) then we will double pre-industrial carbon in the atmosphere in about 115 years.
padikiller feigns concession: Who can argue with this kind of ironclad scientific reasoning?...
#56 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 02:35 PM
PS. Mr. Brainard?
A bit of advice. Never ever EVER use Jonah Goldberg as a basis of your framing, or really anything but a punchline, again.
Just a suggestion, but this is the guy who's contribution to scholarship was book containing 496 pages of "I know you are, but what am I?"
http://www.amazon.com/Liberal-Fascism-American-Mussolini-Politics/dp/0385511841
You're an intelligent person who writes intelligent columns. You don't need the words of the guy described below:
http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/goldberg-v.html
Goldberg is just a dime a dozen pundit. Cranky rich people hire sharp-tongued and relatively uninformed young people all the time and put them on the mass media to badmouth the poor, spread bigotry, exalt mindless militarism, promote anti-intellectualism, and ensure generally that rightwing views come to predominate even among people who are harmed by such policies. One of their jobs is to marginalize progressives by smearing them as unreliable.
to make a point. Trust me, anything you good you intend to do is detracted from by involving "My Mom got me this job" Jonah Goldberg.
#57 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 02:57 PM
Padikiller,
I said less than 5%, which is a very conservative (on the high side) estimate. I read every single one of the messages (often not in their entirety since most were scientists discussing the finer points of their work or discussions on wording and diagrams for the IPCC report). I would say there were about 1/2 dozen discussion the CRU FOIA requests -- which could not be fulfilled because of intellectual property restrictions -- around 4 dealing with Ben Santer's reaction to the McInytre FOI requests to DOE for his intermediate results -- which were eventually fulfilled -- and maybe a half dozen discussing the CR incident or expressing dismay at the fact that GRL published MM2005. And oh yeah, one about deleting emails regarding IPCC 4AR. There is no evidence anywhere in the record which shows that any untoward action was taken. As an example there are hundreds of messages about IPCC 4AR chapter six in the archive. Obviously these were not deleted and these were the subject of Phil's message. There are no messages discussing a draft of a letter to CR, nor are there any messages discussing a draft of a letter to GRL.
This is why I used the word "hint". There is no evidence of any actual malfeasance So get over it and move along. There really is nothing to see here..
#58 Posted by Rattus Norvegicus, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 10:41 PM
Norvegicus (mind if I call you Mickey?) paddy is a troll. Every letter you type to him gives him an endorphin rush.
I've seen footage of the guy at work:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrI7QUJfkvI
There's ample examples of him at work in the silly discussion I linked above. He's good for a name calling match, but he's lacking in the way of productive discussion.
(He's already started talking about his ouija board model of climate in these comments, please don't provoke him further)
#59 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 6 Dec 2009 at 11:52 PM
"Is a catastrophic outcome likely if we maintain emission patterns."
"Catastrophic" has not been solidly established. If, in fact, CO2 emissions increase temperature somewhat in the 21st century, but that those increased termperatures are, at the end of the day, not much different from those that the world experienced during the Medieval Warm Period, it is hard to justify the adjective "catastrophic."
This is where the hockey stick controversy is important. Suppose, hypothetically, that it had been clearly established that the projected increase in CO2 would, in fact, increase temperatures, say, four degrees Celsius over the course of the 21st century (high end of the IPCC "predictions.") But suppose the Medieval Warm Period had an even higher temperature anomaly than that, with no "catastrophe." if that were the case, then even significant AGW, high end IPCC, would not be cause for alarm.
Given that we can have NO confidence in the paleoclimate reconstructions of Mann and the Team, and the 1990 IPCC paleo reconstruction shows the Medieval Warm Period being substantially warmer than the present, then it is hard to see why we should be so paranoid. Mann alone strikes me as a case study in scientific fraud, with the Wegman report essentially supporting McIntyre's perspective, contra RealClimate spin.
In addition, if all of the world's people have a standard of living in 2100 that is higher than that of the average American today (a realistic possibility, learn a little bit about the impact of economic growth rates, especially if economic freedom is increased globally), and if the change in climate is not that much different than is an especially hot year or cold year today, then maybe "adaptation" makes a lot more sense than burning climate heretics at the stake right now as Hansen would have us do. Yes, perhaps the global sea level will be six inches higher according to the IPCC, but Holland has dealt with a greater challenge than that with less wealth and more primitive technology for hundreds of years.
I would respect alarmists more if they could have a calm, rational conversations about such possibilities - even if they seemed like unlikely possibilities. But alarmists seem like religious fanatics. The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Yes, maybe (YES, it is possible that it could be "catastrophic"), but can we first have a rational conversation?
Again, I'm all for the Gore-proposed unilateral U.S. carbon taxes in exchange for payroll taxes; this is not about a policy disagreement. This is about the tone, rationality, and integrity of the discourse, which are the grounds on which Mann, Jones, Hansen, RealClimate, etc. strike me as religious fanatics.
#60 Posted by Michael Strong, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 12:41 AM
First off, the Medieval Warm Period was a local, not a global event. It was a thermal redistribution, not a temperature rise.
Second off, what drove the Medieval Warm Period was not atmospheric and therefore, the normal equilibrium could reestablish.
This is different from our climate situation. Ours is going to be a persistent rise in temperatures as gas concentrations increase, and they will have to "if all of the world's people have a standard of living in 2100 that is higher than that of the average American today".
And this is where people don't get the limits of money. You can only move so much on this globe. You can only adapt so much in a desert. You can't buy a cure for AIDS. When you've pushed the natural system into collapse, you can't buy your way out of it. Did money bring rain to Ethiopia? Can money stop the ocean from releasing it's deposits of CO2 and methane? Will money undo the toxicity of fish caused by coal emissions? Money can't buy you off the earth and can't buy you new environmental systems which you and I depend on.
There are limits to growth. There are limits to earth. There are limits to roads. If we do not recognize these limits, we will go off cliffs and no amount of money can buy off gravity once you are off the cliff.
I am having a rational discussion with you. I am purposefully low balling my figures so that we can build a friendly skeptical model. That model says, assuming constant rates of industry for 100 years, we're doubling CO2. Using conservative measures brought by the IPCC that means a change of 3°.
If I was being more realistic and assuming "the world's people have a standard of living in 2100 that is higher than that of the average American today" then we would be talking about a few billion more people excreting a few parts per million more than what we are discussing.
We are talking about an environmental catastrophe, that is the rational discussion. It is the same in nature that wiped the Mayan civilization of the map and caused the collapse of Napa Nui. Environmental collapse has consequences and currency is limited in what it can do to solve them.
People don't remember that Rajenda Pachauri was the Bush Administration guy brought in to low ball and blunt the UN climate findings
http://in.reuters.com/article/topNews/idINIndia-29968820071012
He had rational discussions and he witnessed the reality exceed the projections and he sees the science now.
And what he rationally says is that we are hitting our limits.
Our natural systems are breaking, now:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/02/AR2009120203732.html
And when they are broken, money won't buy us new ones. The irrational discussion is to pretend that the natural systems aren't breaking or that our economic capacity to handle natural collapse is limitless.
Extinction events have been caused by global temperature increases of 6°C over 20,000 years. We're on our way, based on unrealistically conservative projections, to a 3°C change in a century. It's irrational not to be a little alarmist when you've done some digging into the figures.
