Almost two weeks ago, the Sunday Times, a British newspaper, “broke” the story that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had made significant errors in its 2007 report on the impacts of global warming. (Indian journalist Pallava Bagla actually reported this story for the BBC back in December without creating much of a stir.)
The report stated that there was a very high likelihood that glaciers in the Himalayas would disappear by 2035 if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Three days after the Times published its article, the IPCC essentially admitted that this was an error (while glaciers in the region are melting, they are unlikely to vanish that quickly) and apologized (pdf) for the “poorly substantiated” claim.
Much like the controversial cache of e-mails hacked and leaked from a British climate research center in November, the error has caused a worldwide debate about the quality of the IPCC’s reports and processes. Unlike “Climategate,” however, the so-called “Glaciergate” affair has not received much attention in the American press; nor has subsequent criticism that the panel also overstated the link between global warming and a rise in monetary damages related to natural disasters. As the Knight Science Journalism Tracker pointed out in a news roundup on Wednesday:
US media largely have had little in recent days on the troubles at the UN’s climate-watching IPCC – an agency under siege peripherally due to the largely dismissed flap over emails, right in the cross hairs for its Himalaya glacier melt forecast screw-up, and potentially over suggestions of systematic exaggeration of global warming’s signature in specific storms, droughts, or other natural disasters.
But the fracas continues making headlines in the UK, in Europe generally (see Sascha Karberg’s post here on German press), and especially in India, home of the IPCC boss and host to those melting glaciers.
In the days after the story first broke, The New York Times and The Washington Post each ran one print article about the Himalayan glaciers error. The Christian Science Monitor, now published online, produced one piece, and the Associated Press and Bloomberg sent a couple of articles over the wire.
Unfortunately, that’s about it. Meanwhile, outlets in the U.K., India, and Australia have been eating the American media’s lunch, churning out reams of commentary and analysis. Journalists in the U.S. should take immediate steps to redress that oversight.
Overseas, reporters have already explained many details of IPCC’s gaffe. The glaciers error can be traced back to a 1999 article in New Scientist. The piece quoted Syed Hasnain, an Indian glaciologist who is currently a fellow at the TERI research institute in Delhi (run by IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri), saying that glaciers in the central and eastern Himalayas could disappear by 2035. (That prediction does not exist in any peer-reviewed literature, and Hasnain told The New York Times last week that he was misquoted, but a 1996 study from Russia reported that the glaciers could come close to disappearing by 2350.) In 2005, a status report (pdf) on glaciers by WWF, an environmental group, cited the New Scientist’s article from six years earlier, and it was that report that the IPCC used as the basis for its flawed estimate of glacial retreat.
There is no doubt that glaciers around the world are losing mass at an alarming rate (the Center for Environmental Journalism’s Tom Yulsman had a good blog post on this Wednesday, as did Scientific American on Thursday). To make matters worse for the IPCC, however, the 2035 blunder is actually one of five in a single paragraph (originally highlighted, it appears, by Graham Cogley, a professor of geography and glaciers at Trent University in Canada), which the Associated Press laid out nicely in one of its articles.
Reactions from journalists and scientists have ranged from charges that the error proves the IPCC has intentionally misled the public and can no longer be trusted to claims that it was an isolated and innocent mistake that does not detract from IPCC’s capability and legitimacy. As usual, the best commentary and analyses have presented arguments that fall somewhere between these two extremes, and it is into that breach that American media must go.
In places, that process has already begun. New York Times blogger Andrew Revkin had an insightful post on Tuesday about pressures that the IPCC is facing “from inside and out” to enact certain changes. Lead authors of IPCC reports, a longtime critic of the panel based in academia, and the vice chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission alike have called for improvements in transparency and objectivity in the panel’s next major assessment report, which is expected sometime around 2013.
In a post defending the credibility of the IPCC, RealClimate.org, a blog run by a group of climate modelers (some of who have worked with the panel), offered a suggestion for how the group could improve one aspect of its review process:
In this case, it appears that not enough people with relevant experience saw this text, or if they saw it, did not comment publicly. This might be related to the fact that this text was in the Working Group 2 report on impacts, which does not get the same amount of attention from the physical science community than does the higher profile [Working Group 1] report (which is what people associated with RC generally look at). In WG1, the statements about continued glacier retreat are much more general and the rules on citation of non-peer reviewed literature was much more closely adhered to. However, in general, the science of climate impacts is less clear than the physical basis for climate change, and the literature is thinner, so there is necessarily more ambiguity in WG 2 statements.
… the measure of an organisation is not determined by the mere existence of errors, but in how it deals with them when they crop up. The current discussion about Himalayan glaciers is therefore a good opportunity for the IPCC to further improve their procedures and think more about what the IPCC should be doing in the times between the main reports.
It is also a good opportunity for journalists to try to better explain how the IPCC works (for better or worse) to the public—and RealClimate’s point about the differences between “WG1” and “WG2” is key. The Observatory has repeatedly argued that one of the best ways to improve climate reporting is for journalists to better delineate between points of science where there is a high level of consensus (e.g., that the world is getting warmer and human industry is largely responsible for that) and points where there is still a lot of uncertainty (such as the scale and timing of impacts). If the Himalayan-glacier peg has grown too stale for editors, reporters have another IPCC-related storyline with which to carry out this delineation.
Last Sunday, the Sunday Times was at it again with a story questioning the IPCC’s use of a report supposedly linking global warming to a rise, in recent decades, of monetary damages from natural disasters:
The Sunday Times has since found that the scientific paper on which the IPCC based its claim had not been peer reviewed, nor published, at the time the climate body issued its report.
When the paper was eventually published, in 2008, it had a new caveat. It said: “We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and catastrophe losses.”
The IPCC issued a rebuttal (pdf) of the Sunday Times’s work the next day, calling it a “meaningless and baseless” attack:
This section of the IPCC report is a balanced treatment of a complicated and important issue. It clearly makes the point that one study detected an increase in economic losses, corrected for values at risk, but that other studies have not detected such a trend. The tone is balanced, and the section contains many important qualifiers. In writing, reviewing, and editing this section, IPCC procedures were carefully followed to produce the IPCC mandate.
Bob Ward, the policy and communications director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics, then penned a column for the Guardian, another British paper, arguing, “‘Disastergate’ is an excuse for IPCC critics to dig up old academic rows.” Ward pointed out that Roger Pielke, Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado, has long criticized the panel for misrepresenting Pielke’s and others’ research on the relationship between global warming and the rising cost of natural disasters.
So, yes, an “old row” it is, but a very important one, to which the American press should pay more attention (taking a cue perhaps from the Guardian, which thought the flap between the Sunday Times, the IPCC, Ward, and Pielke was newsworthy enough). For, indeed, the row continues. Over the last week, Pielke has posted a number of entries on his blog revisiting his criticisms of the IPCC’s work on disaster losses and responding to Ward’s defense of the panel (see here, here, here, here, and here). Today, he announced that next Friday he will debate Ward at the Royal Institution of Great Britain. The event is titled, “Has Global Warming increased the toll of disasters?”
That’s a great question. Unfortunately, the debate is in London, which probably means we’ll be hearing crickets in the U.S. media while coverage of this momentous topic continues elsewhere.
[Update – 2/2, 11:00 a.m.: As Rich Stone of Science pointed out in the comments section, the germ of the “Glaciergate” story cropped up in an article by Pallava Bagla in Science publication in November. It focused on the Raina report, a study that challenged the IPCC’s statements about rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers. Last week’s issue of Science contained an interesting Q&A between Bagla and Rajendra Pachauri, the panel’s chairman, in which Pachauri responded to recent criticisms and discussed the outlook for an international climate accord.]

I am one of those neanderthals who looks for motives in almost every conflict, misstatement or misque.
What's in it for anybody to not cover this?
#1 Posted by Tom Gallagher, CJR on Fri 29 Jan 2010 at 05:08 PM
The LAST thing the "professional journalists" of the world want to do is to rock Al Gore's AGW crack dream.
