It’s hard to say what was the point of CNN Money’s latest contribution to the retirement debate. The site’s Q&A with Stanford University psychologist Laura Carstensen, called “It’s time to rethink retirement,” did little to clarify for its audience the serious issues surrounding Social Security and retirement that lie ahead. And it ignored fiscal realities many of the elderly face now and will face in the future.
CNN Money—jointly produced by CNN, Fortune magazine, and Money magazine—calls Carstensen, who heads Stanford’s Center on Longevity, “one of the nation’s top researchers on aging.” Perhaps, but she throws out a lot of glib generalities about aging and retirement without any backup. Which studies? When were they done? How did they place in the universe of other similar studies? Readers get a lot of Carstensen opinion, but she’s no expert when it comes to Social Security. Perhaps psychology and the financial nitty-gritty of social insurance don’t mix.
CNN Money’s Donna Rosato asked Carstensen if people can afford to retire early—a fair question.* Carstensen didn’t really answer it, replying “we must overcome the inclination to view old age as bleak. People who look forward to these years are more likely to save.” She talked about making an emotional connection “to your future self,” adding that “those who saw their aged selves saved twice as much as those who didn’t.”
OK. But we wondered: What if someone worked at a low-wage or average-paying job and couldn’t save? What if stagnant wages, rising healthcare costs, rising tuition and childcare, etc. got in the way—not to mention job loss, health problems, or divorce. What if looking at your aged self reveals there just won’t be enough money? According to recent data from the government’s Survey of Consumer Finances panel study 2007-2009, the median retirement account balance for households nearing retirement (ages 55-64) was $86,000 in 2009—down from $104,000 in 2007. It might have helped had the reporter asked Carstensen about those scary numbers.
CNN Money’s writer did say that although “many people intend to work past 65, half of current retirees left the workforce earlier due to poor health or layoffs.” Carstensen fires back that “more people over 55 are employed than ever, and 88% of people 65 to 74 are healthy enough to work.” Who says? Backup please!
“We shouldn’t conflate the problems of today’s economy with the potential for working longer,” Carstensen adds. But problems of today’s economy are quite real. The other day the HuffPost Hill shared a case in point, telling the story of a TV engineer who got laid off before his 63rd birthday and had to take a reduced Social Security benefit of $1700, which he says will allow him and his wife to “remain just above the poverty line.” For the last two years he has searched for work, sending out more than 300 applications. He has yet to get an offer. If there are no jobs, where are people going to work? Carstensen’s answer: They could become mentors or start businesses. The interview didn’t note that mentoring jobs usually don’t pay, or that if people use money for a start-up that goes bust—as most start-ups do—where will they be financially?
Carstensen admitted she was no expert on public retirement programs, but she did have ideas. One of them: Make people wait until age 80 to collect full Social Security benefits, while keeping the early retirement age at 62, “since we need to support those too sick to work.”
That suggestion was so far off the wall I consulted a real expert on Social Security, Paul Van de Water at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities to help address it. He told me he hoped “the author of the proposal would rethink it if he/she understood what it did.”
Van de Water explained that as the full retirement age gets higher, the age for early retirement should also be increased, to keep people from taking a highly reduced early retirement benefit that may not support them through the years.
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I love all these glib experts who tell us we should all set aside 10 or 20 percent of our take-home pay for retirement. Works great if you're making $100k, or even $80k.
You make 32k? Not so much.
AH! but saving 20 percent of your $32k would still leave you with almost the median U.S. wage.
That figure is $26,364, as David Cay Johnston discovered last fall:
http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2011/10/19/first-look-at-us-pay-data-its-awful/
Imagine what it would look like if just once any--and I mean any!--TV reporter confronted one of these retirement experts with the facts about what people really get paid. I bet Suze Orman's head would explode.
It would be great TV.
#1 Posted by edward ericson jr., CJR on Fri 8 Jun 2012 at 07:54 AM
Thanks, Trudy, for focusing on this issue of whether most Americans are really in a position to work longer and the gap between media presentation of this issue and workers' reality in terms of raising the SS and Medicare eligibility age. I'm constantly amazed at how out of touch most media folks are with the economic, employment, and physical realities of the lives of people in their 50s and 60s. Wake up, media folks. There's a 50-50 shot that we'll have a new government in January that will make SS and Medicare and Medicaid policy changes with no regard for the dramatic impact it will have on ordinary Americans. Every once in a while, we get a report that actually looks at the lives of some real people and shows how tenuous their retirement and health care situations are. But then we're back to Alan Simpson and Pete Peterson and Tom Friedman.
#2 Posted by Harris Meyer, CJR on Fri 8 Jun 2012 at 01:26 PM
Trudy toes the leftist line: "That suggestion was so far off the wall I consulted a real expert on Social Security, Paul Van de Water at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities to help address it."
padikiller responds: When wikipedia cites the NYT in describing the "Center on Budget and Policy Priorities" as a "left of center think tank" in the first sentence of its description, you KNOW the place is nothing other than a liberal mouthpiece.
