politics

“Yikes! Train Moving One MPH Faster!”

March 23, 2005

The annual report of the Social Security Trustees hit the Web today, and just like that, it accomplished what no earthly force had previously done: however momentarily, it drove Terri Schivao and Michael Jackson out of the spotlight.

Why? Because the report came back with shocking news. Two of the doomsday numbers being touted by the president have been moved back, each by 1 year. Last year’s report predicted that the Social Security system would have to start drawing on its trust fund in 2018. This year, it says that will happen in 2017. Last year’s report predicted that said trust fund would be exhausted in 2042; this year’s report moves that date to 2041.

And with this news that the dates with doom have been moved up by all of 2.7 percent of the previously projected time frame, we get these headlines:

USA Today: “Social Security Numbers Get Uglier: Insolvency in 2041”

CNNMoney: “Social Security fund may run out sooner; New trustees’ report: Latest estimates move up by one year date”

Los Angeles Times: “Social Security Going Broke in 2041; Trustees report insolvency expected to arrive a year earlier than previously estimated”

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Those are just the headlines. The AP story that many news organizations have been linking to demonstrates a clear misunderstanding of Social Security when it declares in the first sentence, “The trust fund for Social Security will go broke in 2041 — a year earlier than previously estimated — the trustees reported today.” Like a broken record, we’ve been harping on this from day one: Social Security cannot go broke! It can run out of savings (that trust fund), but for as long as it exists in anything remotely like its current form, it will have an income (from payroll taxes) of many millions of dollars per day.

And another thing: How about some context?

Like, perhaps, pointing out to the general public that these projections are merely projections. In truth, the trustees each year release three projections — an optimistic projection, a pessimistic projection, and one in between. You always read about the latter projection, but as Roger Lowenstein pointed out earlier this year, the optimistic projection has recently proven to be more accurate.

Or like telling the reader that in the 75-year time frame that the projections are meant to cover, one year either way makes no difference. If the projected dates of reckoning had been pushed back to 2019 and 2043, then stories that declared “Bush Proved Wrong: Dates Moved Back” would be just as ludicrous as the ones floating around the Web today.

Thomas Lang was a writer at CJR Daily.