Uneager, perhaps, to provoke the type of criticism that followed the dreadful coverage the “Climategate,” journalists have treated the emergence of a new cache of e-mails (apparently collected at the same time as the first) with a skepticism they failed to exhibit two years ago. While the reporting has been better this time around, however, it’s hard to say that it’s been a lot better.
On November 22, an anonymous group calling itself “FOIA” added a file containing more than 5,000 e-mails taken from England’s University of East Anglia to a Russian server, and then posted a link to the file on a variety websites popular with climate skeptics. With the start of a new international meeting about climate change in Durban, South Africa, this week, many reporters, including The Guardian’s Leo Hickman, quickly observed that the leak was “an apparent attempt to repeat the impact of a similar release of emails on the eve of the Copenhagen climate summit in late 2009.”
Cherry-picked quotes from the first dump, whipped into pseudo-scandal by media outlets on both sides of the Atlantic, led to accusations of fraud within the climate science community. A series of nine investigations in the Unites States and United Kingdom cleared the scientists involved of any wrongdoing, but reprimanded them for being less than forthcoming with some data. The new batch of e-mails seems to be more of the same: quotes that seem damning out of context, but merely reflect the usual pokes, prods, and disagreements that take place among scientists.
Regardless of their content, ignoring the release was clearly not an option. As Mother Jones’s Kate Sheppard explained:
I’d hesitate to call attention to a bunch of stolen, out-of-context emails at all, except for the fact that part of the reason that Climategate 1.0 was blown so far out of proportion is that most people ignored it for so long and let the denial crowd frame the conversation. By the time reasonable people caught up, it was already out of control. Journalists basically ran with the skeptic’s talking points, and despite numerous investigations and exonerations, the incident remained a stalking horse for the global warming denial crowd.
That’s the right outlook, but only a day later Sheppard was expressing understandable disappointment with the media’s performance. Liberal watchdogs such as Media Matters and ThinkProgress were likewise dismayed. Reporters didn’t fall as deeply into the trap as they did in 2009, but they didn’t avoid it entirely.
It’s unsurprising, of course, that the opinion page of The Wall Street Journal would publish the balderdash of James Delingpole, a laughable British columnist and climate skeptic, or that Fox News would call the e-mails “eye opening” without doing an ounce of reporting. The coverage in The New York Times and The Washington Post, meanwhile, was more of a mixed bag.
Both papers produced lacking, late-in-the-game articles about the 2009 e-mails, and both performed better last week, running stories on pages 8 and 2, respectively (the incident clearly does not merit front-page treatment). They basically dismissed the significance of the e-mails, but engaged in a bit of “he-said, she-said” reporting, respectively letting Myron Ebell and Marc Morano, two of the most delirious climate skeptics around, make sweeping assertions that the e-mails are strong evidence of a scientific conspiracy to mislead the public. Beyond that, the Times, whose article was 300 words shorter than the Post’s, did the better job.
Reporters Justin Gillis and Leslie Kauffman won points for doing a little legwork and contextualizing one of the more provocative quotes from the latest e-mails, in which Raymond Bradley, a climatologist at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, said that a seminal 2003 paper reconstructing past temperatures “was truly pathetic and should never have been published.” In an interview with the Times, Bradley confirmed the e-mail was his and stood by his criticism, “but said his comment had no bearing on whether global warming was really happening.”

A Nobel Prize winning physicist resigned his membership from the American Physical Association over its Global Warming position... And you can read about in the NY Times.. where? Or the Washington Post... where?
The Climategate emails make several things clear...
1. Phil Jones misled investigators when he stated that he never deleted emails.
2. These IPCC/CRU climate scientists did everything they could to silence and even retaliate against other scientists who questioned their results.
3. The BBC was deeply complicit in silencing opposing viewpoints.
#1 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 30 Nov 2011 at 03:06 PM
A series of nine investigations in the Unites States and United Kingdom cleared the scientists involved of any wrongdoing, but reprimanded them for being less than forthcoming with some data.
Nothing like have some close friends and cordial colleagues over for tea and calling it an investigation …. one hand washing the other.
I think the best take away from this latest release as well as the first is that climate scientists in private have far more reservations about the methodology and its conclusions than they will express publicly, they are unwilling to have either the data or their conclusions challenged in any serous way, struggle with many of the questions the skeptic community brings forth (urban heat island effect, reliability of tree ring data, modeling validation), and are rather vindictive both personally and professionally when challenged.
One of the big lies dispelled by the latest batch of emails surrounds the Soon and Baliunas paper. Jones and co were adamant that they had nothing to do with the mass resignation from the journal Climate Research but the new emails make evident that it orchestrated by Phil Jones as a publicity stunt to force the resignation of Chris de Freitas and damage the reputation of the journal so nothing that came out of it could make it into the IPCC.
From the media side, what do you expect? Does anyone think that a journalist with no formal education in this field is going to be able to properly evaluate this? Of course not, but because they too believe in what Phil Jones calls “the cause”, its easy to call guys like Michael Mann up, give him space for an uninterrupted rebuttal and churn out an article titled “CLIMATEGATE 2.0: MOVE ALONG, NOTHING TO SEE HERE”.
