On Monday, I posted a story complaining that, following federal authorities’ announcement that the oil slicks on surface waters were rapidly disappearing, the media failed to stress that the absence of evident oil is not necessarily evidence of absent oil. I just posted an important update to that column, which is worth pulling out into a new post:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Wednesday that about 74 percent of the spilled oil has been dealt with by capture, skimming, burning, evaporation, dissolution and dispersion. The remainder is onshore, still in the water, or buried at the bottom of the Gulf. In a front-page story published before the official announcement, The New York Times reported that the government was “expected” to say that the uncollected oil is “so diluted that it does not seem to pose much additional risk of harm.”
Well, what the government actually said was, “Less oil on the surface does not mean that there isn’t oil still in the water column or that our beaches and marshes aren’t still at risk.” BBC News reported that, speaking Tuesday, the government’s oil-spill response coordinator, retired Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, “welcomed reports the seal was working, but warned against ‘premature celebration,’ adding there was still much clear-up work to do.” The Times should take that warning to heart. After all, if 26 percent of the total oil spilled is still out there, that’s roughly 1,225,000 barrels (51,450,000 gallons) according to the latest estimate, or more than 4.5-times the amount the Exxon Valdez dumped in the Prince William Sound.
Again, the government said that the remaining quarter of leaked oil poses real risks, and while the Times’s article subtly acknowledges that, it’s not the dominant frame established in the lead and nutgraph.
The risks are further described in the full report (pdf) released by NOAA on Wednesday. “Chemical dispersants were applied at the surface and below the surface; therefore, the chemically dispersed oil ended up both deep in the water column and just below the surface. Dispersion increases the likelihood that the oil will be biodegraded, both in the water column and at the surface. Until it is biodegraded, naturally or chemically dispersed oil, even in dilute amounts, can be toxic to vulnerable species,” the report says. It adds:
Even though the threat to shorelines, fish and wildlife, and ecosystems has decreased since the capping of the BP wellhead, federal scientists remain extremely concerned about the impact of the spill to the Gulf ecosystem. Fully understanding the impacts of this spill on wildlife, habitats, and natural resources in the Gulf region will take time and continued monitoring and research.
The Times’s decision to jump the gun and report an apparent lack of risk before seeing the actual report was grossly irresponsible. [Correction, 6:00 p.m.: Earlier today, I got an e-mail from the environment editor at the Times, Erica Goode, who tells me that the Times did, in fact, have an advanced copy of Wednesday’s report before the paper went to press. So I, too, am guilty of jumping the gun here, and regret that error.
I asked Goode why, given the report in its possession, the Times had expected federal officials to say that the lingering oil doesn’t pose much additional risk of harm. Here is her response: “The lede of the story was not offering a direct quote from the report — it was summarizing what the whole report said and what its implications were (in that sense, announce may not have been the best word). Note that the piece included many caveats — including the fourth graf, which quotes Lubchenco saying that the government remains ‘concerned about the ecological damage that has already occurred and the potential for more.’

It just drives you guys nuts that the truth is coming out about this "disaster"... Namely that there isn't one.
The whole thing has been overblown- People are crowding the pristine, white sand beaches left and right- BP workers are sitting idly in herds because there's nothing to clean up.
Those damned, pesky "fact-thingies" sure do get in the way of advocacy, don't they?
#1 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 07:36 AM
Even if you take the estimates in the report as gospel -- and scientists I talked to did not, characterizing them as WAGs (wild-ass guesses) -- the report says half the oil is still out there somewhere. That's hardly a sign that it's gone. Here's the story: http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/water/effects-from-gulf-oil-spill-far-from-over-experts-say/1113163
#2 Posted by Craig Pittman, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 11:14 AM
Better ask the folks in Alaska if the damage is over when the oil stops leaking.
#3 Posted by Bill Walker, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 12:52 PM
MATH HOUR WITH PADIKILLER:
If you take the high estimate, about 190 million gallons of oil entered the Gulf from the BP well. More than half of that has evaporated, been burned off, or been skimmed away.
So that leaves less than 100 million gallons of oil in the Gulf, if you take the highest estimates.
There are 7.5 gallons in a cubic foot, so the oil takes up 13.33 million cubic feet.
This is the volume of a cube 236 feet on each side.
According to WikiAnswers, there are 2,434,000,000,000,000 (2.434 quadrillion) cubic meters of water in the Gulf.
A cubic meter equals 35.314 cubic feet, so there are 85,954,276,000,000,000 cubic feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico.
Recapping...
Total amount of leaked oil in Gulf of Mexico = 13,000,000 cubic feet.
Total amount of water in Gulf of Mexico = 85,954,276,000,000,000 cubic feet.
Oil to water ratio = 0.0000000001512
Less than 1 part in a BILLION
My mother lives on Siesta Key in Sarasota. My brother lives three blocks off the water in Mobile. I have an employee whose parents live in a beachfront condo in Galveston..
There is no oil.
Sorry dudes... Move on to the next progressive non-issue.
#4 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 04:03 PM
Yeah, except there's a bunch of poison emulsifying the oil and a lot of oil is submerged in beach soils and such, everything is fine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzaznBkT0ic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FxfYqnlQ50
Everything is fine, we're just conducting a massive science experiment with unknown, trade secret, toxic chemicals and a bunch of oil in a place where we eat fish. What could go wrong?
Paddy, is there anything you will not troll?
#5 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 04:32 PM
Meanwhile, the crisis to come will be the medical bills from sick clean up workers exposed to the spill and dispersants without proper worker protection BECAUSE BP not only failed to supply it, but they threatened to fire people who brought their own.
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 04:43 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqvZWj4M2X8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zB3rj_usyU
No, I'd stay away from the fish and the sea for a good long time after political pressure has been lifted off the labs and ministries to call off the expensive clean up and to reopen the fisheries
#7 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 04:54 PM
And think of the poor polar bears!
All gooed up with oil to drown in the global warming meltwater!
But seriously...
This whole BP thing is just another overblown anticapitalist crack dream
Did some oil leak? Sure. But oil leaks out into the Gulf from natural seeps all the time.
BP handled the response to the accident nearly flawlessly despite the inept government bungling and hindrance it encountered. (And I'm not blaming Obama for this mess - it was a damned accident)
The oil leak is stopped. The oil that leaked out is being cleaned up. The residue will evaporate or decompose in the warm water.
Throughout this whole story, every morning I've seen some news fluffy on the tube standing on a white beach next to a lone tarball, surrounded by tourists and sunbathers. DISASTER!
Of course, there are locally polluted spots like the single one in the first video Thimbles posted, or the lone bayou in the second - but even there the problem isn't exactly devasting- A little spot of oil on the beach? 23 barrels of oil to clean up? Undoubtedly more oil than this runs into the Gulf from the storm drains in New Orleans.
Just another progressive fairy tale.
#8 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 5 Aug 2010 at 05:58 PM
If it's a non-issue then why is BP spending billions to fix the non-problem?
#9 Posted by Joel, CJR on Sat 14 Aug 2010 at 12:58 AM