The IPCC is a thoroghly corrupt organization. The "Glaciergate" scandal has been superceded by even worse examples of fraud - the most recent being the fact that the IPCC reports incorporate as "fact" excerpts from Greenpeace's unverified "Pacific in Peril" nonsense.
The buildup and collapse of the AGW stupdity will be regarded as one of the greatest failures of the press in its history.
#2 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 29 Jan 2010 at 06:08 PM
Insightful piece! As a footnote, I'd like to add that I found online that among U.S. wire services, United Press International is also covering the IPCC affair. (UPI is small compared with what it used to be, but it's still there.)
#3 Posted by Gerry, CJR on Fri 29 Jan 2010 at 07:28 PM
Curtis, thank you for pointing out this glaring omission. Of course, conservative blogs have been all over this for weeks. The WWF "correction" is, by the way, nowhere to be found on their web site.
The IPCC is an unaccountable bureaucracy that cannot be voted out pf office. They need much more press scrutiny than they've been getting.
#4 Posted by JLD, CJR on Fri 29 Jan 2010 at 09:28 PM
Interesting. In fact it coincides with a simarly neglected news release from the Vatican advising that one has to spend slightly more time in Pugatory than previously thought before going to Hell.
Despite sloppy stats from the IPCC, the main point to take home from the article is the sentence: "There is no doubt that glaciers around the world are losing mass at an alarming rate."
#5 Posted by Art Kane, CJR on Sat 30 Jan 2010 at 11:03 AM
When was the last time a climate change denier admitted error? Just asking.
#6 Posted by john, CJR on Sat 30 Jan 2010 at 01:43 PM
When was the last time a climate change denier demanded trillions of dollars worth of policy changes from industrialized nations? Just asking.
#7 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 30 Jan 2010 at 02:41 PM
Curtis,
you should have credited Science Magazine, a U.S. publication, for having broken this story, which was then picked up by the U.K. press. Pallava Bagla's article for BBC recapped a piece he wrote for Science last November (Pallava is our New Delhi correspondent).
Graham Cogley's revelation about the 2035 error also appears as a letter to the editor in our current issue.
#8 Posted by Rich Stone, CJR on Sat 30 Jan 2010 at 08:45 PM
At some point the journalists covering this story and the IPCC's response will see fit to cover the economic interests of IPCC Chairman Rajendra K Pachauri. Most Americans are under the illusion that the IPCC is led by disinterested scientists, and in the case of Pachauri this may not be true.
Al Gore's investments in "green" companies are well-known but no one thinks of him as a disinterested "scientist." Pachauri is a different case, and his investments and relationships may undermine his credibility.
#9 Posted by Andrew A, CJR on Sun 31 Jan 2010 at 08:45 AM
Why does the IPCC exist? Who pays for it to exist? Is there a group called "Friends of IPCC?"
#10 Posted by dougmatt, CJR on Sun 31 Jan 2010 at 02:52 PM
This spoof of climate science may be of interest:
http://climaterealists.com/?id=4960
#11 Posted by Mr. Xyz, CJR on Sun 31 Jan 2010 at 09:36 PM
Rich,
An earlier draft of my piece linked to Bagla’s article for Science article as well as his piece for the BBC piece in the first paragraph. I cut it because the same person authored both pieces and the BBC article is actually a much closer approximation of the Sunday Times article to which I was making the comparison and which ostensibly “broke” the “Glaciergate” affair. The piece in Science, on the other hand, was really about the Raina report. While it contrasted that report’s findings with those of the IPCC, and questioned the IPCC’s 2035 melt prediction and reliance on unpublished data, it did so briefly and did not present the damning back-story that appeared later. So, yes, the article in Science contained the germ of the story, but its angle and tone (to my mind, it came off as inconclusive on the discrepancies between the Raina report and IPCC reports) were different enough from the BBC piece, I think it is unfair to say that it “broke” in the former.
Nonetheless, I should have found someway to mention the article in Science somewhere besides in my lede. While the genesis of the story was not really the point of my column, the work you published was an excellent and valuable piece of reporting and the Raini report is certainly a relevant resource that journalists and readers should be aware of. Thanks for making me reconsider the omission. I'll post an update with a link to Bagla's piece from November, as well as one to his Q&A with Pachauri in last week's issue of Science.
Sincerely,
Curtis
#12 Posted by Curtis Brainard, CJR on Mon 1 Feb 2010 at 01:14 PM
The glacier story is old news already.
The UK and Indian press are now reporting of use of non-peer reviewed environmental activist groups for such claims as forecasts of Amazon deforestation (incorrectly citing a study on logging as it if were climate), forecast declines in African agriculture, falsely linking climate change to recent disasters (cited a study that found the opposite). The UK Information Commissioner concluded that climate scientists at CRU violated the UK Freedom of Information Act law - a law that journalists know well. They also report on the substantial conflicts of interest held by Pachauri in terms of his affiliation with at least 20 businesses that would potentially profit from climate change treaty proposals, and that he knew in advance that the glacier claim was false but lied about it.
I suggest reading the Telegraph, the Times Online, the Daily Mail, the Times of India and the Hindustan Times to come up to date. Even the Guardian. The Scotsman Sun calls the IPCC a "con".
Why has the U.S. news media engaged in a total news blackout on this story? That is another story the media should be examining.
#13 Posted by Ed, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 12:11 PM
"In 2005, a status report (pdf) on glaciers by WWF, an environmental group, cited the New Scientist’s article from six years earlier, and it was that report that the IPCC used as the basis for its flawed estimate of glacial retreat."
"...the 2035 blunder is actually one of five in a single paragraph (originally highlighted, it appears, by Graham Cogley, a professor of geography and glaciers at Trent University in Canada)..."
While Cogley might have pointed it out when it appeared in the IPCC report, the 2035 claim was rubbished in the peer-reviewed literature in 2005, and before that in a book by Jack Ives, an expert on the Himalayas, in 2004.
So it is worse than you think. It was not simply that the claim was based on non-peer-reviewed literature; it was based on a claim REFUTED in the peer-reviewed literature years beforehand. That's worse than sloppy. The authors of that chapter have since admitted that they knew at the time that the 2035 date was a lie, but they used it for political purposes. That's nice confirmation.
Check it out on my posting here:
http://buythetruth.wordpress.com/2010/01/26/un-ipcc-rotting-from-the-head-down/
If the US media don't start doing some comprehensive and fair coverage of the scams that are being uncovered in the AGW agenda, then I'm afraid they become part of the problem, and become complicit in the cover up that has been going on for years.
#14 Posted by ScientistForTruth, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 12:24 PM
My concern re journalism is that the big news organizations in the U.S. are so editorially committed to the theory of global warming (i.e., it's happening, humans in SUVs and McMansions are causing it, and politicians getting control of mass consumption and production can save the Earth) that they cannot re-think the bases of their original support for the notion. It would be humiliating to a mainstream media that is already losing influence.
It's possible that if the global warming lobby had been subject to the scrutiny it has only recently received, including independent verification of its data and modeling, the reaction would not have been so hysterical. Having displayed some of this hysteria - expressing in Ivy League tones, of course, but still by objective measures, a species of hysteria (exaggeration, failure to address tough questions) - the dominant corporate media cannot now flinch.
#15 Posted by Mark Richard, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 12:40 PM
Curtis,
Do you find it interesting (or not) that so many people enthusiastically come out in support of the complaint that the U.S. media did not cover this well?
Will you be writing an article examining The New York Times's lack of illuminating coverage of ExxonMobil, for example, over recent years?
Please let me know what you think about The Times's coverage of ExxonMobil.
(FYI, today The Times ran another ExxonMobil advertorial on its front page, and Jad Mouawad wrote a lengthy article in the business section, about ExxonMobil's growth and strategy, that sounds like it could have been mainly written directly by ExxonMobil's PR department. Check it out.)
I'm waiting for some illuminating examination of the ExxonMobil matter in the mainstream press. Can you indicate when that might come? Is it a problem, in your view, that the media have not delivered that to the public?
Be Well,
Jeff
#16 Posted by Jeff Huggins, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 01:27 PM
(e.g., that the world is getting warmer and human industry is largely responsible for that)
That is exactly what is in question. Take away the IPCC and there is no consensus.