Two quotes from University of Swansea’s Tommy Wills sum this all up rather nicely: Politicians like Al Gore are abusing the fear of global warming to get into power. What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They'll kill us probably
No “probably” about it.
http://foia2011.org/
#2 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Wed 30 Nov 2011 at 03:36 PM
It's difficult to keep listening to the "complainers" whether they are on blogs or on Fox disclaiming good science just because it is not PERFECTLY CERTAIN that what may happen and when. Science has never been the same as philosophy. The abstract ideas in philosophy can be considered true for all time only because they may not be disproved but the facts and theories of science never will be true forever. The ideas of Einstein are now being questioned re: the speed of light and whether anything else could be faster. Just because it's a "maybe" doesn't make it wrong. it just makes it "maybe" with more testing and more examples to prove or disprove both Einstein's ideas and the new ones just out.
Too many people don't want to take the time to wait or to study the pros and cons of who's right and why or why everyone must just WAIT. They act like two-year-olds that want to be just like Mommy NOW!!!
#3 Posted by trish, CJR on Wed 30 Nov 2011 at 03:52 PM
Chris Brainard weighs into this issue with the same sort of rigor that 'A series of nine investigations in the Unites States and United Kingdom' which 'cleared the scientists involved of any wrongdoing'. That is, they all do so without apparently any real investigation, some of them not actually reading any of the emails, nor acting on their contents.
It is not surprising that Brainard comes to the same conclusion...'Nothing to see here, folks, move on...move on'. He cherry-picks journalists comments but doesn't do any journalistic work himself.
Truth will out though. It is a fact that Climategate 1.0 has nearly destroyed the general public's confidence in climate science as a subject.....deservedly or not. As these new emails are parsed and collated and exposed to public view, this situation will only worsen.
Brainard's 'defending the indefensible'...however noble he feels his cause is....is not journalism, which is what I thought CJR was all about.
#4 Posted by Kip Hansen, CJR on Wed 30 Nov 2011 at 06:48 PM
Curtis wrote: "It’s unsurprising, of course, that the opinion page of The Wall Street Journal would publish the balderdash of James Delingpole, a laughable British columnist and climate skeptic ..."
Which is exactly what I may have written if I was an ideologue who couldn't otherwise hack the frustrating reality that my ideas were effectively debunked.
But maybe that's just me. After all, I'm neither a highly esteemed, journalistic peer-reviewer nor an ideological gatekeeper.
#5 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Wed 30 Nov 2011 at 08:48 PM
Man oh man, the exact same guys who scream "SCIENCE BE PRAISED" over industry friendly results are the ones who cry "screw science" when it goes against them.
Delingpole is an idiot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36Xu3SQcIE0
And no, the private emails of constantly attacked scientists, who's opponents have the integrity of a cockroach, does nothing to disprove the research and observed data.
So the same people keep repeating the same stupid arguments hoping to win in rhetoric what they can't do on empirical grounds. Pathetic.
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 30 Nov 2011 at 09:59 PM
So the same people keep repeating the same stupid arguments hoping to win in rhetoric what they can't do on empirical grounds. Pathetic.
By what definition of the term “empirical” does an unverified, unvalidated climate model fall into? You see, I have done a fair amount of numerical modeling on physical systems and I have never heard my or anyone else’s results described as “empirical”. Pathetic indeed that you, evidently, graduated our nations public education system and cant grasp this concept.
I’ll bring you up to speed on this as I did with the revolutionary concepts of buoyancy and viscosity. An example of an argument based “on empirical grounds” would be that hydraulic fracturing fluids have not been show to not be responsible for groundwater contamination per the Duke, Penn State, Bainbridge township studies/report. You see there were measurements and observations taken which were compared against a baseline and these observations led the researchers to conclude that there was an absence of HF fluids in the water samples.
HALLELUJAH!!! PRIASE BE TO SCIENCE!!!
Keep typing mouth breather.
#7 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Thu 1 Dec 2011 at 12:08 PM
"By what definition of the term “empirical” does an unverified, unvalidated climate model fall into?"
Who's talking about models, Mr. Wizzard? We're talking about observed changes in ocean chemistry, ocean temperature, sea ice levels, etc..
Which NO alternative explanation has been found for. No increases in solar intensity, no increased geologic activity, no significant influence of cosmic pixie dust, nada.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html
Just one thing. Increased levels of gases who's physical properties have been documented to be "greenhouse" in nature.
And you're the type of swell guy who prefers probable extinction to the idea of a Chevy Volt, I get it. Just like you're the kind of guy who prefers big gas and seismic instability over benzene-less drinking water. Totally get that.
But don't pretend it's scientific,.
#8 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 1 Dec 2011 at 12:40 PM
We're talking about observed changes in ocean chemistry, ocean temperature, sea ice levels, etc..
Ocean chemistry ehh … always thought that was kind of a neat “trick”, in the Mike Mann sense of things. They state that the Ph of the “ocean” in the 18th century was 8.179 and that it had decreased to 8.069 by 2010. I always wondered how they could calculate the Ph of seawater in the 18th century to three decimal points when even the best benchtop probe has only +/- .01 accuracy … I know the IUPAC procedure for it and all, but how did they do it back then? No doubt they used some form of data reconstruction based on what … old samples … ice cores … some indirect method. Even worse, they might have gotten it from some numerical mode that spit out reams of garbage. The paper isn’t really clear on this. But any of the methods listed above just won’t do for a modern day apples to apples comparison because ocean pH varies from location to location meaning we cant know with any known degree of certainty what the “average” pH of the ocean was in the 18th century.