#61 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 01:48 AM
I love how you refer with such absolute certainty to events such as the Medieval Warm Period. It "was not atmospheric" and it "was a local, not a global event. It was a thermal redistribution, not a temperature rise." Meanwhile "our climate situation... is going to be a persistent rise in temperatures as gas concentrations increase."
How can we know what caused weather hundreds of years ago when we can't even predict our current climate?
I'm all for reducing air pollution, but why muddy it up with facile alarmism and wealth redistribution schemes?
#62 Posted by JLD, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 07:43 AM
In all of these journalistic discussions, I have never noticed any journalists following the advice to "follow the money" - Al Gore does not make money off of his book or movie - he has been donating that money - he doesn't need it - he has an investment management firm that advises huge-dollar investors where to invest in order to make money off of the "global warming" carbon management phenomenon. It is perfectly reasonable to see Al Gore as a totally profit-motivated business person, the kind of accusation he throws at the other side. Let's see some journalistic coverage of his investment firm, Generaltion Investment Management, LLP. When did the firm begin? What dollar value do you need to enter his game? What other political figures are involved in this money-making deal? What political figures are having Gore manage their money. thus constituting quite clear conflict of interest on the issue of profession of the carbon-management business? What other similar investment firms are out there helpign large investors make money off of carbon-management business, which will thrive whether anthropotomac global warming is true or not? Is it coincidence that Al Gore's global-carbon-managment-business-investment firm has its 3 locations in the nations that have contributed the greatest funny data (U.S., U.K., Australia)? Why can I, a "democrat" (the old-fashioned kind, not a socialist) and a scientist from a non-climate domain, easily generate these compelling conflict-of-interest questions, yet the entire field of journalism cannot, despite the almost-cliche status of DeepThroat's compelling follow-the-money mantra? Does this business qualify as a practitioner of "insider trading?" This line of investigation clearly shows how small-potato(e)s it is to report on how much carbon emissions Al Gore's home or jet produced last week. Journalism? Hello? Bueller? Bueller?
http://www.generationim.com/
(P.S.: I am not a paid spokesperson for GIM, LLP. That would be Al Gore.)
#63 Posted by MeToo, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 09:46 AM
The argument isn't that the MSM has finally gotten on the story as you document, it is that it took them so long to actually report on the story, which broke in mid november. The earliest reporting in the MSM was around Nov 30th, two weeks later, after MSM articles on climate change had been pummelled for weeks by comments from readers about climategate which were consistently either ignored, or deleted, by newspaper website moderators.
It was not until FOX News broke the story that the rest of the MSM started following along, initially with stories that accepted the "nothing to see, move along" claims of the coconspirators without investigation or even reading the emails in question or the accompanying files. Please don't whitewash this story about the story.
#64 Posted by Mike Lorrey, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 11:29 AM
You also need to mention another few little mentioned email that demonstrates clear illegality: where several are discussing how to fake expense reports to NOAA in order to ensure next years funding is sufficient. Another one discusses structuring payments to russian tree ring researchers so they are below the limits where one is required to report such international payments, partly so the Russians could avoid paying taxes on the money. Structuring of international payments to avoid reporting and evade taxes is illegal in all developed countries.
#65 Posted by Mike Lorrey, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 11:44 AM
Contrary to claims by Thimbles, the Medeival Warm Period was NOT a local phenomena. This is commonly promoted by the AGW industry but is entirely false. And despite his claims to you, Michael Mann has spent a lot of research time trying to debunk the existence of the MWP and the Little Ice Age (his famous Hockey Stick, which Gore waves around despite being debunked in Congressional testimony and published literature).
Andrew Lorrey et al (2007) Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quarternary International, V187, 52-75.
Clearly establishes both MWP and LIA in the Carbon14 and Oxygen18 isotope proxy records in cave speleotherms in New Zealand. This is but one of dozens of studies covering regions around the world supporting the existence of both LIA and MWP climate periods. Mann et al try to claim that if MWP and LIA existed it was limited only to Northern Europe, but the published record says otherwise. This is the real 'denialism' going on in climate research.
#66 Posted by Mike Lorrey, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 11:54 AM
The argument isn't that they missed this story, print media didn't - tv media did, it's that tv media in particular misses MANY substantive stories because they would rather talk about white house party crashers, spock president narratives, and horse race politics. They want to tak about things they know and what they know is gossip. Do you think the political pundit press know what the medieval warm period was? Do you think they give a fig about climate change? When Al Gore ran for president, he lost to a functional illiterate because Maureen Dowd and her crowd thought the presidential candidate was a robot. How did they to the tin man conclusion? By listening to him talk all the time about policy this and global warming that and social security fund lockbox blah blah blah BORING. Think I exagerate?
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/14/opinion/liberties-belaboring-not-bedazzling.html
The vice president spoke 1,565 words, really, really slowly, with glacial pauses between each word. He propounded and expounded for more than 15 minutes, touching on such diverse topics as the human genome, the ice-free future of the Arctic Ocean, the ''Star Wars'' journey, the climate of New York City, federal entitlements, the climate of Atlanta, embassy security, the climate of Illinois, Individual Development Accounts, the climate of Oklahoma and the state of the U.S. economy in 1835. But despite some prodding, he never did get around to answering.
He simply kept exhaustively not answering in that formal voice that sounds as though he has to guide his listeners by the hand, no matter how well they know the subject.
All . . . those . . . drawn . . . out . . . syllables . . . signifying . . . nothing . . . had . . . a . . . soporific . . . effect . . . on . . . me.
These people wanted to talk about their gadfly crap, about who invented the internet and how Gore needs a woman like Naomi to dress him like a man, then the fact that the one candidate was completely unknowledgeable and unserious about any topic other than brush, which meant he would be dependent on the judgment of others, who were likely the people involved with and funding his campaign.
They don't care about those realities, it never enters their minds because these people are focused on day to day popularity contests and not policy.
Therefore the coverage is about rumors and trivia and incidents that confirm good old narratives about who's a maverick and who's a vulcan and who's a pervert and who's a robot.
Your global warming bull matters to them as much as our Downing Street Memos did. It's not a sound bite. It's not going to fit into the tv format. This is the kind of coverage that makes TV. (Bill Nye versus Ted Lindzen from 2 years ago)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McsZ1U20W0M
Stupid, uniformed debates between celebrities with surface knowledge on one side and a disingenuous skeptics on the other that leaves you confused or leaves you convinced of something wrong. AND POLAR BEARS! EVERY MOMENT, CUTE POLAR BEARS. OMG, HOW IMPORTANT POLAR BEARS MUST BE! This is your stupid media staffed by pretty actors who dance on tv until the commercial break. Like many, they don't have the knowledge nor the will to digest a hacked climatologist email archive. They need people to chew it up and regurgitate it into a nice slanderous narrative about climate science.
pt 2 later
#67 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 12:41 PM
Curtis,
1) This was a leak or an accident*, not a hack. The proof is in the selection of what the zip-file contained, and its name. No hacker would've been able to collect such a diverse set of content, yet all connected and relevant.
2) It's possible that within this data there's more than what a quick read-through of the emails alone shows. At least someone seems to think that there's raw data here, data that according to Phil J has been lost forever (or deleted on his request .. ):
"QED: Climategate proves there is no AGW. No wonder CRU hid the data and the decline."