The problem wit the press is accepting that premise without a trace of conclusive evidence. That is why the US press hasn't covered the story. You are part of the fraud.
#17 Posted by dave, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 03:41 PM
I think the Journalistic lockstep in the USA is worse than described here.
For example, in the run-up to Copenhagen, the PBS NewsHour was flagrantly hyping propaganda rather than facts. Margaret Warner, in her interview with de Boer, stated that “this huge team of scientists from all over the globe issued these unanimous warnings about the really extreme danger to the planet”[Sept. 18].
'Unanimous warnings'? 'Extreme danger'? Well, that was certainly extreme and certainly not balanced reporting.
And in the interview she used terms like,’emissions,’ ‘polluting nations,’ ‘pollution,’ ‘climate change…’
No one would have a clue that the whole interview was really about the issue of carbon dioxide and global warming
I would not characterize such journalists as MIA. Agents of Minitrue enforcing the language of Newspeak is much more apt.
#18 Posted by Michael Snow, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 04:37 PM
The US media isn't covering this because CBS,NBC,ABC and most major papers are liberal owned. The US is no longer the country of the free and the brave. Our so called journalist have forgotten there role as defenders of the democracy and the watchers of our government. There is no anti current administration comments from any of the major players and remember the current president still believes in global warming. Maybe it would be a good thing if Europe investigated why the US news services are not doing there jobs. It might help us in a huge way.
#19 Posted by John Perram, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 06:04 PM
It is quite simple really if you think about it. The MSM is not interested in the story now, because the did NO INVESTIGATIVE journalism in the past on AWG. To report now that it is a farce would simply prove that they were in on the scam to begin with. The MSM here are simply the talking heads of the liberals, and the AWG crowd, they are not capable of newscasting, it would interfere with their propaganda.
#20 Posted by Mark, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 05:34 PM
I also question whether Columbia, here, wants a "strong press." It seems more in tune with an "advocacy press."
For those of us who are concerned about this scandal, writing the PBS Ombudsman might have more effect IF enough people speak up.
http://www.pbs.org/ombudsman/feedback.html
#21 Posted by Michael Snow, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 01:58 PM
Imagine my honest (if naive) surprise to learn only yesterday that the guy who runs CJR (Victor Navasky) also runs luxury Bermuda cruises (for the betterment of the oppressed underclass, I'm sure) to turn up the pockets of the silly but monied moonbats who prop up the money-losing liberal mouthpiece he publishes (namely "The Nation").
How any self-respecting wannabe "professiona journalist" can offer his or her name to this outfit is beyond me. It must take a lot of drugs or a lot of therapy. Or both.
#22 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 07:19 PM
Leake's story in the Sunday Times is grossly misleading about waht the IPCC report says.
#23 Posted by Tim Lambert, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 10:18 AM
One of the more common sense and easily understood studies about climate change was recently published by UCAR, which manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research. It shows that across the US, the number of record high temperatures being set far outpaces the number of record low temperatures. The trend is quite clear and has accelerated in the last decade compared to prior decades, when the numbers were approximately equal (one would expect equal numbers in a non warming world). Though this paints quite a compelling case for global warming being real (at least US warming), I have not seen it covered much at all in the mainstream US press. By this fact, should I assume that the US press is flagrantly conservative by its lack of coverage? For those of you who would like to see the study, the summary is at http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/maxmin.jsp# I would welcome a response from Curtis or one of the many climate change skeptics about the conclusions of this specific study. I am not in any way defending the sloppy science used by the IPCC, but at the same time it seems like there is consistently a rush to judgment by climate change skeptics to condemn the entire body of scientific research on global warming, as well as anyone publicly associated with it, when mistakes or inaccuracies of any type are found in publications.
#24 Posted by Chris, CJR on Tue 9 Feb 2010 at 12:50 PM
The UCAR study is hardly "compelling"... Indeed, it is more of the same, tired "Chicken Little" schtick that grant-dependent scientist have been dumping on us for years.
First of all, assuming the data is accurate (a hell of an assumption given the corruption so recently exposed) only in one decade out of the last six did record high temperatures significantly outnumber record lows. In two of the decades, record lows outnumbered record highs.
Secondly, one cannot possibly infer a "global warming" trend from 10 years worth of data from a single country that makes up less than 2 percent of the Earth's surface.
Most importantly, the silly conclusions aren't supported by the data, as the report has to acknowledge, despite the eco-hype:
"The authors caution that such predictions are, by their nature, inexact. Climate models are not designed to capture record daily highs and lows with precision, and it remains impossible to know future human actions that will determine the level of future greenhouse gas emissions. The model used for the study, the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model, correctly captured the trend toward warmer average temperatures and the greater warming in the West, but overstated the ratio of record highs to record lows in recent years."
So an unbiased headline should read:
"BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD - GLOBAL WARMING MODELS OVERSTATES U.S. TEMPERATURE RECORD"
#25 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 9 Feb 2010 at 01:39 PM
Ah but they don't. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
#26 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 12:38 AM
Padikiller,
For someone who decries ad hominem attacks, it's a surprise to see you deploy precisely those same techniques in your posting - using phrases like "same, tired Chicken Little schtick" and "grant dependent scientists". Or do you not practice what you preach? And to your point on corruption - to impugn all climate related science due to the sloppy procedures of the IPCC or the East Anglia email issue would be the equivalent of saying all CEOs lie if one does, or that all baseball players take steroids if a few do. It is not a defensible position to take - at least if one is open to an actual debate and sharing of information.
I'll first address your ad hominem attacks. From what I can see the lead author of this is a Senior Scientist who has worked for 30+ years at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, not a grant dependent scientist. The conclusions are not Chicken Little in nature - no mention of catastrophic outcomes, just straightforward conclusions that the number of days with record highs is going to continue to increase.
Now, to the data. You're correct that in 2 decades increased lows outnumbered increased highs. But the trend - at least for the last 50 years - is that the ratio of highs/lows has increased in every decade since the 60s, and has become far more skewed in the last 10 years. You say one cannot infer from 10 years - I am looking at the ratio trend over the last 50 years, not 10.
To your point about drawing conclusions about the world from 2% of the Earth's surface. First, only 29% of the surface is covered by land, so that is the only area upon which measurements can be practically taken, at least economically. Here is a link to the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia and a report they prepared on temperature change going back to 1910, more than 100 years ago - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/docs/FactSheet3.pdf. Note the same kind of rise in temperature as seen in the US, especially over the last 30 years. I've seen similar reports on Chinese temperature changes - so that's 3 of the top global countries by land mass all showing very similar results.
As to the point about climate models being less accurate at predicting high temperatures - that's a fair point, though it also is an indicator of the scientist's honesty about their conclusions. And there is no ambivalence about the trend to warmer temperatures. So perhaps the ratio of highs/lows by mid century will only be 10/1 rather than the model's projection of 20/1. Either way, it means substantial changes for our climate.
If you are implying that we should do nothing until we have 100%, absolute certainty, then you are essentially saying do nothing forever, because for scientific research the level of certainty on any conclusion is rarely 100%. By your logic, if you lived in a flood plain you would not buy flood insurance because there would not be 100% certainty of flooding, same for fire insurance, etc.
I find it incredibly myopic that you continually refer to all believers in human induced climate change as being liberals. I'm an American living in Asia, where two countries that are not normally called liberal - Singapore and China - are investing huge sums in clean tech. Singapore is talking to the Dutch about the feasibility of building a network of seawalls and dikes around the entire country to deal with rising sea levels. China is investing billions in building wind farms and utility scale solar projects. If you consider these to be liberal countries, you really need to get a passport and travel.
I welcome alternative viewpoints that are backed by good science - feel free to send links of peer reviewed research papers or studies that you have found.
#27 Posted by Chris, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 07:32 AM
@Chris: As a fellow Asian expat I agree that China is doing significant things with sustainable energy. But even though it's more than the US is doing it's far from enough, as I can see from looking out the window in Beijing everyday.