Still, its very sciency of them.
Even with this obvious red flag though, I still hear the orgasmic barks from Thimbles of ALL HAIL SCIENCE!!! DEATH TO THE HERETICS!!!. Really makes you think about the lack of critical thinking skills endemic in society.
One of the most upsetting things about all of this is Michael Crichton isn’t around to rub their faces in it.
#9 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Thu 1 Dec 2011 at 01:15 PM
Who's talking about models, Mr. Wizzard?
Well, the IPCC and jackass "scientician" Bill McKibben and his 350 crew come to mind.
PRAISE BE TO SCIENCE!!!!
#10 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Thu 1 Dec 2011 at 01:18 PM
PRAISE BE TO SCIENCE!
Dispassionate "scientist" Phil Jones, the Chief Warmingist wrote:
Tim, Chris,
I hope you're not right about the lack of warming lasting till about 2020. I'd rather hoped to see the earlier Met Office press release with Doug's paper that said something like half the years to 2014 would exceed the warmest year currently on record, 1998!
Still a way to go before 2014.
I seem to be getting an email a week from skeptics saying where's the warming gone. I know the warming is on the decadal scale, but it would be nice to wear their smug grins away.
Questions:
1. Why is this dispassionate "scientist" so adverse to criticism or skepticism?
2. Why does this dispassionate "scientist", who tells us that Global Warming is a looming disaster that needs immediate intervention, want to see more global warming? HUH? Why does he hope that the "lack of warming" doesn't last?
3. Why is this dispassionate "scientist" so vindictive?
#11 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 1 Dec 2011 at 01:58 PM
"Ocean chemistry ehh … always thought that was kind of a neat “trick”, in the Mike Mann sense of things"
Sorry, but when you denialists bring this up as some sort of 'zing', in the face of the perfectly reasonable explanation for it, you kinda reinforce your hackity hack reputation which you guys seem to be set on earning.
Speaking of which, empirical changes:
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/acidoceans.asp
Same trends, no matter where you go, no matter what the local variability. The percentage of CO2 is up, the acidity is up. PRAISED BE SCIENCE.
"Who's talking about models, Mr. Wizzard?
Well, the IPCC and jackass "scientician" Bill McKibben and his 350 crew come to mind."
Yeah, but you were the one making a stink about my use of the term "emperical" in relation to "models" when I never talked about models.
Empirical facts: the CO2 level has gone up in both the atmosphere and the ocean due to human emissions. There has been a measurable increase in temperature in both oceans and atmosphere and an increase in ocean acidity for which there is no explanation other than increased levels of GHG's. We are continuing to increase GHG global emissions.
Now we can talk about predictive validity of models based on those facts, and that's what climate scientists do all the time in your little cherry picked emails, but the facts are confirmed measurements based on documented science which now even your skeptic, Dr. Mueller, has to acknowledge.
So your little hissy fit about emperical was kinda' emperically stupid, thanks.
#12 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 1 Dec 2011 at 04:50 PM
Sorry, but when you denialists bring this up as some sort of 'zing', in the face of the perfectly reasonable explanation for it, you kinda reinforce your hackity hack reputation which you guys seem to be set on earning#
Well shit on toast, if we can’t believe Mann on this subject, then who can we believe?
Expanding on this a bit … just for fun you know#
Phil Jones and co, as has been demonstrated, organized the mass resignation from the journal Climate Research based on the Soon and Baliunas which criticized Mann’s tree ring data# Turns out, unbeknownst to the public, that the adolescent son of NCAR researcher Tom Wigley did a school science project that actually validated Soon and Baliunas’ paper.
Well put! By chance SB03 may have got some of these precip things right, but we don't want to give them any way to claim credit. Also, stationarity is the key. Let me tell you a story. A few years back, my son Eirik did a tree ring science fair project using trees behind NCAR. He found that widths correlated with both temp and precip. However, temp and precip also correlate. There is much other evidence that it is precip that is the driver, and that the temp/width correlation arises via the temp/precip correlation. Interestingly, the temp correlations are much more ephemeral, so the complexities conspire to make this linkage nonstationary. I have not seen any papers in the literature demonstrating this -- but, as you point out
Mike, it is a crucial issue.
Well … I’ll be … SCIENCE BE PRAISED!!!
Same trends, no matter where you go, no matter what the local variability. The percentage of CO2 is up, the acidity is up
Hmmm … interesting … fascinating … titillating … but according to the paper referenced by the IPCC, ocean pH levels were 8.179 in the mid 18th century. Now, I’m no math wiz (well, yes actually I am) but if we look at the authoritative graph you posted, it would appear that the oceans, on average, were above the mid 18th century benchmark only 15 years ago. Now, far be it from me to question either the authoritative website you linked to OR the IPCC, but that just dont compute.
Now we can talk about predictive validity of models based on those facts, and that's what climate scientists do all the time in your little cherry picked emails, but the facts are confirmed measurements based on documented science which now even your skeptic, Dr. Mueller, has to acknowledge.
Yes, the earth HAS warmed by .6 kelvin in the past 100 years … a truly astounding fluctuation and, I might add, unprecedented in the history of the past several millennium (well no, not really). And your point is?