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11732
(PS: "hide the decline" has nothing to do with temperatures during the 20th century. It's all about getting rid of the MWP and the LIA)
*) http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/23/the-crutape-letters%C2%AE-an-alternate-explanation/
#68 Posted by Troed, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 12:43 PM
We're not dealing wit a partisan story when it comes to journalism, we're dealing with a competence story. These are people who want to talk about reality tv and social secretaries instead of national security letters and reauthorized Patriot Acts.
http://www.alternet.org/rights/144170/obama_quietly_backs_renewing_patriot_act_surveillance_provisions/
Hate to break it to you but alot of these people in the tv, pundit, Washington world care about their power, they don't care about their jobs.
And people who don't care about their jobs don't do good jobs. This is one of the reasons why sometimes the best journalism of today comes out of partisan sources like blogs because activists care in abundance.
Of course, one has to be careful that passion doesn't interfere with integrity, but those who lack passion often don't have integrity to begin with. The Washington gossip crowds are not motivated by their love of the job nd they have no gauge of what is truly important for the public to know, They don't care.
It's too bad because integrity does sell when it's offered.
#69 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 7 Dec 2009 at 12:54 PM
I agree with your point about narrative. This is one reason why the story is sticking and the scientists claims that "this doesn't change the fact that its still warming" doesn't matter. People are pissed that they've been lied to and deceived by the people who they've always been told are professional truth tellers.
#70 Posted by Mike Lorrey, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 08:01 AM
Clearly establishes both MWP and LIA in the Carbon14 and Oxygen18 isotope proxy records in cave speleotherms in New Zealand. This is but one of dozens of studies covering regions around the world supporting the existence of both LIA and MWP climate periods. Mann et al try to claim that if MWP and LIA existed it was limited only to Northern Europe, but the published record says otherwise. This is the real 'denialism' going on in climate research.
That doesn't change my point. The carbon 14 isotopes indicate there likely was a period of solar variability (let's explain the science for other readers. Periods of high solar activity tend to react with the earth's magnetic field and blot out cosmic radiation that changes the carbon 12 to carbon 14. Times of high solar activity produce lower levels of carbon 14 absorption in tree rings and ice cores, Times of low solar activity produce more carbon 14. Oxygen 18 is more complex, but, to keep it short, it varies with temperature)
(PS: I'm hedging my words because I am not an expert doing the research, I am interpreting the research to the best of my ability)
So during the MWP the tree rings show there was a low amount of carbon 14 and during the LIA there was a high amount. That indicates there were changes in solar activity and the increased thermal energy changed some weather patterns.
Note my wording. Increased thermal energy, not temperature. The increase in thermal energy likely drove climate anomalies all over the globe. However negative feedbacks also occurred which caused some areas to cool and other areas to heat. Therefore, when you add up all the temperature changes, they pretty much sum each other out. So the temperature increase was largely local.
But let's assume that the MWP global temperature change is equal to the current temperature change, about .8°C. That temperature change was driven by solar variability which tapped out at .8°C and eventually retreated into the Maunder Minimum LIA period.
We're talking about a different driver now. Our current emissions to date have put us at .8°C and those emissions aren't slowing down. The sun just went through a solar minimum period which produced the hottest decade on record with the hottest years on record exempting the high solar activity year of 1998 which coincided with a killer El Nino. We aren't cooling down when we should be. Temperature sensitive events are occurring earlier in the calender. Ice is melting. Etc etc..
These things are not being driven by mildly fluctuating solar changes which take a generation to sort out. We've hit .8° as our starting point, and we're still putting gas in the sky.
And we're putting it in the ocean. People forget the ocean is a climate sink. Sinks overflow when they get saturated. Sinks overflow when they boil. The ocean has absorbed about 60% of our annual emissions to the point where it is measurably acidifying and people are worried about the corals which are bleaching as we speak. (This may be more an ocean temperature issue currently, but all shell fish and corals will have trouble with their shells if the ocean they swim in dissolves them faster than they can make them)
Those sinks are filling and they are warming up, and if GHG continues trap thermal energy and drive temperatures upwards, then those sinks will fail and will become carbon producers and not carbon sequesters
It doesn't appear we need to wait for that anymore since it is happening. (Sorry to repost the link)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/02/AR2009120203732.html
The MWP was very different in nature than what we have now. The MWP hit it's apex, at best, where we are now - and we are just getting started.
#71 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 02:10 PM
Brother Thimbles reads from the Book of Gore: "The MWP was very different in nature than what we have now"
padikiller: Tell us, oh Brother Thimbles, precisely which "scientific" authority supports this ridiculous assertion.
#72 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 04:08 PM
"During the last 20-30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade." -- The report of the National Science Board, 1974
#73 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 05:26 PM
CJR should put a sign up warning people about the troll under its bridge.
#74 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 09:11 PM
Thimbles, the temperature anomaly for the last decade has been nowhere near 0.8 degrees, its been floating between 0 and 0.4 with a mean of about 0.15. I realize your Saint Gore is telling you otherwise, but his movie can't be shown in British schools anymore without first reading a list of the 9 most blatant falsehoods in the movie, under court order.
As for calling padikiller a troll, now you are descending into ad hominem attacks which is typical of AGW alarmists when their claims are falsified or appeals to authority aren't given automatic credence.
As for the MWP, it was global, and it was significantly warmer than now, somewhere between 1-4 degrees warmer. There was no collapse of the polar ice caps, though southern Greenland was habitable and was colonized by the Vikings (yes, Leif Erikkson and his folk) before going on to discover Newfoundland.
If you have not noticed, the sun has been entering for the last three years a drastic period of solar minimum activity that has not been seen since the Little Ice Age. Solar astronomers are predicting a cooling of 1.0-1.5 C by 2020, which should put us solidly back into LIA territory. IF we happen to have any Pinatubo or larger volcanic eruptions in the next decade, we could easily reach a tipping point and enter an Ice Age, and I guarantee you that a cold Earth is far more damaging to the economy, and less pleasant to live through, than a little more warmth.
#75 Posted by Mike Lorrey, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 09:50 PM
No, I'm not decending into ad homineim attack on paddy, I spent an entire thread discussing with paddy and it wasn't productive.
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/lets_get_this_party_organized.php#comments
I haven't called you names and I won't as long as I don't have to explain the same point three times and demand explanation of a point a dozen times like one has to do with Ouija science paddy.
Now if you have a problem with my .8° change figure, you'l have to take that up with NASA. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
If you'd rather not take it up with NASA because they're full of crap, then take it up with Ted Lindzen.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008220
First, let's start where there is agreement. The public, press and policy makers have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a degree since the late 19th century; levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased by about 30% over the same period; and CO2 should contribute to future warming. These claims are true.
I don't know if you're confusing the margin of error with the actual measure, but the measure of about a degree is pretty well established.
As for the MWP, it was global, and it was significantly warmer than now, somewhere between 1-4 degrees warmer.
If it was that much warmer, and there have been times in Earth's past when solar forcing made it that much warmer, it would have been catastrophic. We're seeing 10,000 year old ice formations melting into the sea at less than a degree change. The medieval warm period, you say, was four times stronger and it lasted for half a century.
Can't say I agree. Global temperature changes over centuries have caused mass extinction events. The MWP, LIA periods were quite a swing, but they didn't melt 10,000 year old ice over the hundreds of years they occurred and they didn't cause mass extinctions. There were local temperature changes of 4°C's and more, but the globe didn't swing that far.
We've had about +1° change since the 1950's, less than a century.
We careful with your figures, you might be confusing some of them.