However, there's a huge difference in investing in alternate energy for your own account, as China is doing, versus sending the IPCC a massive check, which the US is being asked to do. China has been a huge beneficiary of the international carbon trade, and has been accused of gaming the system by deliberately starting highly polluting projects in order to access carbon credits in return for simple countermeasures. Tellingly, China and India are balking now that they too are being asked to write checks to the IPCC.
I don't think anyone is against alternative energy and pollution abatement. The problem starts when AGW alarmists and the IPCC propose massive global income redistribution schemes that have nothing to do with minimizing pollution.
As for Singapore building dikes? Well, they also bought into Merrill Lynch and Citibank in 2007...
#28 Posted by JLD, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 09:13 AM
Chris wrote: "If you are implying that we should do nothing until we have 100%, absolute certainty, then you are essentially saying do nothing forever, because for scientific research the level of certainty on any conclusion is rarely 100%"
padikiller responds: Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the globe is in fact warming due to man-made carbon dioxide... What should we do?
The most sensible thing to do would be dump more CO2 in the air. After all, the earth's population will double in a century- that's 12 billion mouths that will need feeding, and even the IPCC's reports concede that global warming will increase crop yields for cereals.
And the IPCC report doesn't even account for the fact that CO2 is plant food, and that doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration will spur crop growth all over the world, regardless of temperature changes.
And it goes without saying more heat and more water brings more evaporation and more rainfall.
Heat, rain and plant growth are all great things. In general, when it comes to biology, warm is good, cold is bad. So many of the "gloom and doom" disastrous predictions of the IPCC report (melting glaciers, North African famines, rising sea levels) have been proven to be fraudulent, while the ameliorative effects of global warming have gone ignored.
The first question that needs to be asked of the Warmingists (again, assuming that humans are warming the globe) is "what is the temperature we need to maintain?" Is it warmer than the current average? Lower? The same? What scientific basis is there for picking any particular point on the global thermostat?
#29 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 09:21 AM
"versus sending the IPCC a massive check"
LOL. No one sends them a check! What idiocy fear mongering and while we're at it when do you complain about sending one to Exxon?
"In general, when it comes to biology, warm is good, cold is bad."
I'm a biologist and a journalist, so not really. Too warm and viruses and insect infestations flourish. Have a little hemorrhagic fever scarecrow?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_hemorrhagic_fever
Nothing is fraudulent but the shear weight of your wrong assertions on just about everything based on what you've written here.
The optimum temperature is one that preserves the ice caps and keeps negative species in check while not driving the mammals and fisheries to extinction as they are being now.
#30 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 12:11 PM
Gee, wrong again. What a surprise.
Population doubling unlikely in 21st century
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v387/n6635/full/387803a0.html
#31 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 12:21 PM
There's very little need for the US media to cover this story. It's being nicely handled by the basement bloggers who are more than adequately funded by fossil fuel interests, led by ExxonMobil.
It never would have occurred to me that a once renowned and respected publication such as the CJR would ever stoop to questioning why more American"repeaters" aren't jumping on the denier bandwagon, but I suppose that even this magazine has discover the Fox Philosophy that baseless hearsay sells at a higher rate than thoroughly investigated facts.
Wallow in the muck with the profiteers if you must, but the world - and the world's climate - continues to change around you.
I'd burn my Society of Professional Journalists membership, but I'll save the carbon output and recycle it with my daily newspaper.
#32 Posted by BYoung, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 01:18 PM
Wow!
How exactly can I become an ExxonMobil-funded "profiteer"? Do I have to blog from a basement, or can I do it from my blackberry on my private jet to Copenhagen?
How about a compromise? I'll blog from a laptop on Al Gore's houseboat, or on the balcony of his bayside San Francisco condo (until it's inundated by meltwater, that is) and I'll rake if the profits from Monsanto instead of Exxon. That way I'll get both - oil money AND green money.
Happy now?
#33 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 01:35 PM
Gee, wrong again. What a surprise.
Population doubling unlikely in 21st century
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v387/n6635/full/387803a0.html
#34 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 02:21 PM
Am I happy now, padkiller? If your widow is posting this, yes.
#35 Posted by BYoung, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 02:54 PM
A death wish from a True Believer?
GASP!
Where is the Greenpeace love?... The erstwhile Liberal Tolerance?...
#36 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 04:17 PM
@JLD,
I agree that China's actions are more self serving, not only pollution related but also due to concerns about crop yields and increased desertification. From what I've read their government believe in the existence of human caused climate change, the main issue for them, as you noted, is not whether it is happening, but who pays for it.
In discussing AGW, I think it's important to separate the discussion into 3 areas - 1) is it happening 2) do we want to do something about it 3) if the answer to 2 is yes, how do we pay for it.
@padikiller,
I agree there are some positive effects from AGW, longer crop seasons and the ability to grow crops in northerly locations such as northern Canada and Siberia (that is, if the Gulf Stream ocean current doesn't collapse). But even if we only focus on food production, ignoring the issues of relocation due to droughts or rising sea levels and affect on species, there are still a large number of negatives. Some countries will benefit, while others suffer - is Russia going to allow people to emigrate from Africa (drought) or low lying countries such as Bangladesh that are already seeing increased problems due to excessive rainfall and incursion from the sea? Will they ship millions of tons of wheat at no charge to replace what is lost in local production? The models show increased instances of drought and flooding, not a uniform increase in rainfall. So either large scale emigration or sustained food aid (lasting many decades) will become the norm.
#37 Posted by Chris, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 01:17 AM
Dr. York dodges: The optimum [average global] temperature is one that preserves the ice caps and keeps negative species in check while not driving the mammals and fisheries to extinction as they are being now.
padikiller responds: Assuming your contention has merit, we need a number here, Dr. York. What is the actual ideal average global temperature we should maintain?
Huh?
If the idea is to limit anthropogenic CO2 to set the global thermostat, we need to know where to put the pointer. When do we stop the Sequestration Machines?
#38 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 10:12 AM
Chris wrote: "But even if we only focus on food production, ignoring the issues of relocation due to droughts or rising sea levels and affect on species, there are still a large number of negatives. Some countries will benefit, while others suffer"
padikiller: Most changes work this way. Certainly developed nations will suffer the cost of trillions of dollars for the technology necessary to appease AGWists.
However, as far as biology is concerned, warm is generally good and cold is generally bad. Cooling the planet [assuming solely for the sake of argument that we have the power to do such a thing] to save the polar bears will stress tropical species. Reducing atmospheric CO2 will stunt plant growth worldwide, not just in Siberia.
If you look at the IPCC's "findings" that are falling apart under scrutiny, you will see that they are "gloomiest and doomiest" predictions - fabricated famines in Africa, non-melting Himalayan glaciers, full-flowing Amazonian waters... etc...
The AGW alarmists would have us believe that such "errors" do not disturb their "theory", but this belief is untenable. Such glaring fraud - incorporating press releases from activist organizations - cannot simply be sidestepped.
It's time to go back to square one and let a larger group of fresh eyes look at the data (what data that has not been mishandled, corrupted, lost or destroyed, that is).
#39 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 10:27 AM
Word games won't help you. That number is 350 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere and 1 degree lower than the 1.5 F increase in the global mean over the last 100 years.
You know nothing about climate or biology or any other subject as near as I can tell from these wild ass wrong assertions loaded with personal right wing opinion that you troll every thread to plant.
More inconvenient truth from experts.
First, the main findings of IPCC over the years, have they been seriously cast in doubt? No….
On balance if you look at all the things the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the body of experts convened by the United Nations to advise governments in responding to global warming] has been doing over the last number of years, they were trying very hard to put in all the peer-reviewed serious stuff. I’ve actually always felt that they were taking a somewhat conservative stand on many issues and for justifiable reasons….
They should be able to say that this is serious science and take a somewhat conservative view. If you look at the climate sceptics, I would have to say honestly, what standard are they being held to? It’s very asymmetric. They get to say anything they want. In the end, the core of science is deeply self checking.
That’s Energy Secretary Steven Chu in his new interview with the Financial Times (regis. req’d).
