Early last month, CJR published an interview with Hans Noel, a Georgetown University political scientist and co-author of The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform. The “key insight” of the book, in Noel’s words, “is to look at presidential nominations not from the point of the view of the people trying to get the nomination, but from the point of view of the party that’s trying to bestow it.” So what does that mean for campaign reporters? According to Noel:
One thing you could do is you could have someone be responsible for learning about what’s going on in Iowa. So they would go and talk to the various party leaders in Iowa, various activists, people who have been influential in earlier campaigns. You would cover Iowa, rather than covering Michele Bachmann in Iowa. It’s daunting to say, go and understand a whole state. It’s harder than it is to follow around a particular candidate. But that is the place where the questions need to be asked.
Via Seth Masket, I see that the Huffington Post is now taking on that challenge, in a unique effort that combines the political and methodological acumen of the Pollster.com crew—whose talents HuffPost acquired last summer—and the local reporting footprint of Patch.com. (Patch is owned by AOL, which bought HuffPost in February.) The site yesterday published the results of its first survey of GOP leaders in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In that initial article, HuffPost’s Mark Blumenthal explained the project:
This first report involves what will be an ongoing effort by our Patch local editors to identify and regularly query a wide swathe of Republican party leaders, local elected officials and campaign activists about the ongoing presidential contest. We are building the list from the ground up, with local editors identifying these influential Republicans with old-fashioned reporting and then asking them to answer questions via email. We are starting in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and plan to both grow the number of participants in those states and expand to other key primary states.
We are calling our participants “Power Outsiders” because these are the people outside-the-beltway who have local influence—which means real power—as the election heats up. You probably won’t recognize their names, but their opinions will likely have great influence on the outcome of caucuses, primaries and elections at the precinct, county and state levels.
While we will ask standardized poll questions, these results cannot be considered a scientific sampling of a larger population. Yet they will amount to the most extensive and systematic effort of its kind to monitor the opinions of Republican activists and party leaders in the early primary and caucus states. As our project expands, we’ll poll influential members of both parties on hot political topics and on issues being ignored in Washington—such as the unfolding unemployment crisis.
This sounds like a great experiment, and congratulations to HuffPost for trying it. As Masket notes, the questions in the initial survey are pretty limited, and the results were hardly earth-shattering—the “Power Outsiders” felt that Michele Bachmann, who won the Ames straw poll, and Rick Perry, who formally entered the race, did the most to help their campaigns over the past week. (Noel, in good social-scientist fashion, told HuffPost that the fact that the “outsiders” views align with the conventional political wisdom doesn’t resolve the question of which way the causality runs.) But as the horse race unfolds, the survey may provide a chance to see the intra-party discussion unfold in something close to real time—and a useful metric against which to measure the national narrative.
I have a few further thoughts, some on coverage of the “invisible primary” and some on how this project fits into political journalism more broadly.
On covering the primary:

I seem to remember a pretty smart guy named Theodore White doing a fair bit of talking to the party insiders for his political coverage. His view was a little more 30,000 feet but, in my recollection, he got a pretty good picture of who was doing what when and where, and even why.
He was slower about getting it out there though.
#1 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Fri 19 Aug 2011 at 02:29 PM
The best article on the real power broker, S&P, is in the National Post today. As background, in Canada we have on occasion been afflicted by the distortion of democracy when the RCMP and even a TV reporter engage in political hit jobs for various personal or institutional advantages. To date, they have been able to get away with it. You might even get appointed to the Senate as a reward.
The S&P downgrade of America does not add up in context, as McLean so brilliantly points out. Yet we have had the somewhat shaky and opportunistic love affair between S&P and Rick Perry. Both with powerful motivations to cement an unethical relationship so as to bury S&P's federal problems in the long run and now practice soft assassination on Obama so that Perry can benefit in the presidential election. This shapes up as being far worse than anything Murdoch has done in America:
Bethany McLean: France deserves a downgrade at least as much as the U.S.
National Post Aug 20, 2011 – 7:30 AM ET | Last Updated: Aug 19, 2011 6:08 PM ET By Bethany McLean
Rick Perry Office of the Governor•P.O. Box 12428•Austin, Texas 78711
Standard & Poor’s Raises Texas’ Credit Ratings to AA+
Bond raters also give Texas TRANs highest rating
Thursday, August 13, 2009 • Press Release
AUSTIN – Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has raised Texas’ issuer credit and general obligation credit ratings to AA+ from AA based on the state’s strong and diverse economy and strong leadership from the governor and Legislature that has left a projected $9 billion in the state’s Rainy Day Fund. S&P also raised its rating on the state’s appropriation debt to AA from AA-.
Is Texas healthy politically? I think not. Did S&P do a sound analysis of that?
#2 Posted by Clayton Burns, CJR on Sat 20 Aug 2011 at 01:12 PM
@Edward Ericson Jr.,
Absolutely. In fact, the authors of The Party Decides cite White in the book, along with a number of other journalists. Of course, White was writing pre-primary reform, and one of their main arguments is that the basic logic of the party coalescing on a candidate wasn't overturned by reform, even if the mechanisms have changed. But one of the interesting things about their party-oriented perspective is how it dovetails with what the most astute political reporters already knew.
I think it's exciting, though, to see that perspective become more broadly held -- and to see journalists experiment with new forms of reporting informed by that perspective.
#3 Posted by Greg Marx, CJR on Mon 22 Aug 2011 at 12:39 PM