#76 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 10:49 PM
No, I'm not decending into ad homineim attack on paddy, I spent an entire thread discussing with paddy and it wasn't productive.
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/lets_get_this_party_organized.php#comments
I haven't called you names and I won't as long as I don't have to explain the same point three times and demand explanation of a point a dozen times like one has to do with Ouija science paddy.
Now if you have a problem with my .8° change figure, you'l have to take that up with NASA. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
(pt 2 in a bloody second (hate the two link system. Captcha isn't enough?)
#77 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 10:52 PM
If you'd rather not take it up with NASA because they're full of crap, then take it up with Ted Lindzen.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008220
First, let's start where there is agreement. The public, press and policy makers have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a degree since the late 19th century; levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased by about 30% over the same period; and CO2 should contribute to future warming. These claims are true.
I don't know if you're confusing the margin of error with the actual measure, but the measure of about a degree is pretty well established.
As for the MWP, it was global, and it was significantly warmer than now, somewhere between 1-4 degrees warmer.
If it was that much warmer, and there have been times in Earth's past when solar forcing made it that much warmer, it would have been catastrophic. We're seeing 10,000 year old ice formations melting into the sea at less than a degree change. The medieval warm period, you say, was four times stronger and it lasted for half a century.
Can't say I agree. Global temperature changes over centuries have caused mass extinction events. The MWP, LIA periods were quite a swing, but they didn't melt 10,000 year old ice over the hundreds of years they occurred and they didn't cause mass extinctions. There were local temperature changes of 4°C's and more, but the globe didn't swing that far.
We've had about +1° change since the 1950's, less than a century.
We careful with your figures, you might be confusing some of them.
#78 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 10:53 PM
If you take the AGW people at their words...
Then over the last 100 + years, the global average temperature has increased less than a single degree Kelvin (right at 0.8 degrees).
Now, the average temperature of the Earth is about 300K... So the "increase" amounts to a change of 0.8 divided by 300 or a great big huge whopping 0.266 percent... That's right... The AGW lunatics are up in arms over an "increase" of a lousy quarter of a percent in the AVERAGE temperature over more than a century.
This is a statistically meaningless deviation. They skew the graphs to make the curves look steep by cherry picking average sampling periods and inflating the axes on the graphs, but the sky is not falling.
Just look at this voodoo crapola that passes for "science" at RealClimate...
"The overlaps complicate things, but it’s clear that water vapour is the single most important absorber (between 36% and 66% of the greenhouse effect), and together with clouds makes up between 66% and 85%. CO2 alone makes up between 9 and 26%, while the O3 and the other minor GHG absorbers consist of up to 7 and 8% of the effect, respectively."...
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/
So... Water vapor (which is a MUCH stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 - the EPA had better regulate it NOW!) has a "scientifically" calculated proportional effect on "warming" of our globe of anywhere between 36 and 66 percent.
RIGHT... It either catches a third of the Earth's escaping heat, or two thirds. What difference does an uncertainty of measly 100 percent make, right?
And then there's CO2... It stops anywhere from 9 to 26 of the "trapped" global heat that threatens our drowning polar bears. But hey, that's only an uncertainty of THREE HUNDRED PERCENT!...
I know.. I know... I'm a "troll"... But I know how to read, count, and think for myself.
#79 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 8 Dec 2009 at 11:13 PM
Then over the last 100 + years, the global average temperature has increased less than a single degree Kelvin (right at 0.8 degrees).
50 years. Look at the NASA graphs I posted, carefully.
Now, the average temperature of the Earth is about 300K... So the "increase" amounts to a change of 0.8 divided by 300 or a great big huge whopping 0.266 percent... That's right... The AGW lunatics are up in arms over an "increase" of a lousy quarter of a percent in the AVERAGE temperature over more than a century.
Meaningless. "Dah yeah, compared to absolute 0, the temperature change is really small percent yeah. Dah."
Yes, but compared it absolute zero, the earth is on fire! Hydrogen is boiling! OMG! Why is the earth so hot compared to deep space?
Let's use earth temperatures as our starting point, please. We're talking about the temperature window in which mainstream life exists and how that is affected by temperature shifts big and small. Not much lives at absolute zero, + or - .8°C, so it's kind of silly to bring it up.
"The overlaps complicate things, but it’s clear that water vapour is the single most important absorber (between 36% and 66% of the greenhouse effect), and together with clouds makes up between 66% and 85%. CO2 alone makes up between 9 and 26%, while the O3 and the other minor GHG absorbers consist of up to 7 and 8% of the effect, respectively."...
So... Water vapor (which is a MUCH stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 - the EPA had better regulate it NOW!) has a "scientifically" calculated proportional effect on "warming" of our globe of anywhere between 36 and 66 percent.
RIGHT... It either catches a third of the Earth's escaping heat, or two thirds. What difference does an uncertainty of measly 100 percent make, right?
And then there's CO2... It stops anywhere from 9 to 26 of the "trapped" global heat that threatens our drowning polar bears. But hey, that's only an uncertainty of THREE HUNDRED PERCENT!...
Is the earth a test tube? No. Is the climate uniform? No. Does the climate change over time? Yes. Is it better to give a range of effect over a variety of regions during a variety of times than a answer that's right for one second in Cincinnati? Yes.
For an example of regional difference, the water vapor greenhouse effect is strong in the tropics but weaker in the arctic. Why? Condensation. There's less vapor in cold regions. Is the percentage of CO2 GHG heating be greater in the arctic? Yes, because there is higher ratio of CO2 to H2O vapor in the atmosphere. It's not uncertainty, it's variability. That variability (over time and region) causes uncertainty.
But hey, let's use the low ball calculation as to what effect CO2 has on our climate, 9%. Carbon Dioxide made up .028% of the atmosphere (280ppm) in preindustrial times. It's now .0387% of the atmosphere (387ppm), which is an increase of 38%. That translates into a 3.8% increase in GHG temperature. And if you multiply that by 300° Kelvin you get 10.8° OMG! (The sword cuts both ways). Without any greenhouse effect of which CO2 is a 9% part, you would have a -18°C planet, some estimate. The preindustrial average global temp was about 0°C (so GW is a +18°C effect). 9% of that effect is carbon (1.62°) which has increased 38% (.62° change). If we stopped there maybe we'd have no worries, but China and India are going to exceed American wealth and growth, remember? So Carbon rates are going to grow and temperatures are going to heat and carbon is going to occupy a greater percentage of the reason why.
And the oceans, which have absorbed 60% of our carbon emissions and are holding it in a tank, are going to leak as temperatures increase creating even more higher temperatures.
So yeah, you say you know how to read, count, and add, but do you really?
#80 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 04:56 AM
I was in a rush so I hit post before I could carefully check my figures. (This isn't supposed to take up a large time of my life. I'm neither a journalist nor a climatologist.)
The difference between the earth with a GH and the earth without one is 33°C according to here.
http://www.chemistryexplained.com/Ge-Hy/Global-Warming.html
Also 38% of 9% = 3.4% increase in GHG temperature
Got to run again, but I'll update when I get some time.
#81 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 06:04 AM
Thimbles babbled: "Let's use earth temperatures..."
padikiller besmirks: What in the Hell are "earth temperature" units?... The standard scientific unti of temperature is the degree Kelvin... Let's stick with real units, OK?