#40 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 04:54 PM
"I'll blog from a laptop on Al Gore's houseboat,"
You aren't blogging from anywhere. You are an anonymous comment thread troll with delusions of grandeur and superiority despite a sad lack of viable knowledge. Blogging would require the ability to produce an actual post on your own platform.
#41 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 05:04 PM
Dr. York proclaimed: That number [the ideal atmospheric CO2 concentration] is 350 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere and 1 degree lower than the 1.5 F increase in the global mean over the last 100 years.
padikiller asks: So it is your contention, Dr. York, that holding atmospheric CO2 steady at 350 ppm will reduce the current global average temperature by 1 degree?
How, pray tell, do you arrive at this conclusion that seems (to non-U.S. Government scientiest-types) to have been plucked from your nether regions? Which computer "model" portends such an outcome?
And while we're at it.... The current average global temperature is about 57 degrees F. What makes 56 degrees the "ideal" temperature? Who says that 59 degrees wouldn't be better?
And why 350 ppm? Why not 330? Or 300?
HUH?
You can just pull numbers out of your wazoo and expect anybody to accept them, "Doc".
#42 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 05:23 PM
350 ppm is widely recognized as the safest level of CO2. We are at 390 on the Keeling Curve and climbing now with a 1.5 F rise since 1900 when the CO2 was at 280 ppm. It's a compromise. 450 ppm will allow for a 2C plus temperature rise and with it, a major destabilizing forcing of the climate beyond which, there is no return. You don't want to run that experiment.
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
#43 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 11:15 PM
"The current average global temperature is about 57"
Irrelevant single data point. Climate is long term. Weather is short term, varies, and like politics, is local. This is a common misconception among sceptics. It shows you don't get even the basics of the question and the gist of the problem. Education is the answer. Your kids' lives depend on it.
#44 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 11:26 PM
Citation: http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126
#45 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Fri 19 Feb 2010 at 12:17 AM
Dr. York wrote: "350 ppm [concentration of atmospheric CO2] is widely recognized as the safest level of CO2"
padikiller responds: "Widely recognized" by whom?
I'm not looking for a link to an agenda-driven activist organization.
How about giving us a citation to a peer-reviewed paper in a reputable scientific journal that demonstrates a likelihood that maintaining a 350 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration will reduce the average global temperature by 1 degree Fahrenheit?
Can you do that for us, Professor York? With that B.A. in journalism, you should at least be able to cite properly.
#46 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 19 Feb 2010 at 07:44 AM
See the citation.
#47 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Fri 19 Feb 2010 at 11:32 AM
@padikiller,
In my posting of a couple of days ago, I asked you to provide links to peer reviewed articles that have contrary or significantly different conclusions on whether AGW is real. I am still waiting for those. Can you answer yes or no as to whether you plan to provide those? And just as you have requested that any study supporting AGW conclusions not be linked to any activist organization, I ask the same of you for your response - no links of any kind to the oil and gas industry or others whose primary agenda is to discredit AGW.
With regards to numbers and CO2 levels, I'm puzzled as to your focus on whether it is 350 or 330 or 300, etc. In any area where limits are being set - allowable arsenic levels in water, lead in paint, extensive analysis is done and then a number is agreed upon by scientific consensus, using experts in a particular field. Why do you object so much to that same technique being used here that is used in 100s of other areas? The current level is 388 and climbing. The number needs to come down, and rather than arguing about whether the number should be 350 or 330 is somewhat irrelevant. We need to start taking actions now that will slow the rate of increase in CO2. Once again, rather than only trying to poke holes in the arguments of others, please present peer reviewed scientific publications that substantiates your position.
In your response to my earlier post, you said warm is generally good and cold is generally bad. It is just not possible to look at global warming that simplistically. Have you heard of the pine mountain beetle? It's native to our forests in NA. Due to warmer winters, they are thriving (ie not getting killed off by cold snaps) and killing off millions of acres of pine trees, primarily in the Western US. Besides the damage to the trees in an economic sense (logging, recreational use), the dying trees release huge amounts of sequestered carbon into the atmosphere. The government of Canada estimates that 270 M tons of CO2 will be emitted by 2020 by dying forests in BC and Alberta. Do you factor things like this into your postion that warmer is better?
#48 Posted by Chris, CJR on Sat 20 Feb 2010 at 04:23 AM
Chris wrote: In my posting of a couple of days ago, I asked you to provide links to peer reviewed articles that have contrary or significantly different conclusions on whether AGW is real. I am still waiting for those.
padikiller responds: I'm not your research lackey, Chris. There are tons of such articles- why don't you look them up yourself?
This one is a freebie:
http://petesplace-peter.blogspot.com/2008/04/peer-reviewed-articles-skeptical-of-man.html
Christ wrote: The current level is 388 and climbing. The number needs to come down, and rather than arguing about whether the number should be 350 or 330 is somewhat irrelevant.
padikiller responds: Says who? If you lower CO2, you stunt plant growth and lower crop production. If the goal of the AGWists is to lower CO2, there needs to be a number - a setting on the Gore machine.
What makes 350 ppm the right number? What's the scientific basis for this claim? Why not 400? Or 300?
The answer of course, is that AGWists can't provide an "ideal" CO2 concentration. There is no scientific basis for correlating any specific CO2 concentration to any specific average global temperature. Its all just an anticapitalist fairy tale.
#49 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 20 Feb 2010 at 08:50 AM
Mr. padikiller,
Not surprisingly, you link to a website (Pete's Place) that is nothing more than an aggregator of misinformation from right-wing think tanks, and, in turn, links to dozens of thoroughly discredited and unreliable blogs by non-climate scientists such as Anthony Watts (Watts Up With That?) and Steven McIntyre (ClimateAudit). Given the shoddy quality of your sources, why should you deserve any more attention in this forum?
Tell us, truthfully (no, go ahead and lie), how many of these articles have you read? The list looks like a rehash of those produced by Marc Morano, formerly the head PR flack of Senator Inhofe's minority EPW committee and "Swift Boat Veterans for Disinformation and Propaganda." The list of authors (Soon, Balliunas, Singer) reads like a Who's Who of debunked and discredited authors, who have about as much credibility on the subject of climate science as Ahmed Chalabi (are you going to cite him next?). Good luck convincing anyone with that list.
#50 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 12:09 AM
Line-by-line with Taylor: Not surprisingly, you link to a website (Pete's Place) that is nothing more than an aggregator of misinformation from right-wing think tanks, and, in turn, links to dozens of thoroughly discredited and unreliable blogs by non-climate scientists such as Anthony Watts (Watts Up With That?) and Steven McIntyre (ClimateAudit).
padikiller responds: The link I provided includes dozens of direct citations to peer-reviewed publications by climate skeptics. Your claim that it is an "aggregator of misinformation" is just silly - there are direct hyperlinks to the publications right there in the citations.
Taylor goes on: Given the shoddy quality of your sources, why should you deserve any more attention in this forum?
padikiller: The "sources" include respected journals like "Science", "Geophysical Research Letters" and "Journal of Climate" - these are hardly "shoddy" sources.
Taylor spews: Tell us, truthfully (no, go ahead and lie),
padikiller notes: Now this is typical liberal nastiness. When you can't address an issue squarely, resort to slime. Grow up., Taylor.
Taylor drones on: how many of these articles have you read? The list looks like a rehash of those produced by Marc Morano, formerly the head PR flack of Senator Inhofe's minority EPW committee and "Swift Boat Veterans for Disinformation and Propaganda."
padikiller responds: So what? The citations are there, in black and white, no matter who compiled them.
Taylor babbles: The list of authors (Soon, Balliunas, Singer) reads like a Who's Who of debunked and discredited authors, who have about as much credibility on the subject of climate science as Ahmed Chalabi (are you going to cite him next?).
padikiller responds: LOL.. There are dozens upon dozens of authors on this list of peer-reviewed articles. Yeah.. They're all a bunch of ignorant dumbasses... Anyone who doesn't buy into the AGW mantra is an ignorant dumbass.
GPL routinely publishes peer-reviewed articles from ignorant dumbasses, right?
Get a grip, Taylor.
