The Wall Street Journal’s Dennis Berman has an excellent piece on the future of the truck driver, whom he notes has been almost uniquely insulated from the decline of the working class.
Now the robots are coming for these jobs too. Gigantic automated trucks produced by Caterpillar are replacing most of the 180 drivers at one iron mine in Australia. It’s a matter of time before a UPSbot shows up at your door.
But watching a half-decade of lagging U.S. employment, it’s hard not to feel a swell of fear for those 5.7 million people, a last bastion of decent blue-collar pay.
A world without truck drivers may eventually be a better one. But for whom?
At least better for trucking-company owners, who today grapple with driver shortages of as much as 15%, in addition to perennial hassles of fuel costs, regulations and crummy margins. “Holy s—,” exclaims Kevin Mullen, the safety director at ADS Logistics Co., a 300-truck firm in Chesterton, Ind. “If I didn’t have to deal with drivers, and I could just program a truck and send it?”
What you can be sure of is that the very real economic gains will be concentrated in the hands of a few. Based on recent history, Berman is entirely correct to be pessimistic about the future prospects of those 6 million drivers.
— Somehow President Obama is mulling whether to nominate Clinton-era deregulator Larry Summers to be chairman of the Federal Reserve. Apparently, the president only taps Robert Rubin acolytes for his top financial and economic jobs.
The WSJ reports that Summers has been buck-raking Wall Street since he left the administration two years ago and consults for Citigroup, Nasdaq, and the hedge fund DE Shaw, which used to pay him millions of dollars a year for part-time work.
What does Summers tell his patrons?
At a closed-door Citigroup-sponsored analyst conference at a Boston hotel in March, Mr. Summers expressed surprise about the persistent backlash in Washington toward big banks, according to one participant. Mr. Summers suggested that uncertainty about bank regulation is holding back lending and economic growth.
He also seems to think that the too big to fail banks aren’t big enough, as Quartz’s Matt Phillips points out.
Just the man for the job!
— Charlie LeDuff writes vividly, as usual, about the collapse of Detroit:
I know of an 11-year-old boy who was shot, the bullet going clean through his arm. The cops stuffed him in the back of a squad car and rushed him to the hospital. That’s how we do it. There was no ambulance available. About two-thirds of the city’s fleet is broken on an average day.
I know a cop who drives around in a squad car with holes in the floorboards. There is no computer, no air-conditioning, the odometer reading 147,000 miles. His bulletproof vest has expired. His pay has been cut 10 percent.
But he’s just wrong that Detroit is “America’s Future”:
So Detroit files for bankruptcy. What does this mean? Pay close attention because it may be coming to you soon, Los Angeles, Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia. In 2011, Moody’s calculated the unfunded liabilities for Illinois’s three largest state-run pension plans to be $133 billion. (It is expected to be even larger this year.) That’s the size of six Detroit bankruptcies — give or take a few hundred million.
Look, when you lose a quarter of your population in 10 years (and more than half in 40) you’re going to have serious issues meeting your obligations. It’s just math. Illinois, say, is not Detroit.

The huge population drop is not just a CAUSE of lost revenue for your beloved Leviathan; it is a RESULT of always-doomed, central economic planning. Stop perpetuating the Keynesian, socialist, fascist frauds and get on the sane, honest, correct side of history.
#1 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Mon 29 Jul 2013 at 08:25 AM
Truckers are "insulated from the decline of the working class?" On what planet, Ryan?
Couple data points (Michigan State paper, 2005): Average hourly wages for employee truck drivers fell from $16.00 to $12.72 over the period 1979 to 1993, a decrease of 20.5%.
After bottoming out in 1993, hourly wages rebounded somewhat and reached $13.70 in 2000, a 7.7% increase. (figures inflation-adjusted to 2000)
Update: BLS makes the median $13.78 in 2012 (also adjusted to 2000's money). So using official figures, today's truck drivers are $2.22 off what their dad earned in 1979.
Dan A.: you must be very rich, know how history is going to turn out. I'd say I envy you but that would make me even more of a commie, so I won't.
#2 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Mon 29 Jul 2013 at 04:13 PM
You and Berman are idiots. You might as well be whining that we have farm tractors: what, you mean that a machine will be plowing the field, taking valuable back-breaking work and pay away from farm laborers? How could we possibly let that happen?! Only the fat cat bankers will profit! We could transport the two of you back in a time a century and you'd have no problem fitting in.
Truck driving is a shit job, which is why they have such big shortages of people even while offering decent pay. If we can get computers to do that shit work of driving all over the country, that's better for those drivers, just like all the back-breaking work we've automated away over the last century. Those drivers will need to be retrained, but they'll find something else to do, just as we've been doing for decades with a constantly growing labor force.
I'm not a fan of Summers, but because he's not free market enough. :)
As Dan says about Detroit, you conveniently elide why everybody left town: precisely the high tax, strong union, big govt policies that you espouse are what drove it into the ground. Illinois will be the next Detroit, if they keep following the same dumb big govt policies you and they espouse.
#3 Posted by Ajay, CJR on Wed 31 Jul 2013 at 04:02 AM
And if everything gets automated what is the world's population going to do? There will be no hard working jobs for half the planet and these people should starve to dead>? Let's automate everything, even cleaning and starve to death. Carpet Cleaning Maida Vale
#4 Posted by chaysons21, CJR on Wed 31 Jul 2013 at 09:33 AM
It's going to be decades before this actually comes to pass. Caterpillar has had autonomous mining trucks since the 1990s and even now they're only beginning to be used in some selected areas. They won't be used in every mine, only in specific ones where the costs of bringing and supporting workers to a remote site are exceptionally high or there are safety issues that bring liability more firmly into play.
There are also autonomous and/or semi-autonomous agricultural machines, but their adoption rate remains slow, primarily because of liability issues. One large operator said he'd only use them in an area where there were no roads for anyone to reach the area. Everyone knows that if there is any malfunction in the electronic or mechanical control systems (which of course is going to happen at some point), even a bad lawyer will turn it into a billion-dollar lawsuit that, due to the technical background of the average person, he'd be likely to win.
It's also why, for all the talk about "cars that drive themselves!" we're not going to see them for some time. The technology is there and capable of operating safely, using normal statistical understanding of what "safely" means. But that logic doesn't exist in many lawsuits....
#5 Posted by Mike, CJR on Wed 31 Jul 2013 at 04:15 PM