Thimbles waxes Orwellian: "It's not uncertainty, it's variability. That variability (over time and region) causes uncertainty."
padikiller scoffs: The long and short of it is... We don't know exactly what part, on the global scale, CO2 and water vapor play in the greenhouse effect. And on top of this, according to none other than Michael Mann, we don't know whether increased greenhouse gases will result in temperature gains or losses, because we the crude models we have at present "are in disagreement"...
CO2 is plant food. Increasing the CO2 concentration will unquestionably increase plant growth and reduce this concentration- but none of the AGW lunatics can put a number on it...
You loons have nothing but a pseudscientific religion going on.
#82 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 10:29 AM
The lowball assumes a 38% increase in a quantity that produces 9% of a +33° warming effect = .38 * .09 * 33 = 1.13°.
The lowball assumes a 38% increase in a quantity that produces 26% of a +33° warming effect = .38 * .26 * 33 = 3.3°. (maybe this is why the arctic is experiencing a higher relative temperature rise since carbon takes a higher percentage GHG role)
Let's use the skeptic figures:
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/
Given the present composition of the atmosphere, the contribution to the total heating rate in the troposphere (the portion of the atmosphere of most interest -- it is the region from the surface to basically the top of the active weather zone) is around 5% from carbon dioxide and around 95% from water vapor.
A 38% increase in a quantity that produces 5% of a +33° warming effect= .63°
PS. These calculations do not enumerate the many positive and negative feedbacks that are triggered by thermal energy accumulation.
So we've looked at what has happened so far with the 38% increase, now let's go to double pre industrial CO2 levels. 560ppm = a 100% increase = 1
Lowball = 3° increase
Highball = 8.6° increase
Skeptical Ball= 1.7° increase
In how long? Less than a century if CO2 emissions keep growing. Is that all the temperature is going to raise? No. This much thermal energy is going to trigger other temperature raising feedbacks.
I keep saying, the sea ice was the arctic ocean's sunscreen. That is going and will soon be gone. Nothing we can do about that. Any model of future temperature will have to account for an increase in the biggest GHG of them all, water vapor and the effect of the heating ocean on its emissions. 20 years ago, 10 years ago should have been the time to do something.
Right now, we might be like guys on a plane out of gas. We're gliding, but the crash is coming no matter what we do now, since we didn't do anything when we had more control. The earth's tank may well be empty and in that case there's nothing further than can be done but brace for impact.
And if we do get through this crash, the passengers who were warning for decades and were ridiculed by people like you are going to point you out and ask, "Are you satisfied? People listened to you and this nauseated earth is where you led us. Are you happy? Nobody became a socialist. You won."
It may well be that gloating will be the last act of our stupid civilization. What a way to exit.
Cheers
#83 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 10:41 AM
MWP Greenland Viking Choir:Trolls Trolls Trolls Trolls, Lovely trolls, they're wonderful trolls!
#84 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 10:47 AM
Science Hour with Thimbles: The lowball assumes a 38% increase... (maybe this is why the arctic is experiencing a higher relative temperature rise... the contribution to the total heating rate in the troposphere... is around... if CO2 emissions keep growing... Right now, we might.... The earth's tank may well be empty... and in that (purely hypothetitical) case there's nothing further than can be done but brace for impact.
padikiller: "Assumes"? "Maybe"? "Around"? "If"? "Might"? "May"? "In that case"?
Yeah, Brother Thimbles, you've got some rock-solid science going on there! Father Gore has trained you well! Save the Polar Bears!
#85 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 11:28 AM
Yo, Curtis Brainard.
James Fallows wrote a piece on the Climate gate journalism contrasting the Washington Post's "gotcha" spirit versus the Times shoulder shrug.
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/12/they_could_study_this_in.php
The two stories are worth reading in full, and side-by-side. I won't belabor all the contrasts and implications but will make this point: A very frequent criticism of the mainstream press is that reporters are hesitant to say, "This is true, and that is false." Instead, they usually feel safest in the "critics contend" zone, "neutrally" reporting what each side says. Eg, "Critics contend that the health-care reform bill will require the elderly to face 'death panels'; Administration officials disagree."
In this case one big-time paper, the Post, sticks with "critics contend," while the other presents a contrast between "decades of peer-reviewed science" and politically-motivated opposition. Moreover, the NYT presents the controversy as something that might get in the way of deliberations in Copenhagen; while the Post presents it as a scandal in which "wonky" emails may not constitute "proof" that climate change is a "lie or a swindle" but still justify introducing "lie" and "swindle" as possibilities.
Not to overdramatize, but: in a way the papers are betting their reputations with these articles. The Times, that climate change is simply a matter of science versus ignorance; the Post, that this is best treated as another "-Gate" style flap where it's hard to get to the bottom of the story. While I don't claim to be a climate expert, the overwhelming balance of what I've read convinces me that the Times's approach is right. For now, I'm mainly noting the stark contrast.
#86 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 11:30 AM
ARGH! WHY DO THEY KEEP PUTTING BILL NYE THE SCIENCE GUY, FORMER ALMOST LIVE COMEDIAN, ON AGAINST PROFESSIONAL DENIALISTS?!?!? CNN YOU SUCK!!
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/ac-360-climategate-debate
At least they didn't go with the barely english literate Russian vs the half bird Weatherman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anHuOAXIl0M
TV Media, you are pathetic.
#87 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 12:16 PM
The lowball assumes a 38% increase... (maybe this is why the arctic is experiencing a higher relative temperature rise... the contribution to the total heating rate in the troposphere... is around... if CO2 emissions keep growing... Right now, we might.... The earth's tank may well be empty... and in that (purely hypothetitical) case there's nothing further than can be done but brace for impact.
padikiller babbles: "Assumes"? "Maybe"? "Around"? "If"? "Might"? "May"? "In that case"?
Hey Paddy, I did mention in my previous posts:
"I'm hedging my words because I am not an expert doing the research, I am interpreting the research to the best of my ability"
"This isn't supposed to take up a large time of my life. I'm neither a journalist nor a climatologist."
I'm at least trying to explain what I've been researching and trying to have an open discussion about it. I'm at least trying to answer some of the criticisms while making an effort to understand skeptic data.
You don't do likewise. You make no defense of what you hold true. As far as I know from our discussions, you don't have any beliefs except "scientists are socialists". You don't want to communicate, you want to hoot and holler. Go do so all you like.
But know this, I don't know what you believe, but I know you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_faInfFMtr4
#88 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 12:57 PM
The Goracle is out lying to the press, claiming that the most recent of the Climategate emails is more than ten years old, when in fact it dates from November of this year...
Why does the MSM let these AGW looines get away with such obvious obfuscation?
#89 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 01:03 PM
And this would be the very same Al Gore, who recently told us that the temperature a few miles under the Earth's crust is "millions" of degrees.
Why anyone listens to this chump on any subject other than failed poltical policies... I'll never understand.
The man's a scientific ignoramus who has no respect for the truth.
#90 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 01:20 PM
News for you paddy, I don't listen to Al Gore. People shouldn't listen to Al Gore. He's a celebrity like Bill Nye. He has a half understanding of the research.
They should do their own research with an open mind.
I wasn't convinced by his movie, I was convinced by the science and the visible signs that were appearing in the Canadian forests I lived around (pine beetles, increased melts, wicked forest fires, really weird weather the last few years).
And I would love for a skeptic to describe what is happening. Is CO2 and other GHG's going up, or not? Is that causing an increase in temperature or not? Is anything happening or not? If something is happening, what is your explanatin of the mechanism? If nothing is happening, what is your explanation for the ice melt that IS HAPPENING?