#51 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 01:11 AM
Mr. padikakes,
So, how many of the articles have you read? Please explain how they undermine the science of AGW.
Yes, there are a few sources that aren't discredited among the lemons on your list, and they don't say anything that undermines AGW, from what I've seen. Several support the consensus that rapid climate change will cause extreme disruptions of species diversity (for example, a Science article on the list, "A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates, was cited by dozens of other articles, such as "Late Holocene drought responsible for the collapse of Old World civilizations is recorded in an Italian cave flowstone," and "Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems").
In another example from your list, the abstract for an article in Science states, "Some researchers say the data make solar variability the leading hypothesis to explain the roughly 1500-year oscillation of climate seen since the last ice age, and that the sun could also add to the greenhouse warming of the next few centuries." Apparently, these authors don't dispute that AGW is occurring and is something we should be concerned about.
It might be news to you, but none of the scientists who agree with the consensus that AGW is occurring and is a threat would argue that there is no natural variability of climate.
#52 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 02:16 AM
My 3rd paragraph in the previous post should have stated "In the same example from your list..."
This example just illustrates what many others have found from perusals of such lists compiled by PR organizations such as the Heartland Institute (shills for the fossil fuel and tobacco industries): the cited research has either been discredited, or it doesn't actually undermine the science of AGW. Many scientists whose work has been included on such lists have asked not to have their work cited in this manner, because they feel their research is being misrepresented (unsurprisingly).
#53 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 03:14 AM
"The answer of course, is that AGWists can't provide an "ideal" CO2 concentration. There is no scientific basis for correlating any specific CO2 concentration to any specific average global temperature. Its all just an anticapitalist fairy tale."
We can and we have provided such a number. 350 ppm. This is the number Hansen has proven is safe. Look it up. I posted it here someplace before. We know how much CO2 is human caused because we measure it using the Suess Effect. We know how much the global mean temp has increased, how fast- unprecedented and what the correlation is.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-CO2-Temperature-correlation-over-the-20th-Century.html
I've posted this information repeatedly and padikiller responds, or ignores, using disproven junk from wingnut sites, and then makes an ad hominem political tag to wrap it up. Good work if you can get it but it soundly loses any debate about the merits of science.
His answers are so canned and cliche, and laughably false, that he isn't even a very interesting sceptic.
Right on Taylor.
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?
Authors: J. Hansen (1 and 2), M. Sato (1 and 2), P. Kharecha (1 and 2), D. Beerling (3), R. Berner (4), V. Masson-Delmotte (5), M. Pagani (4), M. Raymo (6), D. L. Royer (7), J. C. Zachos (8) ((1) NASA GISS, (2) Columbia Univ. Earth Institute, (3) Univ. Sheffield, (4) Yale Univ., (5) LSCE/IPSL, (6) Boston Univ., (7) Wesleyan Univ., (8) Univ. California Santa Cruz)
(Submitted on 7 Apr 2008 (v1), last revised 15 Oct 2008 (this version, v3))
Abstract: Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.
http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126
#54 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 05:23 PM
AGW is well-established. The list of papers is quite long as the references in this one show.
Coherence established between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
CYNTHIA KUO, CRAIG LINDBERG & DAVID J. THOMSON
Mathematical Sciences Research Center, AT&T Bell Labs, Murray Hill, New Jersey 07974, USA
The hypothesis that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is related to observable changes in the climate is tested using modern methods of time-series analysis. The results confirm that average global temperature is increasing, and that temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v343/n6260/abs/343709a0.html
#55 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 06:07 PM
From Professor York's post: "Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months"
padikiller notes: This twenty year-old article is great reading... Too bad that since 1995, carbon dioxide has been steadily increasing, while temperatures have held steady...
Back to AGW fiction aisle, Professor York...
Nice try, but no cigar...
#56 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 08:08 PM
Until Mr. Padikakes demonstrates some actual knowledge and ability to contribute meaningfully to the subject under discussion, he will be deservedly ignored.
#57 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 08:34 PM
More Warmingist Silliness Bites The Scientific Dust
You Upper East Siders can ease up on the sand bags.. The sky isn't falling and the sea isn't rising.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/21/sea-level-geoscience-retract-siddall
#58 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 08:46 PM
Jesus Christ. You can't read, From YOUR ARTICLE:
"Many scientists criticised the IPCC approach as too conservative, and several papers since have suggested that sea level could rise more. Martin Vermeer of the Helsinki University of Technology, Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany published a study in December that projected a rise of 0.75m to 1.9m by 2100...
In the Nature Geoscience retraction, in which Siddall and his colleagues explain their errors, Vermeer and Rahmstorf are thanked for "bringing these issues to our attention"."
What do you do, man? Read headlines and then mindlessly post?
Climate Zombie Padkiller: BRAINS. CLIMATOLOGIST BRAINS. CO2 GOOD.
Joke is thee, knave.
#59 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 10:17 PM
Well read, Thimble. The retraction by Siddall et al. also puts the lie to any idea of a "conspiracy" among climate scientists to undermine the peer review process. They made an error, recognized it, and now they are going to fix it. That's how a healthy scientific process works.
On the other side, you have authors such as Douglass, Christy, Pearson, and Singer, who have failed to correct a known serious statistical error in their paper, "A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions," published in International Journal of Climatology, December 2007 (see http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/SanterOpenLetter3_v5.pdf).
#60 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Sun 21 Feb 2010 at 11:11 PM
Thanks Taylor, though I don't deserve credit for being able to read, a faculty common enough you'd think the SKEPTICS would know about it.
PS.
Hey Curt, your name turned up on Real Climate in regards to the terribly bad climate journalism on display in Britain lately.
"But even more concerning is the reaction from outside the UK media bubble. Two relatively prominent and respected US commentators – Curtis Brainard at CJR and Tom Yulsman in Colorado – have both bemoaned the fact that the US media (unusually perhaps) has not followed pell-mell into the fact-free abyss of their UK counterparts. Their point apparently seems to be that since much news print is being devoted to a story somewhere, then that story must be worth following. Indeed, since the substance to any particularly story is apparently proportional to the coverage, by not following the UK bandwagon, US journalists are missing a big story. Yulsman blames the lack of environmental beat reporters for lack of coverage in the US, but since most of the damage and bad reporting on this is from clueless and partisan news desk reporters in the UK, I actually expect that it is the environmental beat reporters prior experience with the forces of disinformation that prevents the contagion crossing the pond. To be sure, reporters should be able and willing (and encouraged) to write stories about anything to do with climate science and its institutions – but that kind of reporting is something very different from regurgitating disinformation, or repeating baseless accusations as fact.
So what is likely to happen now? As the various panels and reports on the CRU affair conclude, it is highly likely (almost certain in fact) that no-one will conclude that there has been any fraud, fabrication or scientific misconduct (since there hasn’t been). Eventually, people will realise (again) that the GW hoaxers are indeed cranks, and the mainstream window on their rants will close. In the meantime, huge amounts of misinformation, sprinkled liberally with plenty of disinformation, will be spread and public understanding on the issue will likely decline. As the history of the topic has shown, public attention to climate change comes and goes and this is likely to be seen as the latest bump on that ride."
Care to respond?
#61 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 12:13 AM
Ah hell, forgot the bloody link.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/whatevergate
#62 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 12:14 AM
[My 3rd attempt at posting a version of this; for some reason these keep getting sent to "moderation," while most of my messages have been posted instantly. If this gets through, the moderator can ignore previous versions in the queue.]
Mr. Brainard hasn't really made a case for why the U.S. media should be providing more coverage to the largely manufactured controversy over stolen e-mails from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. In fact, the allegations against the IPCC have been getting a disproportionate level of coverage in the U.S.:
"the worst, one sided reporting I have ever seen"
How can Mr. Brainard argue that these overblown accusations aren't getting enough media attention in the U.S., when unfounded allegations by such discredited, non-scientific sources as Anthony Watts (who has no degree in any scientific discipline) and "Lord" Monckton of Benchley are given front-page coverage in the so-called "newspaper of record," in an article that doesn't cite even a single climate scientist?
