When reading a typical stock-market story, one that says something like, “Futures Gain Ahead of Obama Jobs Plan,” did you ever think to yourself: “How do we really know the market move had anything to do with the president’s jobs plan? Says who?”
Says me.
I’m a markets reporter. It’s what I do.
I’ve been covering the markets beat for theStreet.com since June, after having been entrenched in the narrow world of M&A news. I wanted a beat with broader appeal. And sure enough, less than three months after the switch, page-views on my stories were soaring. My new-found popularity wasn’t because I had suddenly became a brilliant writer. It was because a volatile turn in the markets simply begged for an explanation, sending thousands of extra readers my way.
At about the same time, though, the drudgery of writing the market-close story—stocks up on this; stocks down on that—began to make me wonder whether chasing the inevitable day-to-day ups and downs of markets was worth anyone’s time. Some critics say markets reporters must suffer from A.D.D., because short-term fluctuations in stock indices really don’t matter much in the long run. They say it’s absurd to pin a single narrative on spot news involving countless individual decisions, many of them made by robots. Too often, coverage favors one slant if stocks are up and another if stocks are down when, in fact, nobody really knows.
And yet, the bigger the swing in the Dow, the more urgent the need to chase down an explanation, even if it’s a short-term one. Indeed, larger swings actually predict greater reader interest, which, in turn, validates the coverage.
The public understands that something is a bit off-kilter, as we see frequently in reader comments on our daily market stories:
Investors aren’t the ones changing their minds. It’s the day traders and the HFT algos. that are changing our minds for us, we just side on the sidelines and watch the fake sentiment. Nothing has changed about Mr. Ben in the last 4 days; nothing has changed about Europe, either. However, to read Marketwatch and CNBC, you’d think one day we predict Ben is gonna do nothing, the next day we predict he will save the world. A whole lot of trader manipulation and media amplification.
Not long into this gig, I learned the dangers of putting too much weight into any one event or explanation.
Five days before Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke was set to speak in Jackson Hole, on Friday, August 26, news outlets were pegging a surge in stocks to hopes that Bernanke would hint at further quantitative easing. On the Tuesday and Wednesday before the speech, the Dow added roughly 450 points. By Thursday, stocks were dropping. The consensus became that whatever “optimism” on Bernanke that had led stocks higher was fading. All this happened without a single word from the Fed chairman.
In response to four stories that appeared on the Tuesday before Bernanke’s speech in Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and PBS NewsHour, investment strategist Jeff Miller wrote a blog post headlined “Interpreting the Market: Good Luck!”
Among the headlines that he said were “all wrong” that day were “Wall Street Jumps on Fed optimism,” and “Stocks Jump on Hopes for Fed Action.”
“The idea that all of a sudden people got the idea that Bernanke was going to do something, to me, is just kind of crazy,” Miller said later when I reached him on the phone. “There is too much meaning inferred from what is normal volatility or variation.”
A better explanation for the Tuesday rally was that the huge stock sell-off in early August had set up markets for a relief bounce. After seeing a bit of upside, some investors got antsy enough to want to jump back into equities. And when stocks ran up so sharply at midweek, some decided to take profits, as the saying goes, and get out.

"Throwing our hands up is just as extreme an overreaction as pinning a day’s move on a single event. For one thing, it’s a sure way to lose readers, who are grasping for an explanation."
In centuries past, when sickness plagued a village, citizens grasped for answers from priests and other holy men. Their unwavering counsel: "buy on the rumor and sell on the news."
Just kidding! Actually, they said it was witchcraft.
#1 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Mon 3 Oct 2011 at 04:28 PM
Reminds me of the caption in the New Yorker under a cartoon of a television stock market reporter: "On Wall Street today, news of lower interest rates sent the stock market up, but then the expectation that these rates would be inflationary sent the market down, until the realization that lower rates might stimulate the sluggish economy pushed the market up, before it ultimately went down on fears that an overheated economy would lead to a reimposition of higher interest rates."
#2 Posted by Mike Robbins, CJR on Mon 3 Oct 2011 at 05:45 PM
A new software program, HFT Alert, was released last week. HFT Alert monitors for HFT and Algorithmic trading systems and the stocks being targeted. It works in real time and has various detection algorithms built in that will identify 'flutterers' and 'cycle repeater' algo among others. It also shows the overall level of activity across exchanges.
Today's activity was extremely high, much higher than the last several big down days. This software is very useful especially for portfolio managers and traders monitoring groups of stocks.
There's info at the website at www.hftalert.com. Some videos as well.
#3 Posted by Steve Hammer, CJR on Mon 3 Oct 2011 at 08:01 PM
I've been a business editor for almost a decade and a half. The daily scramble to ascribe reasons for the market slipping half a percent or nudging up two-thirds a percent is often comical, not so often illuminating. I think Taleb largely has it right when he says we screw up these stories. There is usually no single, overarching reason -- or at least none that we are able to ferret out that fits in a nice, neat box. I tell people: If someone drops a nuclear warhead on Manhattan, the market will plunge and a stocks writer will be justified writing, "The S&P plunged 40 percent because a nuclear warhead exploded over Manhattan." But what's more typical is that the market sloshes around, and why that's happening isn't so easily explained. Still, I know the box this reporter is in. We who cover markets have no self-respecting way to write, "The S&P rose 15 points and I have no clue why." So the dance goes on ...
#4 Posted by Financial Editor, CJR on Wed 12 Oct 2011 at 06:39 AM
Disclosing that you write for theStreet.com is akin to explaining to your girlfriend that you have genital herpes the morning after boning her over 11 times in every room of your house the previous night.
I mean Cramer....OMFG....surely you feel the need to shower at least three times a day?
How on EARTH do you explain to family and friends that you have anything whatsoever to do with that creature?
#5 Posted by Herman D. HugeLoad IV, CJR on Wed 12 Oct 2011 at 05:14 PM