SCIENCE!!!
#13 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Thu 1 Dec 2011 at 05:26 PM
"Turns out, unbeknownst to the public, that the adolescent son of NCAR researcher Tom Wigley did a school science project that actually validated Soon and Baliunas’ paper."
Haaaack. Precipatation correlations weren't the only focus of the paper. Accepting American Petroleum Institute and Koch money to claim "Across the world, many records reveal that the 20th century is probably not the warmest or a uniquely extreme climatic period of the last millennium." was more the focus, don't ya' think?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soon_and_Baliunas_controversy
And it makes sense that there would be a correlation between precipitation and tree ring growth since precipatation is a heat driven process (you have more heat, you have more evaporation, you have more rain, you have more growth). The problem being that precipatation patterns do not stay constant as climate alters. Therefore you get situations where one man's midwest monsoon is another man's Texas drought.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/home-garden-articles/earth-you/global-warming-and-the-science/53597
So, when you lack an instrument record, you have to analyze several temperature correlated relationships from a wide area to filter out the noise from local changes (otherwise the lack of tree growth in a drought zone would indicate a cooling period, when it could just be a fluctuation in a jetstream and globally represents NOTHING).
That's why Mann writes in describing the faults of their writing: "Their logic, in essence, literally EQUATES hydroclimatic and temperature anomalies,
since they hold that the existence of a large extreme in precipitation/drought in a
particular region is as good as evidence of anomalous warmth, in support of the
proposition of e.g. a "medieval warm period". So, in a very roundabout way, what I'm saying is, lets definitely not give these bozos more credit than they deserve!"
But yeah, thanks for surrendering on the nature trick point. Guess changing the topic beats fighting a losing battle, eh?
#14 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 2 Dec 2011 at 04:07 AM
"Hmmm … interesting … fascinating … titillating … but according to the paper referenced by the IPCC, ocean pH levels were 8.179 in the mid 18th century. Now, I’m no math wiz (well, yes actually I am)"
Hey math wiz, do you understand the difference between a sample and an average? I'll keep it simple for you wizzy, ocean = very big place = lots of variability. Three points from ocean = small samples = demonstration of ocean trend, not ocean content. I honestly don't know nor care about the reconstruction data used to calculate the average preindustrial ocean pH, yeah it's uncertain- so what, I care about recent samples measured with accurate instruments to show the trend. You brought up the preindustrial figure, not me.
"Yes, the earth HAS warmed by .6 kelvin in the past 100 years … a truly astounding fluctuation and, I might add, unprecedented in the history of the past several millennium (well no, not really). And your point is?"
Hey math wiz, you know that the Permian extinction only took an increase of 6 degrees to trigger, right? And the full 95% of life on earth = dead took ten degrees right? Those temperature changes took place over between 20-50 thousand years.
So do the math, wiz. Assuming the temperature change stays constant, and there's no reason to do that as the positive feedbacks start firing up - but for the sake of arguement, assume 0.6 change per 100 years. How long until 6 degrees? How long until ten?
1000 to 2000 years respectively, everything dead.
The question isn't "0.6 over 100 years? What's the big deal?"
The question is "0.6 over 100 years? What's driving it?"
Because if what is driving it is not a self correcting anomaly, like the potential period of solar variability that perhaps resulted in the medieval warm period, then we're screwed.
And what drove that .6 increase over 100 years wasn't the sun. We have one potential culprit, human produced GHG emissions. Is that self correcting? No, and from the looks of it, it won't until all the fuel/coal runs out centuries from now. Will the uncontrolled positive feedbacks kick in by then? Yup, and won't all the global warming denialists look stupid when we're all dead.
I just wish you guys could play around and take chances on your own planet, because when you screw yourselves, you screw the rest of us along for the ride.
#15 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 2 Dec 2011 at 04:48 AM
Thimbles wrote: Hey math wiz, you know that the Permian extinction only took an increase of 6 degrees to trigger, right?... ....1000 to 2000 years respectively, everything dead.
padikiller responds: Chicken Little nonsense. Time to toll the Reality Bell:
1. Nobody knows what caused the Permian extinction. PERIOD.
2. Nobody knows exactly how much the temperature increased during the extinction.
3. Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the temperature increased 6 degrees K and that the CO2 concentration shot up to more than 2000 ppm, which nations industrial CO2 output should be blamed the most for the Permian extinction? HUH>
#16 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 2 Dec 2011 at 07:58 AM
Thimbles wrote: Hey math wiz, you know that the Permian extinction only took an increase of 6 degrees to trigger, right?... ....1000 to 2000 years respectively, everything dead.
padikiller responds: Chicken Little nonsense. Time to toll the Reality Bell:
1. Nobody knows what caused the Permian extinction. PERIOD.
2. Nobody knows exactly how much the temperature increased during the extinction.
3. Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the temperature increased 6 degrees K and that the CO2 concentration shot up to more than 2000 ppm, which nations industrial CO2 output should be blamed the most for the Permian extinction? HUH>
#17 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 2 Dec 2011 at 07:59 AM
Padi, that was a really dumb post. Just tell me, is there something to be learned by my showing why its dumb or should I just accept that on this topic you are incapable of learning and move on?
Cause' I'm kinda' bored of schooling you guys on this stuff.