#63 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 02:00 AM
IPCC Authors Ignore Challenge To Biofuel BS Claim
Another day, another example of liberal crapola masquerading as "science" in the IPCC reports.
http://www.grain.org/m/?id=154
#64 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 08:24 AM
Sorry, you're going to have to prove you read that item before I touch it. I've learned not to accept such things on faith.
#65 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 12:17 PM
Thimbles wrote: So what is likely to happen now?
padikiller responds: Here's my take.
Any truly independent Indian climate review will take years to complete. This passage of time cannot aid the AGW cause unless the Earth starts to actually warm REAL fast in a manner that all Earthlings can sense on their own.
In those intervening years, developing countries will become the largest CO2 producers by far. The two most up and coming CO2 producers (Russia and China) are each permanent members of the Security Council of the U.N - the only international body that has the power to actually do anything. Neither of these countries will be amenable to caps and each will veto any real CO2 production limitations.
There has been no statistically significant global warming for the last 15 years. The AGWists are already scrambling to deal with the fact that their "hockey stick" models have failed - the simple truth is that none of the alarmist models predict a 15 year period without warming. If a few more years go by without significant warming, the AGWists will become modern day Flat-Earthers, in the minds of the greatest majority of citizens of developed countries.
The Climategate/IPCC scandal has skewered the AGW cause. Copenhagen was a joke, and Mexico City will be a farce. Such silliness, beamed bu satellite around the world, will further undermine the AGW agenda.
Every day seems to bring another example of defective science in the AGW ouvre, and all of the defects that have been discovered thus far(whether due to error or fraud) overstate the AGW case. Such a one-sided record can only lead a reasonable fence-sitter to conclude that there is a pervasive AGW bias afoot. The damage to the credibility of the AGWists has been severe.
The only practical hope that AGW proponents have in reviving their cause is that real, unequivocal evidence of significant global warming turns up REAL fast. Given the fact there has been no significant global warming in the last 15 years, it would seem unlike that such rapid warming will occur.
So far, the UN has been driving the AGW movement, and the undeveloped countries have used the UN and IPCC to orchestrate a global shakedown of developed nations. Indeed, the only American contribution to Copenhagen was Hillary Clinton's pledge to toss money at the third world. This plan will certainly not grow in popularity during the next few years.
As the European and American economies suffer, and as the ecomonies of Brazil, China, India, and other "developing" nations with increasing induxtrialization continue to expand, there will be much less international support for such handouts.
Finally, if the Republicans take Congress and if Obama loses to a Republican in 2012, I anticipate that U.S. will copy India and redo the climate review from the ground up, using more sloar data and relying more on astrophysicists, than "climatologists". If this happens, AGW will die an inglorious death.
#66 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 12:47 PM
@ Padikiller:
Cheep!
#67 Posted by Crickets, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 12:57 PM
"There has been no statistically significant global warming for the last 15 years. The AGWists are already scrambling to deal with the fact that their "hockey stick" models have failed - the simple truth is that none of the alarmist models predict a 15 year period without warming."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PWDFzWt-Ag
Stop repeating mistakes.that have been publicly corrected.
ps
"I anticipate that U.S. will copy India and redo the climate review from the ground up, using more sloar data and relying more on astrophysicists, than "climatologists". If this happens, AGW will die an inglorious death."
So you believe in the solar theory when the hottest decade on record and the second hottest year (2009) took place during a solar minimum.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm
A special insight indicative of a special mind.
#68 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 01:48 PM
To argue that the Earth has experienced statitscally significant warming over the last 15 years is absurd.
It simply hasn't. Even Phl Jones, the CRU director who is at the center of the Climategate scandal, admits as much.
I have no "belief" regarding solar physics. However, I have heard several physicists complain that they have been locked out of the global warming debate and that solar variability has not been given serious consideration by the Believingists. Given the prominence of American physicists, I believe that if an independent American climate change comes about, that the physicists will play an important role.
Unless some unequivocal evidence of warming comes around REAL fast, I think AGW is dead. Certainly, no developed nations are going to toss money at CO2 cap or reduction programs if India has hopped back on the fence.
#69 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 07:29 PM
The decade of 1998-2007 is the warmest on record, according to data sources obtained by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global mean surface temperature for 2007 is currently estimated at 0.41°C/0.74°F above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.20°F….
Since the start of the 20th century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C. But this rise has not been continuous. The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.
#70 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 09:00 PM
Professor York Changes His Tune: AGWism, Stupidity Illustrated
Here is Dr. York, in an earlier post on this very thread!:
padikiller asked when Dr. York griped about a 15 year period of cooling: "I wonder exactly how long a period of time needs to be before it is assigned any meaning nowadays?.."
Dr. York replied authoritatively then: "100 years. Climate is long term. Weather is short. Wingers are ignorant about every assertion on climate. These are constants."
Dr. York dances the "AGW Two-Step" now: "The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years."
padikiller scoffs at the silliness: Now Dr. York... If it takes a period of 100 years to be meaningful (as you plainly stated), then why are you touting a meaningless 50 year period now?
HUH?
How about it, there "Doc"?
#71 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 09:44 PM
How about instead of Mr. York answering your inane and repetitive attacks based on definitions you've invented for misreported quotes, you stick to the definitions used by the scientific community, skeptic or not.
statistically significant is the a measure of phenomenon's frequency for the purpose of establishing a trend.
statistically significant warming is the measure of warming event frequency for the purpose of establishing a trend.
Dr. Jones said that the warming events were frequent enough over the last 15 years to almost meet the statistical significance threshold of 95%.
So there is a big BIG difference between your claim of "No significant warming over the last 15 years" and what Phil Jones said "there have been warming events over the last 15 years, but 15 years is too small a time frame to claim 95% chance of a trend."
You have been publicly corrected AGAIN. There's no excuse to continue using bad claims unless you are being intentionally dishonest.
So stop it.
#72 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:27 PM
Thimbles wrote: Dr. Jones said that the warming events were frequent enough over the last 15 years to almostt meet the statistical significance threshold of 95%.
So there is a big BIG difference between your claim of "No significant warming over the last 15 years" and what Phil Jones said "there have been [almost statistically significant] warming events over the last 15 years, but 15 years is too small a time frame to claim 95% chance of a trend."
padikller keeps it real: "Almost" isn't science, Thimbles. Neither is "not quite" or "nearly".
#73 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:36 PM
I mean it. Every time you bring up Dr, Jones's quote I think of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buXJlBd3Mf8
And I'm sure I'm not the only one. For the love of all that's holy, stop.
#74 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:36 PM
"padikiller notes: This twenty year-old article is great reading... Too bad that since 1995, carbon dioxide has been steadily increasing, while temperatures have held steady..."
Sadly wrong. I scoff at your dipsydoodle rhetoric. There is no either/or except in fallacies of which all of your reasoning lies. Why is 15 years significant for you i.e. no warming since 1975, but 50 isn't for me? Because you're a blank-slate that's why.
"The prediction of warming from human-released CO2 was made 60 years before the first measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels. The estimates today of warming from CO2 are done, as was done originally, by examining how the laws of conservation of energy play out in the atmosphere. Second is, this analysis is one that is demanded by the people making the claim that there is no such correlation. They are badly wrong, as we'll see. They're either lying, or failing to do their homework. Either way, not sources to keep using."
#75 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:41 PM
OK, I will give it up, for Thimbles sake....
In the last the 15 years, the Earth has experienced a period of nearly significant warming. This nearly significant period of statistically insignificant warming is almost, but not quite, scientifically significant.
There!... Are you happy now, Thimbles?
#76 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:44 PM
"Close enough" works in horseshoes, hand grenades, and statistics when done right, This is.
The semantics padikiller uses are the bifurcation of desperation based on nothing but "throw the baby out with the bathwater" all or nothing fallacy. It is thesis of a moron. That's the only conclusion we can come to given the repetition of ignorance.
#77 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:47 PM
padikller keeps it stupid: "Almost" isn't science, Thimbles. Neither is "not quite" or "nearly".
Thimbles shines forth with the blinding light of reason: Mr. P. Killer? Meet Mr. Heisenberg.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heisenberg_principle
Science is all about "almost" since science is all about observation and even the more arrogant of scientists do not claim to have perfect observation nor perfect knowledge.