Come up with a better story and I may believe you. Keep yapping about Al Gore and silly crap about emails and rational people will dismiss you, because you have no explanation of your own. You can only attack pieces of a puzzle you're not even attempting to understand while you throw rocks at it.
If you've got better science, science that is an honest attempt to explain a process taking place in our world, then show it.
It shouldn't be too much to ask. I've tried, using the tools and training I have at hand and I'm not an expert.
Why should the skeptical side of the aisle be allowed to wave stolen emails and call that a scientific argument? If that is all you've got, it's weak.
#91 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 06:28 PM
Thimbles yearns for a new religion: "Come up with a better story and I may believe you."
padikiller responds: You don't want science... You want a Messiah...
Science isn't about "coming up with a story" or "believing" anything to suit your narratives or narrow world view - no matter how many beetles you think you've seen treated intemperately..
It is about hypothesizing and experiment. It is about investigation and openness. It is about collaboration and cooperation.
Cruise through the the emails your AGW disciples wrote and show me where any of these basic tenets come into play.
In the place of these there has been obfuscation, avoidance, evasion, intolerance, collusion and fraud.
When Michael Mann wrote to his AGW coconspirators in 2005 that he knew that there had been cooling for the last eight years, but that the scientific community would go nuts if he said so... He committed academic and scientific fraud. PERIOD. It ain't complicated, Brother Thimbles.
So if you want a new "story" to "believe", look to Bigfoot or the Space Aliens..
The fact that AGW pseudoscientists have concocted conclusions from models they admit are "in disagreement" does not require the substitution of another fairy tale. How about accepting uncertainty? How about inquiry?
#92 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 07:51 PM
Blah blah blah, deflection deflection, another douchey post by paddy. You say a lot about the stuff you're against, but nothing about what you're for. Paddy doesn't believe in "pseudoscience", that's for sure, but he won't define his science.
You have no alternative, and judging from the content of your posts, you don't bother searching for one. That's a basic tenant of scientific inquiry you know, bothering to search? Coming up with your own models? Attempting to understand the world on the terms you hypothesize to be true, instead of exclusively attacking everyone else's attempts?
You do none of this, so you are not worth listening to.
QED Troll.
#93 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 09:20 PM
PS. How about accepting uncertainty? Funny you should mention that after ranting about my hedged wording,
What's that french word for shower again?
#94 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 09:27 PM
Thimbles wrote: You say a lot about the stuff you're against, but nothing about what you're for. Paddy doesn't believe in "pseudoscience", that's for sure, but he won't define his science.
padikiller responds: Baloney!
When I say I'm "for" inquiry and investigation.... What more do you want?
The science just isn't there, Dude... Your own disciple, Michael Mann, has plainly stated that the models are "in disagreement" about the effect (if any) of increased greenhouse gas concentrations...
Science first... Policy second....
That's what I advocate...
#95 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 10:00 PM
I want answers to my inquiries, which I listed above, and in the previous discussion, "punk", but you're making me repeat myself too much so I'm no really interested anymore.
The funny thing is, in all of my discussions, I have not advocated a single policy. I have been nailing down the science only and getting called names like socialist, cultist, and liberal when all I have been talking about is the science. What one wants to do based on the science is their own business, on policies we can yappity yap on differences of opinion, but the science I have been asking for and trying to clarify the truth alone.
And you've fought that process pretty hard for some reason. That doesn't sound like inquiry first.
PS. As I mentioned before, in our previous discussion, you are overstating the conclusions of Michael Mann's La Nina research of the MWP.
PPS. As I mentioned before, in our previous discussion, the earth is not cooling. It's warming based on trends previous to 1998 and after 1998. One freak year does not disprove the trend.
PPPS. If the earth was cooling, where's all the new ice?
PPPPS. You're not allowed to use the phrases "Says WHO" and "SO WHAT". You've abused them and polluted the discussion with them. I will charge you a tax for every statement you emit like these in future.
Thank you for your co-operation.
#96 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 10:18 PM
Thimbles dodges reality: "The funny thing is, in all of my discussions, I have not advocated a single policy."
padikiller scoffs: Who do you think you are fooling here, Brother Thimbles? You stated right here that your faith that a 60 ppm reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentrations would save the world from the searing fate of dealing with Siberian methane.... This silly assertion is a matter of record.
Thimbles yaps: "As I mentioned before, in our previous discussion, the earth is not cooling. "
padikiller responds: That's not what Michael Mann said. He maide it clear that the Earth had cooled in the eight years prior to 2005.
Thimbles pontificates: "You're not allowed to use the phrases "Says WHO" and "SO WHAT"."
padikiller defies: "Says WHO?" You? So WHAT? What giives you the authority to dictate the tone of this debate?"
#97 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 9 Dec 2009 at 10:37 PM
What giives you the authority
I'm afraid this emitted sentence is much too similar to the banned emissions previously discussed. Please forfeit your fine of five dollars and one genuine American Constitution.
Please have a seat and someone will be around to offer you a crayon and help you fill out your forms.
#98 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 10 Dec 2009 at 12:23 AM
Armed U.N. goons (doing the bidding of Stanford University personnel) silence an accredited journalist asking uncomfortable questions about climategate emails:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUtzMBfDrpI&feature=player_embedded
And the MSM yawns.
Nothing to see here, people... Move on...
#99 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 12 Dec 2009 at 10:15 AM
"The 1,073 e-mails examined by the AP show that scientists harbored private doubts, however slight and fleeting, even as they told the world they were certain about climate change. However, the exchanges don't undercut the vast body of evidence showing the world is warming because of man-made greenhouse gas emissions."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gRa5F7Lv_zO0ZKaHmbQENlyV3KdgD9CHPLC00
#100 Posted by Max, CJR on Sat 12 Dec 2009 at 04:35 PM
You've gotta love the AP spin doctors...
It's not "lying"... It just "harboring private doubts... even as they told the world they were certain..."
And "however slight andt fleeting" these doubts may have been, they don't "undercut" the Gorian nonsense..
So when Michael Mann acknowledged in a 2005 email that 1. The world had cooled for the prior 8 years, and 2. The scientific community would go nuts if he published the truth instead of fiction... This is just a "slight and fleeting" doubt, right?....
#101 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 12 Dec 2009 at 05:39 PM
2005, Hottest year on record. Hotter than 1998. I know what you're going to say, "SAYS WHO?" But the fact is I say this based on better authority than 3/4ths of your claims paddy.Why? Because my claims don't come out of your ass, which is where 3/4ths of your claims originate.
PS. Good videos, covering he facts of the Climategate claims:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P70SlEqX7oY pt 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJFZ88EH6i4
PPS.You still owe five dollars and a single testicle. Produce either if you are capable.
#102 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 10:05 AM
Thimbles blithered: "2005, Hottest year on record. Hotter than 1998."...
padikiller rings the Reality Bell:
Here is what the director of the CRU had to say about global temps in 2005.
From: Phil Jones
To: John Christy
Subject: This and that
Date: Tue Jul 5 15:51:55 2005
...
"...The scientific community would come down on me in no
uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only
7 years of data and it isn't statistically significant."
#103 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 11:13 AM
Thimbles,
On the subject of pulling claims out of your nether regions...
Perhaps you could tell where you retrieved the 60 ppm reduction in atmospheric CO2 that you claimed will save the polar bears from drowning in melt water after an AGW-triggered Siberian Methane Eruption?