#18 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 2 Dec 2011 at 10:09 AM
Thimbles blithered: "Hey math wiz, you know that the Permian extinction only took an increase of 6 degrees to trigger, right?"
The Reality Bell Tolls: "With the fairly significant evidence that scientists have managed to accumulate, there are several proposed mechanisms for the [Permian] extinction event, including both catastrophic and gradualistic processes (similar to those theorized for the Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction event). The former include large or multiple bolide impact events, increased volcanism, or sudden release of methane hydrates from the sea floor. The latter include sea-level change, anoxia, and increasing aridity. Any hypothesis about the cause must explain the selectivity of the event, which primarily affected organisms with calcium carbonate skeletons; the long (4–6 million year) period before recovery started; and the minimal extent of biological mineralization (despite inorganic carbonates being deposited) once the recovery began."
Contrary to our latest Thimbilism, the R E A L I T Y is that nobody knows what "triggered" the Permian extinction event(s).
But hey! Why let the mere truth get in the way of a "Advocate of Government-Endorsed Redistribution of Wealth" Crack Dream (formerly know as a "Commie Crack Dream" prior to Pravda's... er, I mean CJR's new comment censorship policy"?
#19 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 2 Dec 2011 at 03:52 PM
"Contrary to our latest Thimbilism, the R E A L I T Y is that nobody knows what "triggered" the Permian extinction event(s)."
The scientists know there were a combination of events, one of which was an increase in CO2 that was likely caused by the flood basalt volcanoes in the Siberian Traps. They also suspect the eruptions may have come into contact with coal beds and lit them on fire.
Based on geological evidence, the community approximates enough CO2 was released to warm the planet about 6°. Whether this was enough to create positive feedbacks like methane release or whether there was a meteor collision with an unspecified effect on global climate, we know that increased levels of CO2 pushed pushed global temperatures higher causing extinctions.
Once again, a hissy fit proves unwarranted.
#20 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 02:30 AM
Thimbles blithers further: "[W]e know that increased levels of CO2 pushed pushed global temperatures higher causing extinctions."
padikiller tolls the Reality Bell: Bullshit. "We" do not "know" any such thing.
#21 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 06:30 AM
To Mike H.
Look at the running commentary above. A few individuals, none of whom has any actual expertise in meteorology, bickering over the validity of a complex set of studies over many years concerning climate change, or not. Note my use of the term bickering. That's it in a nut shell. What do their opinions add to the discussion initiated by a fine article by Brainard? In a word, nothing, but the opportunity to blow off a lot of hot air (possibly contributing to an escess of CO2 in the atmosphere). As I've said to you on several previous occassions, the comments section at CJR needs moderation, the goal of which is not censorship, but rather the elimination of detritus.
#22 Posted by Jack, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 10:35 AM
"To Mike H. Look at the running commentary above. A few individuals, none of whom has any actual expertise in meteorology, bickering over the validity of a complex set of studies over many years concerning climate change, or not. Note my use of the term bickering."
I apologize for my part in that, but it's really hard to have a discussion with certain people in another fashion. And when you avoid the discussion, the journal writer is left with unchallenged graffiti all over their walls which robs the topic of its authority. Should one let the truth get pushed off the page, should the messy business of defending the truth be allowed to occur, should comments that are evaluated as untrue be deleted, or should comments that are uncivil - regardless of their truth content, be delete? It's a complicated question, especially without a rating system in place.
" "We" do not "know" any such thing."
I'm not speaking on behalf of "we" considering "you" don't show the capacity to learn from "your" own links:
"Furthermore, if the Siberian Traps eruptions occurred within a period of 200,000 years, the atmosphere's carbon dioxide content would have doubled. Recent climate models suggest that such a rise in CO2 would have raised global temperatures by 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) to 4.5 °C (8.1 °F), which is unlikely to cause a catastrophe as great as the P–Tr extinction"
The Siberan Traps alone are estimated to have produced enough GHG to trigger positive feedbacks, but the traps alone were not enough to produce the evidence found:
"Scientists have found worldwide evidence of a swift decrease of about 10% in the 13C/12C isotope ratio in carbonate rocks from the end-Permian.[45][99] This is the first, largest and most rapid of a series of negative and positive excursions (decreases and increases in 13C/12C ratio) that continues until the isotope ratio abruptly stabilises in the middle Triassic"
This indicates a huge shift in the carbon cycle from organic matter to something else:
"Gases from volcanic eruptions have a 13C/12C ratio about 5 to 8 ‰ below standard (δ13C about −5 to −8 ‰). But the amount required to produce a reduction of about 10 ‰ worldwide requires eruptions greater by orders of magnitude than any for which evidence has been found."
We're not entirely sure what caused the shift, but the most likely culprit was ocean locked methane.
What we do know is:
"There is strong evidence that global temperatures increased by about 6 °C (10.8 °F) near the equator and therefore by more at higher latitudes: a sharp decrease in oxygen isotope ratios (18O/16O);[106] the extinction of Glossopteris flora (Glossopteris and plants that grew in the same areas), which needed a cold climate, and its replacement by floras typical of lower paleolatitudes."
Your link. Argue with the Siberan Traps, the carbon isotope evidence found in the period's rock, and the oxygen isotope evidence from your own link, kthnxgbye.