Statistical significance itself is an "ALMOST", 95% is almost 100%.
You need to read, do simple math, and stop repeating stupid things as if they're profound. This is getting embarrassing.
#78 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:48 PM
Gotcha rhetorical shell-gaming isn't science. Nearly significant, due to short time frame, which is a cherry pick to begin with, is still warming and warming is increasing. The figures have been posted repeatedly to no avail. Just sad, but stupid.
#79 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:51 PM
"In the last the 15 years, the Earth has experienced events of significant warming. These events of significant warming are almost, but not quite, frequent enough to be statistically significant."
FTFY
Now was that so hard?
#80 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 22 Feb 2010 at 10:53 PM
Let's see, the Russians say there weather stations' data was cherry-picked for convenience; the Australians say their data was cooked (altered to fit); CRU-EA can't find their data now that they're looking for it; NASA'S Hansen has doctored his databases.
"In the last 15 years, the Earth has experienced events of significant warming. These events of significant warming are almost, but not quite, frequent enough to be statistically significant."
How in the world can they tell?
#81 Posted by Wanderer, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 01:08 AM
Oh goody, a laundry list. Let's take out the laundry.
"Let's see, the Russians say there weather stations' data was cherry-picked for convenience"
A claim coming from the
Russian Heritage FoundationInstitute of Economic Analysis. When I hear from the Russian government, who's isn't sympathetic to any kind of climate consensus that might threaten its industrial gas sectors, then I'll pay attention.But until then, it's accusations from a former Putin man, now Cato scholar.
http://mediamatters.org/research/200912180026
#82 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 11:36 AM
"the Australians say their data was cooked (altered to fit)"
No they don't. The climate skeptic con artists do.
If this scandal is like the one the scamers tried to gin up in New Zealand:
http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/news/all/new-zealands-climate-is-warming
I suspect it will fall apart too.
Oh and look, after a bit of searching here we are.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/12/willis_eschenbach_caught_lying.php
#83 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 11:39 AM
"CRU-EA can't find their data now that they're looking for it"
Yes and it isn't always easy to retain records of old data on old information media. It's like going through old cassettes trying to find your old VIC @0 tank vs ufo game. It sucks that it may be gone but it happens.
And it happened to only 5% of the pre-1980 data. Not a big deal.
#84 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 12:00 PM
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/FAQ/wg1_faq-3.1.html
Expressed as a global average, surface temperatures have increased by about 0.74°C over the past hundred years (between 1906 and 2005; see Figure 1). However, the warming has been neither steady nor the same in different seasons or in different locations. There was not much overall change from 1850 to about 1915, aside from ups and downs associated with natural variability but which may have also partly arisen from poor sampling. An increase (0.35°C) occurred in the global average temperature from the 1910s to the 1940s, followed by a slight cooling (0.1°C), and then a rapid warming (0.55°C) up to the end of 2006 (Figure 1). The warmest years of the series are 1998 and 2005 (which are statistically indistinguishable), and 11 of the 12 warmest years have occurred in the last 12 years (1995 to 2006).
So I guess for those who don't think 0.74C increase in gmt is significant in this time frame then it's no big deal. Please say so and get off the merry-go-round. You have nothing significant by any measure to say.
All of thew sceptic sites cook the data, then accuse NASA of doing so. It's ludicrous on its face.
Everyone associated with Watts' site has been caught lying. He doesn't even have a college degree!
#85 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 12:00 PM
These guys are flailing around..
They're trying to convince themselves that "statistically insignificant" warming is somehow significant... They bitch and moan that it takes 100 year interval to be meaningful, scientifically, when faced with inconvenient shorter intervals of colling or steady temperatures, and then they turn right around and cherrypick 20, 30 and 50 year intervals to suit their belief system.. It's just silly and pitiful two-faced worship.
And most importantly, it is also thoroughly pointless.. Even assuming these Believingist guys are right (a hell of an assumption)- as a practical matter, AGW is deader than a doornail. There is no way that any government will throw money at it given the recent scandals and the Copenhagen fiasco.
These poor True Believers are beating a dead horse.
#86 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 12:09 PM
"NASA'S Hansen has doctored his databases."
You are going to have to cite that one. Every search I try gets clogged with dishonest Michael Mann links.
#87 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 12:29 PM
There's only one flailing around here.Well there's a signicant crazy on the Hot Air thread too. Division of labor in the wingnut party I guess. For you no period is significant if it shows warming, or cooling, any ups or downs and especially overall warming of .73C over the historical record. It's all bunk to you. Fine. We accept that you think that. Delusion is not against the law. Just take it and your insults and get out. Who cares what some nut thinks?
Facts are what they are.
"Recorded temperature decreases in the 1950-70s as a result of man-made aerosol and sulfer emissions after WWII. Slowed due to air pollution laws that limited their emissions in the 80s and 90s, but also because of warming effect of CO2 (emitted at the same time) which takes longer to kick in.
Now that we have reduced SO2 emissions, but a lot more CO2 emissions, the global cooling is over-run by global warming."
#88 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 04:38 PM
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/12/15/how-long/
Tamino explains:
"Time and time again, denialists try to suggest that the last 10 years, or 9 years, or 8 years, or 7 years, or 6 years, or three and a half days of temperature data establish that the earth is cooling, in contradiction to mainstream climate science. Time and time again, they’re refuted — shown to be either utterly foolish or downright dishonest or both. Logic seems to have no effect on them.
The simple fact is that short time spans don’t give enough data to establish what the trend is, they just exhibit the behavior of the noise. Of course that raises an interesting question: how long a time span do we need to establish a trend in global temperature data?"
Therefore we need at least 14 years of GISS data (from 1996 to the present) to draw a confident conclusion about the most recent trend. In fact, since we have additional unaccounted-for uncertainty (such as the parameter estimates for our ARMA(1,1) model), we actually need a bit more. Let’s say that less than 15 years of data allows no confident conclusion about whether the trend in GISS data is warming or cooling.
"That does not mean that there’s been no warming trend in those 15 years — or in the last 10, or 9, or 8, or 7, or 6 years, or three and a half days. It only means that the trend cannot be established with statistical signficance. Of course, it’s another common denialist theme that “there’s been no warming.” This too is a fool’s argument; any such claims are only statements about the noise, not about the trend. It’s the trend that matters, and is cause for great concern, and there’s no evidence at all that the trend has reversed, or even slowed."
Go ahead big guy. Prove him wrong. And no Hansen has not "doctored" his databases. That's absurd and libelous. You do know that right?
#89 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 04:55 PM
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/02/16/growthgate/#comment-39358
“Let me first make clear that when judging the significance of trends in noisy time series, you have to make sure that the time span used is long enough. You are not going to find a significant warming trend since last summer — or since last week…"
#90 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Tue 23 Feb 2010 at 05:43 PM
See my article on this topic at WanderingEducators.com:
http://www.wanderingeducators.com/best/traveling/crying-himalayan-meltdown.html
#91 Posted by Seth Sicroff, CJR on Thu 18 Mar 2010 at 07:55 PM
The UK Information Commissioner concluded that climate scientists at CRU violated the UK Freedom of Information Act law - a law that journalists know well. They also report on the substantial conflicts of interest held by Pachauri in terms of his affiliation with at least 20 businesses that would potentially profit from climate change treaty proposals, and that he knew in advance that the glacier claim was false but lied about it. how to get rid of garlic breath
And most importantly, it is also thoroughly pointless.. Even assuming these Believingist guys are right (a hell of an assumption)- as a practical matter, AGW is deader than a doornail. There is no way that any government will throw money at it given the recent scandals and the Copenhagen fiasco.
#92 Posted by Robert Bradley, CJR on Thu 30 Dec 2010 at 09:54 PM
I had a dream to start my own commerce, but I didn't earn enough amount of cash to do that. Thank heaven my fellow recommended to take the home loans. So I used the small business loan and realized my old dream.
#93 Posted by LevyNellie, CJR on Sat 17 Sep 2011 at 07:37 AM