How about, Sport? Where did you get that 60 ppm figure?
#104 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 11:25 AM
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
Now I don't want to call you stupid, but the date on that Jones Christy email is from the middle of 2005, therefore it predates the end of 2005, which was when the data used to declare 2005 the hottest year was tabulated.
And a person who is not stupid would understand that and not use that email. You know, the kind of person who knows how to read, count, and think for himself?
I came up with a 60ppm figure as a midpoint between CO2 previous to the industrial age and CO2 now. (About 50 years previous to now.) What I originally said was ,"A little above preindustrial levels should be fine as it suited us throughout the development of human civilization."
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/lets_get_this_party_organized.php#comments
To which you said "First of all... Give us a number. Run your "model" and tell us, oh Climate Exper Emeriust, what precise concentration (or range of concentrations) we should maintain in the earth's atmosphere. Are we going to use the 330 ppm values from the preindustrial warming periods in medieval times? Or why not use the 760 ppm values (twice the current concentration) that existed 28 million years ago?
This simple truth of the matter is that you are just running off at the mouth and that you have no way to actually calculate an "ideal" atmospheric CO2 concentration. You only wish to see CO2 concentrations reduced to "preindustrial"caveman levels, because in your anti-capitalist mindset, industry is evil."
To which I composed the rejoinder "Blow me, you stupid troll" in response.
No. No wait. What from what I see hear I actually said, "Hey, I don't have a problem with 760 ppmv 28 million years from now. If carbon increases or decreases at a slow rate, nature can adjust with minor tweaks to find the new equilibrium. We're on a pace to double carbon dioxide within a century.
That's a big disruption. That doesn't give our current equilibriums, the natural systems we've relied on since humans built huts and traded seashells, time to adjust. A -60 ppmv of today would be a good level to restore so that, I say it again, methane from melting Siberian permafrost doesn't take over.
So that carbon and methane emitted from a heated carbon saturated ocean doesn't take over.
This is not about anti-capitalism, since it will take industry, technology, and investment to produce a society that is capable of meeting our wants while respecting our and the environment's needs. This isn't a step backwards. A step backwards would be pretending that the information within science is wrong because of your religious belief in exploitative capitalism where environmental costs are free. The environment cannot be, as they say in economics, an externalized cost. The environment is not external. It is not free. We cook the golden goose at a cost.
It is a step backwards to pretend there is no cost. The cost will be billions of dollars, if not lives."
To which you said "Says WHO?"
You see, I gave an opinion - an opinion you harangued me for. I didn't say it was based on any models, I didn't quote any authorities, I didn't based my opinion based on the results of any experiments.
You asked me, and then acted like a twat when I made a nice answer based on the fact that I listed.
The fact that "A little above preindustrial levels should be fine as it suited us throughout the development of human civilization."
The fact is maybe that number is wrong. Maybe it's not enough. I haven't run models on the question, I'm not a climatologist.
But, since you're a skeptic and therefore have vastly superior models and knowledge, you must be willing to share some of them.
Did I ask you about your models and information? Oh yes.
#105 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 01:19 PM
padikiller asked: "Thimbles,
On the subject of pulling claims out of your nether regions...
Perhaps you could tell where you retrieved the 60 ppm reduction in atmospheric CO2 that you claimed will save the polar bears from drowning in melt water after an AGW-triggered Siberian Methane Eruption?"
Thimbles responded: Blah, blahh, blah... What I said was... blah, blah, blah... A -60 ppmv of today would be a good level to restore so that, I say it again, methane from melting Siberian permafrost doesn't take over... blah, blah, blah.. I gave an [ignornant, nonscientific] opinion - an opinion you harangued me for. I didn't say it was based on any models, I didn't quote any authorities, I didn't based my opinion based on the results of any experiments.
padikiller's had enough to cut to the quick:
Look... We already KNOW that your silly 60 ppm number came from out of your wazoo... Why not just say so?...
Here are some "inconvenient truths" Al Gore forgot to mention...
1. These scientists are frauds. Phil Jones, the director of the Climate Research Unit is on record, in the email I cited, conspiring with his buddies to keep the truth out of the hands of not the Republicans... not Big Oil.... not Wall Street... but instead out of the hands of the scientific community. Wow. How can anyone defend this crackpot?
2. Nobody can tell us what the "ideal average global temperature" should be. If we're going to toss trillions of dollars at setting the global thermostat- there should be a number. There isn't such a number.
3. The polar bears will make it. They made it through the Medieval Warm Period and they have more than doubled their numbers in the last 60 years. But the larger question is... How many tropical species will be threatened by global cooling? Nobody knows.
4. Plants eat water and CO2 and require heat. Taking the AGW people at their words, and assuming that atmospheric CO2 causes warming (an asumption that even Michal Mann admits we can't make because of "disagreement in the models")- this warming will spur reforestation and agriculture around the globe. Conversely, reducing CO2 concentrations stunts plant growth. With a few billion more people to feed coming in the next few years, we can't afford reduced crop yields.
5. Sea levels are not rising. I've regularly vacationed at the same oceanfront hotel in Virginia Beach for nearly fifty years, and they haven't had to raise the lobby floor a single inch in that time. Al Gore's "6 meter" wall of melt water is just a silly crack dream.
It's hard to believe that so much wrangling is occuring over "opinions" like those Thimbles pulled from thin air...
#106 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 03:46 PM
.5 I told you my assessment of about Al Gore. You can shut up about him now since I'm not using his figures.
1. It's from here:
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=544&filename=1120593115.txt
And it's about this:
Link removed because of spam filter. It's at the bottom of the email.
Phil Jones is telling John Christy, one of the skeptic "good guys"
http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/22/should-you-believe-anything-john-christy-or-roy-spencer-say/
that some guy in Australia is claiming his work is rubbish.
Don't you think that if John Christy considered Phil Jones's email as proof denying GW, he might have released it?
So it did decrease, like we previously discussed, but it was relative to 1998, It was not a decrease compared to the decade of heating past.
Then, in 2005, it increased again.
Hottest recorded decade? This one. The average temperature over 2001-2007 was 14.44 degrees celsius, 0.21 degrees celsius warmer than corresponding values for 1991-2000. .44 degrees over the 1961-1990 long-term average of 14 degrees celsius.
That is statistically significant.
#107 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 10:11 PM
2. that's because it's a DUMB QUESTION, as we discussed before. It's not the change itself, it's the rate of change that's a killer. A perfectly obvious answer would be the one that has worked for human civilization since, oh I don't know, the existence of HUMAN CIVILIZATION. But perfectly obvious doesn't seem to penetrate exquisitely dense minds.
3. As we discussed before, I don't care about the polar bears. Die Die Die polar bears.
4. Plants heat WATER and CO2 and increased temperatures disturb water patterns and plants drown or dry out when that happens. Thus the Amazon Rain forest has been releasing as much carbon as it has previously absorbed, from the article I posted before, because of the heat stress. Perfectly obvious, as I said before, but dense minds and all.
5. Only a moron would use his opinion gathered from his summer vacation experiences to claim a fact about global realities, and then turn and rail about someone else's opinions. It has risen about 20 cm since the beginning of the century. Look it up.
#108 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 10:31 PM
Dude...
You can huff...
You can puff....