And for others that are interested, interesting work at MIT is being done on the subject:
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/mass-extinction-1118.html
#23 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 12:18 PM
@Jack: What exactly does your comment contribute to this discussion? I seem to be the only one here discussing the Climategate emails (the subject of the article).
@Thimbles: Your claim that the Permian extinction was "triggered" by temperature increase is just silly nonsense. PERIOD.
Your claim that "we know that increased levels of CO2 pushed pushed global temperatures higher causing extinctions" is even sillier.
The best evidence indicates that the temperature increase in the Permian event was due to methane... NOT CO2... And the most likely cause of the extinction appears to be anoxia due to dissolved hydrogen sulfide.
But hey! Why let the mere facts ruin another liberal fairy tale?
#24 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 01:59 PM
"I apologize for my part in that, but it's really hard to have a discussion with certain people in another fashion. And when you avoid the discussion, the journal writer is left with unchallenged graffiti all over their walls which robs the topic of its authority."
Frankly I was more focused on your protagonist in the contest of my comment to Mike H. I appreciate your frustration, but I know any reply to ignorance is an encouragement to the ignorant. Their belligerent rejection of facts and preference for innuendo and insinuation are the grist of the troll. It is not his intention to debate the evidence, but, instead, to obscure the issue of that debate. The commenter that uses the name padikiller is quick and easy with cliches and selective talking points. The reality of the world is irrelevant.
#25 Posted by Jack, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 02:13 PM
To clarify my intended address in the comments above. I was addressing Hoyt.
I can't imagine that that's the same as Mike H. who I did not realize was a commenter's ID.
#26 Posted by Jack, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 03:20 PM
What else is there to say?:
Tim, Chris,
I hope you're not right about the lack of warming lasting till about 2020. I'd rather hoped to see the earlier Met Office press release with Doug's paper that said something like half the years to 2014 would exceed the warmest year currently on record, 1998.
Still a way to go before 2014.
I seem to be getting an email a week from skeptics saying where's the warming gone. I know the warming is on the decadal scale, but it would be nice to wear their smug grins away. --- Warmingist in Chief, Phil Jones
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/1/FOIA/mail/1231190304.txt
#27 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 03:35 PM
"@Thimbles: Your claim that the Permian extinction was "triggered" by temperature increase is just silly nonsense. PERIOD."
Not on land, it wasn't.
"Your claim that "we know that increased levels of CO2 pushed pushed global temperatures higher causing extinctions" is even sillier."
Not according to your wiki leak nor the latest research.
"The best evidence indicates that the temperature increase in the Permian event was due to methane... NOT CO2..."
Likely, but there's some debate about that, as I mentioned earlier. You still don't have a trigger for the methane release without CO2.
"And the most likely cause of the extinction appears to be anoxia due to dissolved hydrogen sulfide."
Perhaps in the ocean, but, true to form, you got the causality backwards:
"There is also evidence that anoxic events can cause catastrophic hydrogen sulfide emissions from the sea floor."
What might have caused the anoxia?
"The sequence of events leading to anoxic oceans might have involved a period of global warming that reduced the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles, which slowed or even stopped the thermohaline circulation. The slow-down or stoppage of the thermohaline circulation could have reduced the mixing of oxygen in the ocean."
Get the simple things right, like causality, and then we can debate the meaning of the evidence.
"What else is there to say?"
How about I say a decade of the near hottest years on record during this:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum/
Which, were I a climate scientist, I'd be ticked off about because I know the oil and gas sponsored idiot parade would use the decrease in solar wattage to argue against the green house warming trend. "there's no warming!" "Yeah, the sun is emitting less energy, so we should be cooling, but..." "Global Warming ain't REAL!"
#28 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 04:43 PM
Thimbles wrote: "Which, were I a climate scientist, I'd be ticked off [emotion doesn't belong in science] about because I know the oil and gas sponsored idiot [no prejudice here] parade would use the decrease in solar wattage [i.e. the FACT that the Earth isn't warming] to argue against the green house warming trend [that, if it exists, amounts to an annual increase in the average temperature of 0.00185%] ."there's no warming!" "Yeah, the sun is emitting less energy, so we should be cooling, but..." "Global Warming ain't REAL!" [you said it, not me]
padikiller notes: As Phil Jones notes... One thing that would really, really bolster the Global Warming Schtick would be if the Earth would cooperate with "The Cause" and actually warm up....
But wait!
If Global Warming is "bad" thing... Then WHY is Phil Jones on record hoping that we get more of it sooner?
HUH?
#29 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 09:23 PM
Oh, so you're just going to skip over that whole "i caused my parents to copulate, therefore i was borned" causality thing, eh? Okay then.. it's not my place to stop you from looking like a moron.
"If Global Warming is "bad" thing... Then WHY is Phil Jones on record hoping that we get more of it sooner?"
Say you have a friend and he's very bad with money. He's several thousand in debt, he's been out of work for months, and he likes to buy stuff. One day he walks into a bank and he tells you, "Hey bud, you want to come with me? I'm getting a new credit card."
You think, "Dude. You have three credit cards maxed out," but he's your friend so do hope he succeeds?
Are you happy when he gets approved and starts raving about how he can afford a new tv?
Does his success help him face reality or find new justifications to avoid it?
