The counterintuitive story is a staple of journalism, especially of the business press. When the news zigs, the counterintuitive story zags, offering plausible reasons why conventional wisdom is wrong. It can be a useful exercise, and can help break up the monotony of bad news.
And it is true, the financial and economic story has been zigging in one direction, down, for many months now.
But even so, a recent New York Times counterspin story, headlined “Good News: Housing’s Down, Market’s Off, Oil’s Up,” strikes us as glib, callous, and misleading. The piece betrays class and ideological biases, we believe, and adds to a creeping sense that the business press is more than a little insulated from the consequences of Wall Street’s most recent predations.
Looking for benefits in the current financial downturn, the story finds some in rising oil prices, falling home prices, and falling stock prices. That’s fine—but even in an abstract exercise, a pre-Thanksgiving flier, the assertions must have some reasonable basis.
Let’s start, like the Times, with stock prices.
The best place to start is the stock market, because it’s the most counterintuitive. The notion that anybody but a sophisticated Wall Street short-seller should be hoping that stocks fall sounds, frankly, bizarre. But it’s true: a huge chunk of the population — including most people under the age of 50 — has benefited from this year’s market drop.
The author says people at least twenty years from retirement who don’t actively trade stocks but do have 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts do not want a quickly rising stock market. The story cites a 1999 Business Week article by Peter Coy, titled “A Soaring Market Can Sure Bring You Down,” which notes that a quickly rising market hurts long-term returns. Offering evidence that most people are in the market for the long term, the Times says:
Only 21 percent of families owned stocks outright in 2004, the most recent year for which the Federal Reserve has released data. Almost 50 percent of families owned a retirement account, by contrast.
Unless you’re about to retire or sell stock for some other reason, you shouldn’t get too upset about the market’s fall. As long as you are planning on more buying than selling over the next decade or two, a market correction is your friend.
First, anything that says things will be okay “over the next decade or two” has hedged itself into absurdity; the Depression lasted “only” a dozen years.
But, think about it. The number of households with heads nearing retirement age is huge. We looked it up: 36 million households in 2000. That’s about a third of the country (105 million households).
Also, the very Fed data cited by the Times tell us that the older part of the population holds most of the stock market wealth. That’s just commonsense anyway.
So, the Times counts out an enormous portion of the population, and the one with the most to lose. These are atypical investors?
Also, the fact that only twenty-one percent of the population own stock directly is true, but not helpful. The better number is direct and indirect stock ownership. Now, we’re up to forty-nine percent of families. And a surprising amount of low-income people’s (modest) wealth is tied up in the stock market: thirty-one percent for stockholders in the bottom 20th percentile.
Why is this the better number? Because these people could conceivably be in a group that would, as the Times says, “sell stock for some other reason,” even stocks in a retirement account. Given the debt crisis, which has hit those with shaky credit hardest, that “other reason” could very well be staying solvent.
In that vein, the piece’s jaunty tone is just plain bizarre and betrays a misunderstanding about the nature of this particular stock market drop. It is not an act of nature, as the story implies. It is instead an inevitable result of widespread manipulation of the financial system by agents and intermediaries up and down the ladder, from mortgage brokers to Wall Street.