Core inflation hit a record low last month, a warning sign that the economy could be heading toward Japan-style deflation.
How do the papers play it? Does it jibe with my impression, as I noted the other day, that papers are much quicker to play up signs of inflation than signs of deflation? Mostly, alas.
The New York Times almost completely misses the story, burying it in the eighth paragraph of a stock-market-was-flat story on B12. That is a big miss. Meantime, it has a B1 story on inflation—in China.
Here’s the lede of its B12 piece (emphasis mine):
Stocks were little changed on Wednesday as concerns about debt problems in Europe persisted, and new reports showed inflation remaining low and the housing sector in the United States remaining weak.
That’s one way to put it. Price increases hit their lowest pace ever (since records began fifty-seven years ago), and you stuff it in a story headlined “Wall St. Barely Budges Amid Concerns for Europe”? Are you kidding me?
First, these “stocks went up/stocks went down” stories are almost always virtually worthless. Unless there’s a significant move (think by at least 2 percent or so), it’s mostly random noise nobody cares about. When “Wall Street Barely Budges,” as the Times headlines it, it’s even less newsworthy. The disinflation story is the big news and “Wall Street Barely Budges” is what you stuff in the eight graph.
This is a story that the Financial Times correctly saw fit to lead its paper with today under a big headline saying “Core US inflation slowest on record.” The FT also notes in the lede that the news bolsters the Fed’s case for printing money with another round of quantitative easing. Applaud the FT for giving the big news of the day big play.
The NYT can’t get to any of that Fed stuff in the one paragraph it gives this news, nor in a separate story actually devoted to how the Fed is defending QE2.
The Washington Post also misses big time. It drops the inflation news into the third-last paragraph of an A18 (the first page of its business “section”) headlined “U.S. regulators probing foreclosure practices.”
The Los Angeles Times, like the NYT, also has a staff-bylined story on Chinese inflation. It has a story on rising gas prices. It has no mention that I can find of the core inflation news.
The Wall Street Journal splits the difference between the two camps—leaning toward the FT side—putting its CPI story inside on the bottom of A4, though it’s good to lead off its page-one Business & Finance column with it. Two days ago, when there was a hint of bond prices rising in the wake of the QE2 announcement (to a record—for the last three months), though, that story led the paper.
But today’s is a good piece, (given more space than the FT’s, naturally), mentioning that the data boosts the Fed’s QE2 argument and that conservative critics are at the same time carping about inflation.
Which (unfortunately) brings Sarah Palin to mind. The headline number of 0.6 percent year-over-year core inflation doesn’t include volatile food prices. They were virtually flat.
And I criticized the press two days ago for its reporting on commodities, zooming in on reports by Bloomberg and The New York Times emphasizing how soaring cotton futures mean hikes for clothes prices. So it’s interesting to see this from The Wall Street Journal (emphasis mine):
Clothing prices fell for the third consecutive month in October, by 0.3%, while prices for used cars and trucks dropped 0.9%.
Here’s where I reiterate what I said in that commodities post about why the press seems to be biased toward inflationary reports:
Like Krugman, it’s my impression (completely unquantified, I concede) that the press is much quicker to trumpet signs of rising inflation than it is to focus on falling prices. Perhaps it’s a psychological quirk: We’re quicker to notice the price of orange juice going up at the grocery store than we are to notice the price of milk going down (or staying the same and being deflated by overall inflation).
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Thanks for continuing to flag this stuff, Ryan. That LA Times gas prices story isn't the only one they've done warning of inflation -- see this Nov. 10 piece hyping fears about rising commodity prices:
http://articles.latimes.com/print/2010/nov/10/business/la-fi-commodity-prices-20101110
Read far enough in, and you see that overall inflation for food prices is projected at 0.5 to 1.5% this year, and is projected to skyrocket to 2 to 3% next year.
#1 Posted by Greg Marx, CJR on Fri 19 Nov 2010 at 04:26 PM
Inflation... deflation... neither is good news for the U.S. economy or for the rest of the world. As an avid research and survival enthusiast, it's time we prepare for the future, all of this bad news surfacing daily is only leading up to a very dire situation. Check out http/survivalist-hub.blogspot.com/ for information on preparedness and http://www.gearupcenter.com for related survival products. Inflation/deflation is very real and is on its way. I see food and clothing prices beginning to rise and its only going to escalate rapidly. My suggestion: Purchase your "emergency products” such as survival food and freeze-dried food NOW, I would also suggest purchasing your clothing and outdoor apparel, some survival gear, survival supplies and even an emergency kit. You just never know what’s going to happen! A peace of mind is synonymous with emergency preparedness! Good luck.
#2 Posted by Tim Ralston, CJR on Fri 19 Nov 2010 at 05:47 PM
It might be instructive to explain why inflation is prioritized over deflation. Ask who does inflation affect, what does it affect, why do so many bankers have a fetish for anti-inflation, why are so many economists unconcerned about labor protection and unemployment?
Think about this and try and come up with some answers. Those answers may give you some insight into why economists and bankers have such a huge blind spot for deflation and other problems related to markets.
Hint, they're using neoclassical eyes to observe an non-neoclassical world. There are some things they just don't see.
#3 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 19 Nov 2010 at 10:03 PM