#30 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 3 Dec 2011 at 10:19 PM
The Weekly Standard Drops a Dime on the Real Deal with the IPCC: This exchange between Thorne and Jones, along with numerous similar threads in the new cache, is concerned with what should and shouldn’t be included in a chapter of the IPCC’s 2007 fourth assessment report—a chapter for which Jones was the coordinating lead author along with another key Climategate figure, Kevin Trenberth. The complete chapter (if you’re keeping score at home, it’s Chapter 3 of Working Group I, “Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change”) lists 10 “lead authors” and 66 “contributing authors” in addition to Jones and Trenberth. One of Jones’s emails from 2004 displays how explicitly political the process of assembling the IPCC report is: “We have a very mixed bag of LAs [lead authors] in our chapter. Being the basic atmos obs. one, we’ve picked up number of people from developing countries so IPCC can claim good geographic representation. This has made our task harder as CLAs [contributing lead authors] as we are working with about 50% good people who can write reasonable assessments and 50% who probably can’t.”
So much for the "scientific consensus" silliness.
#31 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 4 Dec 2011 at 08:01 AM
Yeah Thimbles...
That makes sense.
Phil Jones, the "dispassionate scientist" behind the IPCC's ridiculous, politically-driven Warminingist nonsense, wants to see more rapid global warming of the entire Earth to "wear the smug grins" from the faces of his critics...
All because these critics are actually his dear friends and he wants to teach them lessons for their own good.
Yeah... That's what is is..
Do you see how silly your position is?
#32 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 4 Dec 2011 at 10:25 AM
Just another post, just another brick in the wall of obtuse that is Padi.
In my little example, you care about the fate of your friend because he's your friend. In the real world, you care about the fate of the world because, "when you screw yourselves, you screw the rest of us along for the ride."
Plus it's never fun when the idiots claim to be right, and claim your work is flawed, not based on science, but based on dumb luck. Sort of like the kid in the Darth Vader costume who claims he can start the car using the force.
"Kid, that was a one time thing. You can't count on the forc..."
"GLOBAL WARMING AIN'T REAL!!1!"
*sigh*
#33 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 4 Dec 2011 at 12:26 PM
Since we're talking about methane:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wofv9o0j1Ew
#34 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 4 Dec 2011 at 02:44 PM
Yeah...
Phil Jones wants more rapid global warming because he "cares about the fate of the world"...
Not because he's politically motivated and vivdictive.
Because what would any "dispassionate scientist" who "cares about the fate of the world" do, but publicly wish for some accellerated global warming?
#35 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 4 Dec 2011 at 05:05 PM
"Phil Jones wants more rapid global warming because he "cares about the fate of the world"...
Not because he's politically motivated and vivdictive." [you said it, not me]
Wow, being the dick in an arguement is a lot easier than it looks!
#36 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 4 Dec 2011 at 06:52 PM
Thimbles...
You claim that Warmingist in Chief, Phil Jones, called for accelerated global warming out of "care for the fate of the Earth".
And I'm a "dick" for stating your claim?
Come now! You can do better than that.
#37 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 5 Dec 2011 at 07:18 AM
"You can do better than that."
I could you know, I really could, but your inability to understand the simplest of jokes, based on behavior 7 posts before (it must be spelled out, mustn't it), limits me.
And with that I am bored. Good day.
#38 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 5 Dec 2011 at 01:19 PM
More proof of the Warmingist B.S. Scam of the Century:
"All methods strongly underestimates the amplitude of
low-frequency variability and trends. This means that
it is almost impossible to conclude from reconstruction studies that
the present period is warmer than any period in the
reconstructed period."
But hey! Why let the mere truth get in the way of the anti-capitalist (formerly called "commie" before Pravda's.. er, I mean CJR's new comment censorship policy) crack dream, right?
#39 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 5 Dec 2011 at 06:25 PM
I just want people to note, when it comes to people who have little to gain from being right since it will cause all the forces in the industrial universe to gang up on them and smear their work, we should not trust them because they are a cabal of evil socialists and snippets of out of context stolen email prove it.
But when it comes to the research of state regulators and universities, who's jobs may be on the line if they happen to show that a state industry is poisoning water, we should trust them at their word when they claim they can't find what's blowing up houses and causing cancer clusters.
http://www.cjr.org/the_news_frontier/the_landman_cometh.php
These are very picky skeptics.
#40 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 5 Dec 2011 at 07:00 PM
The email I quoted is from Bo Christiansen, a respected climate scientist.
The best science says that the climate isn't warming (at least not in the last 15 years) AND the best science also says that fracking fluids don't contaminate groundwater. These truisms aren't mutually exclusive.
There is nothing inconsistent in my reliance on the best available science.
Now the Warmingists, on the other hand, rely on the POLITICALLY MOTIVATED shysters who write garbage like this:
"As Kevin may have said to you, we have a very mixed bag of LAs in
our chapter. Being the basic atmos obs. one, we've picked up a
number of people from developing countries so IPCC can claim
good geographic representation. This has made our task harder as
CLAs as we are working with about 50% good people who can write
reasonable assessments and 50% who probably can't. Getting them all
involved has been a challenge, and we've not really succeeded."
While ignoring, as these grant-sucking hacks must, the huge dissent among the ranks of reasonable scientists who write things like THIS:
"[N]ot to be a trouble maker but……if we are going to really get into the paleo stuff, maybe someone(s) ought to have another look at Mann’s paper. His statistics were suspect as i remember."
