Pinpointing the amount of oil lingering in the Gulf of Mexico continues to be a source of frustration for journalists and scientists alike, with multiple, contradictory—if not necessarily “dueling”—research reports having been published on the subject over the last few weeks.
Last month, the federal government released an “oil budget,” which claimed that 74 percent of the crude had essentially been dealt with through skimming, burning, dispersion, evaporation, and other means. Last week, scientists from the University of Georgia contradicted the federal assessment, claiming that as much as 79 percent of the oil spilled remained in the Gulf. A few days after that announcement, scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution reported in the journal Science that they had confirmed the existence of 22-mile-long underwater oil plume near the leaking wellhead in late June, a little more than two weeks before the well was finally capped. Because both the federal government and the University of Georgia’s estimates of the remaining oil were based on incomplete information and not peer-reviewed, many reporters (myself included) turned the Woods Hole paper published in Science to help settle their contradictory findings. That, says one of the authors of that paper, was a big mistake. In column for CNN published Wednesday, Woods Hole’s Christopher Reddy wrote:
Instead of being able to consider our results on the basis of the information alone (“just the facts, ma’am”), readers, viewers and listeners around the world were exposed to newspaper, TV and radio reports clouded with politically charged agendas that were premature at the least and outright wrong at the most.
I must have spoken with at least 25 journalists last week, and despite my every effort to explain our findings, the media were more interested in using the new information to portray a duel between competing scientists. The story turned into an us-versus-them scenario in which some scientists are right and others are wrong. Seeking to elucidate, I felt caught in a crossfire
Even though my colleagues and I repeatedly avoided contrasting our results with previous NOAA estimates that some 75 percent of the spilled oil was already gone from the Gulf, much of last week’s coverage of our work made that a prominent part of the story.
By way of example, Reddy cited an article in The Washington Post, which reported that “Academic scientists are challenging the Obama administration’s assertion that most of BP’s oil in the Gulf of Mexico is either gone or rapidly disappearing — with one group Thursday announcing the discovery of a 22-mile ‘plume’ of oil that shows little sign of vanishing.” I quoted a similar sentence from The New York Times in a review of the coverage last week. Such reporting, Reddy argues, cast the Woods Hole paper as evidence that the NOAA estimates were wrong and that the University of Georgia was right:
Neither of these conclusions was ever meant to be drawn from our research on the oil plume. This reasoning implicit in the media coverage was not only premature, but it might turn out to be wrong.
Science does not work that way. It is incremental. It is not a house of cards where one dissenting view leads to a complete collapse. Rather, science is more like a jigsaw puzzle. Each piece is added. Occasionally a wrong piece may be placed, but eventually science will correct it.
As if to illustrate his point, a Science published a paper on Tuesday from scientists at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which found that oil in the twenty-two-mile-long plume near the wellhead was—contrary to the Woods Hole data—biodegrading rapidly. The measurements upon which the Berkeley team based its paper were actually taken before the Wood Hole team measurements, but in a meeting in Seattle on Tuesday, the lead of the Berkeley paper, Terry Hazen, said that in the last three weeks his team hasn’t been able to detect the underwater plume at all.
What is a reporter to do, with so many competing analyses? The simplest answer might be to re-read Reddy’s media criticism in CNN and bear in mind that science is an incremental process, in which a single dataset rarely, if ever, settles a particular debate.

I think the point was missed in this issue. More and more we see 'science' being used for political purposes by both news outlets and NGO's with an agenda. They grab statements that fit their thinking with little vetting while ignoring findings that they find less than helpful. This is being done for political reasons or just to help get research funding for those politically connected. That's what it's about.
#1 Posted by Roger Dinwhittie, CJR on Thu 26 Aug 2010 at 05:05 PM
What's to be done about it?
Here's an idea:
A multimedia wiki, maintained by scientists and science writers, that lays out the lay of the land of a given research area (especially scientific controversies in the news), synthesizes findings, explicitly points out gaps in knowledges and levels of (un)certainty about different pieces of the puzzle, and, crucially, suggests accurate interpretations of the state of knowledge in the light of the messy, incremental nature of science and with an eye towards media framing.
(It would be terrific to go further and connect each research bit to how it is being distorted, selectively emphasized, etc in media and politics, so as to make the full connection.)
The only way to move forward is for journalists, and the public, to learn to live constructively with the scientific controversy and uncertainty.
Yes, sensationalism and conflict sells. But aside from that, practically speaking, it's incredibly difficult to cover technical controversies (harder still when they are politicized, where taking a side can hurt your credibility and misinformation abounds.) There's an unmet need for a research clearinghouse just to let reporters know what is out there, what it means, and how it hangs together. But there's another need, which most journalists/editors who end up covering scientific controversies aren't aware of or don't care about - how to be accurate, or at the very least not be misleading, when science is complicated, probabilistic, and cumulative over timeframes order of magnitude larger than the news cycle.
Journalists won't be the ones to build this digital knowledge bridge. They can't be. Scientists, obviously, are under similar pressures. They get ahead by researching, they don't have particularly strong incentives to go public. And many feel burned by a long history of crappy journalistic coverage. But due to their expertise, they're the only ones who can. Time for somebody to figure out how to sustain such an enterprise.
#2 Posted by JPV, CJR on Fri 27 Aug 2010 at 04:31 PM