But you can't explain away the plain fact that the DIRECTOR of the University of East Anglia;s Climate Research Unit made it clear that he knew that telling the truth to his scientific peers - namely that the Earth cooled from 1998 to 2005 - would cause trouble....
How can you stick up for a "scientist" who plainly stated his intent to hide data from the scientific community?
#109 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 10:39 PM
Thimbles wrote: It [sea level] has risen about 20 cm since the beginning of the century
padikiller: 20 centimeters over the course of 100 years equals 2 lousy millimeters a year...
Now the average depth of the world's oceans is 10,923 metres.
So... Over the course of 100 years, assuming that the AGW loonies are right (a stupid assumption, if there ever was one) the annual rate of change in the sea level is the astounding rate of 0.2 meters divided by 10,923 meters divided by 100 years... Or... Wait for it.... O.OOOO183 percent.
That's right.... O.OOOO183 percent.
We're supposed to toss trillions of dollars at this kooky nonsense?
Now, let's say the oceans are rising at .2 meters per 100 years like these kooky nuts say...
So the frick what?
This amounts to a "rise" of 0.07874 inches per year. This is about the thickness of a quarter... A QUARTER!
The whole thing is just siilly.
#110 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 13 Dec 2009 at 11:46 PM
The data wasn't hidden. Papers were published on it, the findings were widely disseminated. The data indicated that global temperatures had decreased from 1998 levels.
That is, until 2005.
You couldn't make the claim "the globe is cooling" based on a 7 year window in which temperatures weren't decreasing in relation to each other, but in relation to 1998.
He said the cooling data wasn't statistically significant" because it wasn't, and it was a good thing he said that because it wasn't true.
It would be like claiming a man who got the numbers right in a lotto knows how to get all seven numbers right in every lotto.
The earth wasn't cooling. It wasn't true. The earth isn't cooling. It isn't true.
You've used an email interpreted through lunacy and data from one abnormal year to make your case.
That's not enough. Your case is not made. Let me know if your ass have something new to say.
#111 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 14 Dec 2009 at 12:01 AM
Thimbles blithers anon: "The earth wasn't cooling [in the period from 1998 to 2005."
padikiller queries: Then WHY did Phil Jones say it did? The WHY did Phil jones say that if the scientific community learned of the truth, it would go nuts?
Huh?,,,
You still haven't addressed the plain fact that Phil Jones deliberately hid the facts from the scientific community..
#112 Posted by padikiler, CJR on Mon 14 Dec 2009 at 12:11 AM
"Then WHY did Phil Jones say it did?
Because the temperature data indicated a drop from 1998, as I explained before.
"The WHY did Phil jones say that if the scientific community learned of the truth, it would go nuts?"
He didn't. The scientific community knew the data, but it's not science to infer something wrong based on one piece of evidence.
The scientific community would also be angry if a leading scientist said "Ducks are lighter than air. How do I know? Anything heavier than air sinks, everything lighter than air floats. Ducks don't sink in air, therefore ducks are lighter than air."
Nobody suppressed the data that ducks often cruise suspended in air, but the scientific community knows nobody should infer ducks are lighter on air based on that single datapoint.
Because it can be easily be disproved by dropping a wingless duck.
Just like no-one should infer that the earth is cooling based on data in relative to 1998, because it can be easily be disproved by data gathered in 2005.
The scientific community often comes down on stupid people spreading dumb ideas when they should know better. Not controversial.
#113 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 14 Dec 2009 at 01:12 AM
Go on, read the whole thing:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33482750/ns/us_news-environment/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.
"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a microtrend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.
Yet the idea that things are cooling has been repeated in opinion columns, a BBC news story posted on the Drudge Report and in a new book by the authors of the best-seller "Freakonomics." Last week, a poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 57 percent of Americans now believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming, down from 77 percent in 2006.
Global warming skeptics base their claims on an unusually hot year in 1998. Since then, they say, temperatures have dropped — thus, a cooling trend. But it is not that simple.
Since 1998, temperatures have dipped, soared, fallen again and are now rising once more. Records kept by the British meteorological office and satellite data used by climate skeptics still show 1998 as the hottest year. However, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA show 2005 has topped 1998. Published peer-reviewed scientific research generally cites temperatures measured by ground sensors, which are from NOAA, NASA and the British, more than the satellite data.
The recent Internet chatter about cooling led NOAA's climate data center to re-examine its temperature data. It found no cooling trend.
"The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year period of the modern record," said NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt. "Even if you analyze the trend during that 10 years, the trend is actually positive, which means warming."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
And for mr Brainard, the exhaustive AP summary of the emails
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=9319400
------------------------------------------------
The e-mails also show how professional attacks turned very personal. When former London financial trader Douglas J. Keenan combed through the data used in a 1990 research paper Jones had co-authored, Keenan claimed to have found evidence of fakery by Jones' co-author. Keenan threatened to have the FBI arrest University at Albany scientist Wei-Chyung Wang for fraud. (A university investigation later cleared him of any wrongdoing.)
"I do now wish I'd never sent them the data after their FOIA request!" Jones wrote in June 2007.
In another case after initially balking on releasing data to a skeptic because it was already public, Lawrence Livermore National Lab scientist Ben Santer wrote that he then opted to release everything the skeptic wanted — and more. Santer said in a telephone interview that he and others are inundated by frivolous requests from skeptics that are designed to "tie-up government-funded scientists."...
Republican congressmen and former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin have called for either independent investigations, a delay in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulation of greenhouse gases or outright boycotts of the Copenhagen international climate talks. They cited a "culture of corruption" that the e-mails appeared to show.
That is not what the AP found. There were signs of trying to present the data as convincingly as possible...
------------------------------------------------
#114 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 14 Dec 2009 at 01:29 AM
Curtis:
The colossal failure on the part of for instance the NYT in covering this extreme smear campaign has *nothing* to do with a supposed tribalism biased *toward* science or scientists.
That such tribalism is suggested, and then covered by *you,* as if it were a credible charge, is a stunning parallel to the original fabrication of this "sinister" story. Both these tracks manage to get what's at stake more inside-out than any disinformer could possibly hope for.
What has been labeled "sinister," and what should have been labeled "sinister"? On whom should the burden of proof have been?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00656/Cartoon_656336a.jpg
The only tribalism on display is the stunningly bizarre tribal starting point from which some reserve is cautioned, sadly epitomized by Ward's "Take those who see this event as the end of days when it comes to anthropogenic climate change with a huge grain of salt."
No. The recipe does not call for a mere "grain of salt," no matter how large. *That's* what the media got completely wrong, with moral wrongs as a consequence.
The burden of proof rested squarely on anyone who wanted to suggest that the stolen materials possibly *could* "erode" any central part of the science of climate change. Instead of shouldering that burden, media responses ranged from "simply" assuming, taking for granted, that the materials were endowed with this potential power, to claiming that the stolen materials not only had this power but had exercised it.
Please serve the public good by exploring *that* tribalism. For reference, the tribe's name is "uncritical sensationalism."
#115 Posted by paulina, CJR on Thu 17 Dec 2009 at 10:23 AM
Why no curiosity about what the deleted emails contain? You note them only to cast doubt in favor of the researchers.
Apparently the emails were leaked a reporter at the BBC who sat on them for a month. There be consequences for this reporter, and the BBC.
While things like this can change the "system" I don't get why a reporter would sit on a story for so long
wealth management
#116 Posted by Phil N, CJR on Thu 9 Jun 2011 at 09:12 AM