"[W]hat Mike Mann continually fails to understand, and no amount of references will solve, is that there is practically no reliable tropical data for most of the time period, and without knowing the tropical sensitivity, we have no way of knowing how cold (or warm)the globe actually got.
"How should we deal with flaws inside the climate community? I think, that “our” reaction on the errors found in Mike Mann’s work were not especially honest.
"Taking the recent instrumental record and the tree-ring record and joining them yields a dramatic picture, with rather high confidence that recent times are anomalously warm. Taking strictly the tree-ring record and omitting the instrumental record yields a less-dramatic picture and a lower confidence that the recent temperatures are anomalous."
"[T]he results of this study will show that we can probably say a fair bit about 100 year variability was like with any certainty (i.e. we know with certainty that we know fuck-all)."
"Also, we set all post-1960 values to missing in the MXD data set (due to decline), and the method will infill these, estimating them from the real temperatures – another way of “correcting” for the decline, though may be not defensible!"
#41 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 5 Dec 2011 at 09:05 PM
"There is nothing inconsistent in my reliance on the best available science.
The best science says that the climate isn't warming AND the best science also says that fracking fluids don't contaminate groundwater."
There is a consistency I'll admit. If you like the results of climatologist's computer model you say it's science. If not, you claim computer models are untrustworthy and garbage and then change the topic to somebody's email.
Because when you try to discuss the science, you consistently look like a tool.
See now what I do is I look at the evidence of what is happening and question the risk of what can happen. So when it comes to climate change, I can see the ice and permafrost melting and temperature anomalies of up to 10°c in the arctic. I can see the migration of species to previously colder climates. I can see the measurable increases of gases with GHG properties which produced the hottest decade in recorded history with 2 years equalling, but not exceeding the hottest year recorded in 1998. And that was during a historic solar minimum, what was supposed to be our little ice age?
According to climate denialist Calvinball, that equals no warming, no greenhouse effect, SCIENCE.
Do you have an alternative explanation/mechanism to explain what we are observing in the real world? And if you do, can we subject your theory of "it's anything but humans!!" theory to as rigorous testing and make as rigorous predictions as we do with "Anthropogenic Climate Change due to Greenhouse Gas Emissions"?
You've got no alternative theory, you've got no evidence of GHG non-effect on the climate system, you've got no reasons why we should throw away the science we have as you'd like other than cherry picked statements out of private emails.
If Darwin had an email list, there would no doubt be scientists questioning certain mechanisms of adaptation (genetics and mutation were an unknown science), arguing about the regression of species, asking for explanations of fossils found outside the geographic region of their inheritors (elephants in North America? Is this evidence of the flood) and I'm sure the church would have liked to have captured those emails so they could pick them apart for heresy, but those emails would not the science. Evolution would not be an invalid theory because of somebody wrote "I think Darwin's a loser for claiming the increase in sparrow beak size is related to harder to reach food sources. It's more likely the sparrow ladies dig big beaks." and it got public. Evolution would be invalid if you proved it wrong.
Have you proved AGW wrong? If so, prove it. Show us your invalidities. Give us your alternative explanations. Produce for us some evidence. Try to get the causual relationships right. :/
Do that or shut up. Science isn't gossip over emails, it's work. Do some work then talk.
#42 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 6 Dec 2011 at 03:35 AM
Thimbles blithered: "Have you proved AGW wrong?"
padikiller responds: The Earth has proved it wrong. It isn't warming in accord with AGW models, as IPCC Warmingist in Chief, Phil Jones, was forced to concede.
For the record, Jones concedes the possibility that the Medieval Warm Period may shoot the AGW silliness to Hell, and also concedes the REALITY that Earth has exhibited no statistically significant warming since 1995.
Only "statistically significant" data has any scientific value, of course.
Anticipating the angry gnashing of reality-stricken Warmingist teeth... Let me render this one simple request - if any of you True Believers can name a particular AGW computer model that can (i) account for the Medieval Warm Period, (ii) predict the silly Mike Mann/IPCC "hockey stick" temperature rise, and (iii) account for the lack of statistically significant global warming since 1995... I'll announce my conversion right here! Let's have the name!
If you can't come up with the simple name of such an AGW computer model, then cowboy up and deal with the R E A L I T Y.
#43 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 6 Dec 2011 at 10:23 AM
" scientifically significant global warming "
Why do you
http://www.cjr.org/the_kicker/meltdown.php#comment-25279
keep doing this?
http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/mia_on_the_ipcc.php#comment-25369
Do you honestly think repeating known misinformation is going to help your case? You must, since you've littered the same comment on every climate post on cjr.
#44 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 6 Dec 2011 at 10:50 AM
Let's try this again:
Anticipating the angry gnashing of reality-stricken Warmingist teeth... Let me render this one simple request - if any of you True Believers can name a particular AGW computer model that can (i) account for the Medieval Warm Period, (ii) predict the silly Mike Mann/IPCC "hockey stick" temperature rise, and (iii) account for the lack of statistically significant global warming since 1995... I'll announce my conversion right here! Let's have the name!
If you can't come up with the simple name of such an AGW computer model, then cowboy up and deal with the R E A L I T Y.
#45 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 6 Dec 2011 at 11:21 AM