(UPDATE: See my follow-up post here: A Zombie Lie Is Born: CNBC’s false welfare-state story spreads far and wide.)
There are so many things wrong with this CNBC “Fast Money” story it’s hard to know where to begin.
But let’s start with the headline:
Welfare State: Handouts Make Up One-Third of U.S. Wages
I guess the first thing to point out is that the story, which is based on a study by some investment firm, is just inaccurate. It says “social welfare benefits make up 35 percent of wages and salaries this year.” The immediate red flag here is that it seems rather artificial to do a ratio of government payouts to wages and salaries, rather than, say, GDP or even personal income. So I took a look at the numbers, and they don’t add up.
Indeed, CNBC says government “handouts” account for more than a third of all wages and salaries in the U.S. But that’s not right. Social Security payments and the like aren’t included in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s wages and salaries numbers (CNBC doesn’t give us much data from the report it cites, much less link to it, but it says it was based on BEA data). Those come from, well, wages and salaries, which totaled $6.4 trillion last year. So if you’re going to try to figure out what percent of the total CNBC’s $2.2 trillion “handouts” numerator would be, you have to add it to the $6.4 trillion denominator to do any calculations. That right away moves our “handouts” to wages and salaries percentage down nine percentage points to 26 percent of $8.6 trillion.
But there’s more wrong here. “Fast Money” executive producer John Melloy (last seen writing this story : “Giant Full Moon Coming—Danger for Stocks?”) and the firm that did the study are only counting wages and salaries in the denominator (the $6.4 trillion number), while they’re counting health care in the form of Medicare and Medicaid, not to mention veteran’s pensions and job training, in the “welfare” numerator. That’s apples to oranges. Those “supplements to wages and salaries” came to $1.6 trillion last year, according to the BEA. Add those in to make this somewhat apples to apples and it brings our denominator to $10.2 trillion and the “handouts” are down to 22 percent.
The study also doesn’t include non-corporate business owners’ income. Nor does it include rent or capital income, like, say, interest from your savings account or capital gains from your 401k (owners of capital get “handouts,” too, CNBC). Those add another few trillion and after subtracting social-insurance contributions (sorry, “welfare” contributions, in CNBC’s parlance), we get to the BEA’s personal income number: $12.5 trillion. So Social Security, Medicare, unemployment, et al, account for just half of CNBC’s headline number—17.6 percent of personal income, rather than an artificial wages and salaries number.
But there’s a major conceptual problem here, too. Going along with the likes of the Washington Post’s Robert J. Samuelson (see my follow-up post on Samuelson here), CNBC accepts as fact the notion that programs like Social Security and unemployment insurance are welfare programs. Your grandpa would knock you upside the head with his cane for saying that.
Thing is, I’m about to write a check to the government for my 2010 taxes. A big chunk of that will go toward paying into the Social Security system. When I retire and/or if I become disabled, I’ll get paid benefits based on the amount of money and the length of time I paid into the system. If I haven’t contributed much, I won’t get much. If I contribute more, I’ll get more. The system does calculate payouts progressively (though it taxes regressively), but does all this sound like a handout to you? It sounds more like a pension to me, or as it’s normally known: social insurance.
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I smelled rotten statistics and bad math as well when I encountered this "news" story and looked into the numbers as well. As viral as this story has been, I have only found two people who have questioned the numbers. You are one of them. Kudos!
#1 Posted by Mari, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 11:28 AM
Another lefty from an ivory tower we hear from trying to confuse people with arithmatic. Earned income on the bottom, transfer payments on the top. It does come out to almost 34%. So the title would be correct; handouts are about 1/3 of wages which does not include transfer payments. I'll say it once more, transfer payments are not included in the denominator becuase they are not earned income.
#2 Posted by matt, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 03:11 PM
When was this story on Fast Money? It is not the kind of story Fast Money would have either the time or temperment to every run.
#3 Posted by ron Fell, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 03:13 PM
On further review, I think you guys can make mistakes too. Looks like this piece by Melloy might have been written by him for the website, not broadcast, on the cable channel, and your headline might be a little misleading in that no one reads the CNBC website, but the 5pm daily broadcast is one fast-paced market scan that is one of the channels most watchable hours.finely tion
#4 Posted by ron Fell, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 03:19 PM
Matt, I explained at length why it makes zero sense to use wages and salaries on the bottom and transfers on the top of the fraction.
Ron, click on the link. It takes you to the CNBC website under the Fast Money heading.
Also nobody reads that website other than the three-and-a-half million unique visitors a month who read that website. http://siteanalytics.compete.com/cnbc.com/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41969508/
#5 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 04:15 PM
I agree with Matt 1,000 percent!
I'm sick and tired of the these Liberal Biased Ivory Tower Effette Eastern Media Elites who think they "own" math, always "trying to confuse people with arithmatic."
If I want to say 2+2=5, that's my right as an American!!!
#6 Posted by mwh, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 04:58 PM
That's right! Who does Ryan think he is with his "analysis" and his demonstrated mastery of "statistical analysis," and putting his words in an order that makes "sense" and "communicates" a point? Jeesh.
#7 Posted by Milwauken, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 09:38 PM
Ugly. Welcome to the party, old man Jack Cafferty:
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/jack-cafferty-calls-social-security-social
#8 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 10 Mar 2011 at 11:41 PM
Jack Cafferty at the CNN's Cafferty File
did an ugly editorial calling SS social welfare.
His viewer response only had one tea Bircher
yelling *sochallism* which was surprising.
#9 Posted by Jerry, CJR on Fri 11 Mar 2011 at 01:24 PM
Jack Cafferty at the CNN's Cafferty File
did an ugly editorial calling SS social welfare.
His viewer response only had one tea Bircher
yelling *sochallism* which was surprising.
#10 Posted by Jerry, CJR on Fri 11 Mar 2011 at 01:27 PM
While someone is talking about handouts, add up the subsidies that go to oil companies and other corporations that end up paying no tax!!
I'll switch my pension income with their subsidies. I'm sure they'd like it at $ 23,000 .annually.
#11 Posted by Patricia , CJR on Fri 11 Mar 2011 at 07:14 PM
Matt--politics aside, I'm pretty sure that when you do a percentage calculation, it's key to have the total in the denominator.
Otherwise, it would be like saying that "50% of the fruit is apples" when you have 3 apples and 6 oranges.
#12 Posted by AH, CJR on Fri 11 Mar 2011 at 07:20 PM
Ryan, you say it makes zero sense to show the ratio or transfer payments to wages, but I don't agree. It's at to know how these items relate. Note that the lion's share of these transfer payments come from taxes and assessments taken from wages.
Even if you were right and it was a senseless statistic, it still wouldn't be false. As Matt already pointed out, these various sources reported that the ratio of transfer payments to wages was over 1/3 or around 35%, and those reports were accurate.
#13 Posted by David in Cal, CJR on Wed 16 Mar 2011 at 11:25 AM