Standard Lieberman Operating Procedure
1. Notice some press coverage that casts Gubmint welfare in a negative light.
2. Run off to some left-wing advocacy group to get some expert to attack the coverage.
3. Rinse and repeat.
So some liberal think tank guy has placed himself in charge of deciding what people "should" do with their money.
Just the latest iteration of the standard liberal "regular people are too stupid to make their own decisions" schtick.
This contempt for the voter typifies the anti-democratic, elitist agenda of the left.
#3 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 11 Jun 2012 at 06:52 AM
The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities does solid work. It's not like on the right where you've got a dozen daddy moneybags waiting to subsidize every helping of droll coming from Frank Gaffney's lips. On the left, there are think tanks and organizations and they better not produce your kind of crap (the kind that Paul Ryan loves to shovel) because they will get bashed around the head for it and the donations, which were fragile to begin with, will dry up.
I can understand why you don't like what they say, but that's a different thing from proving them wrong.
In the meantime, geez ... it used to be 74 was the upper end. Some people really just don't want to pay for someone else's "publicly subsidized vacation". I wonder who.
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 11 Jun 2012 at 01:01 PM
Oh, lookie here.
http://longevity.stanford.edu/sudden-stop-usa/
"The range of policy choices is based on the results of The Solutions Initiative of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which brought together expert plans from the American Enterprise Institute, The Bipartisan Policy Center, the Center for American Progress, the Economic Policy Institute, The Heritage Foundation, and the Roosevelt Institute/Campus Network to address our nation’s fiscal challenges. The six plans in The Solutions Initiative offer tax and spending policy choices from across the political spectrum from which the players may choose.
When these choices still are not enough to solve the nation’s debt crisis, the player must then select from a range of health care futures which have been developed with the Stanford Center on Health Policy and the application of the Future Elderly Model from the University of Southern California/RAND in consultation with the Kaiser Family Foundation and other development partners."
And you can find two Pete Peterson books recommended on their site.
Basically the lie, which is the same lie George Will used in the eschaton link, is :
"When Social Security was created in 1937, the average American lived to age 60. Since then, medical advances have added decades to life expectancy. Most 55-year-olds today will see their 82nd birthday.
Problem is, we haven't adjusted the way we work, the way we save, or the structure of our public programs to support these extra years, says psychologist Laura Carstensen, head of Stanford University's Center on Longevity and one of the nation's top researchers on aging."
That's the lie which should be confronted since, hey, it's on the Social Security website. You'd think Stanford experts on matters elderly would know that,
But I suppose they're too busy trying not to focus on the bleakness of getting old, training their minds instead on the opportunities for the aged in the job market - not this job market, mind you.
You see, if you think of approaching death as a negative, you're less likely to cut the support structures people approaching death need, and how would that solve America's fiscal crisis, hmmn?
#5 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 11 Jun 2012 at 01:18 PM
Yeah, 80 just seems to be a popular number. Why just last week... The worst people in the world talk about their plans for us over cocktails.
It's not their income security. They can afford to be glib about it.
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 11 Jun 2012 at 01:42 PM
In Lieberman Liberal La La Land, a "real" expert means some guy Trudy finds at a left-wing advocacy group who says what she wants to hear.
Anyone who says something she doesn't want to hear is a "fake" expert, by implication.
#7 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 11 Jun 2012 at 04:31 PM
"a "real" expert means some guy Trudy finds at a left-wing advocacy group who says what she wants to hear.
Anyone who says something she doesn't want to hear is a "fake" expert, by implication."
Says the guy who uses the discredited work of boston fed hacks to exonerate his banker buddies, and will use any government source to exonerate his banker buddies in spite of his overriding belief in Gubmint stupidity, Gubmint evil, and Gubmint unaccountability.
Because you can only trust a source when it says the stuff you like.
PS. did you have a complaint about the expert's contention? Or is this just one of your "I don't like this guy's opinion because he smells of hippie" rants.
#8 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 11 Jun 2012 at 05:41 PM
Some people like the number 70.
http://digbysblog.blogspot.ca/2012/06/self-serving-myths-and-billionaires-who.html
"Mexican telecom mogul Carlos Slim, who with a fortune of $65 billion is the world’s richest man, believes that struggling countries need to raise their retirement age to 70 in order to help fix their finances...
One more time with feeling:
MYTH: People are living longer, so it makes sense to raise the retirement age.
FACTS:
• Numerous studies have documented that increases in life expectancy in retirement have been skewed in favor of those with higher incomes and more education, with higher income white men seeing the greatest gains, and low-income minority women seeing decreased longevity.
• Compared to new male retirees in 1982, today’s higher income male retirees can expect to live an additional five years, but lower income men are living just 1.1 years more in retirement.
• For women, overall life expectancy has stagnated, with lower-income women seeing declines in life expectancy, and upper-income and more educated women seeing modest improvements.
• Increases in life expectancies are mostly due to increased survival during childhood.
• Even under current law, younger generations will work considerably longer than workers in the past. The average number of years a 20-year-old man could expect to work rose from 39.0 to 42.0 between those born in 1899 and those born in 1949. Those born in 1999 will average 45.0 years of work before retirement age."
#9 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 14 Jun 2012 at 05:52 PM