Today’s Washington Times leads with a provocative piece by Bill Gertz, stating that the explosion in North Korea on Sunday might have been triggered by little more than conventional explosives. “US officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast’s readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation,” reports Gertz. The unnamed official also added, “It appears there was more fizz than pop.”
The piece stops short of suggesting that the North Koreans attempted to fake a nuclear detonation, but provides fodder for speculation. “There were wide variations in seismic data of the North Korean blast,” continues the Times article. “The French atomic agency estimated about 1 kiloton, and South Korea’s geological institute said half of that. But Russia’s defense minister expressed ‘no doubt’ that North Korea detonated a nuclear test and said the force of the underground blast was equivalent to 5,000 to 15,000 tons of TNT.”
Jeff Bliss and Judy Mathewson of Bloomberg.com confirm the report, quoting Arthur Lerner-Lam, a senior research scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, which helps the U.S. monitor compliance with nuclear test ban treaties, as saying, “An explosion of TNT that was sufficiently large would look the same on a seismograph as a nuclear explosion if the TNT were exploded all at once.” The article adds, “While [Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Christopher] Hill said on CNN that it may take ‘a couple of days’ to figure out what happened, scientists said it may take weeks or even months of seismographic studies and comparison of air samples and other data.”
The apparent uncertainty among seismologists and public officials has got bloggers trying to read Kim Jong Il’s mind.
“Kim Jong Il is hardly the most stable guy in the world and a hoax is certainly possible,” asserts Karl of Leaning Straight Up. “Why? To force us to deal as if it was true. And that really brings up an interesting question. Should we? They are demanding 1 on 1 talks. Why? I say tell them to pack sand. Plant a few nukes in Japan and South Korea to maintain balance, and tell him to piss off. But I am not a diplomat obviously so I am sure cooler heads will prevail. But it makes me wonder. Why is the US the pivot person here? Why do we have to solve this issue? I thought so many countries resented our position of prominence and arrogance. So why think we can solve this one? Let China rein in the little maniac. They made him.”
“They can claim what they like, but from what I’ve seen, I think North Korea is lying,” agrees Political Cortex. “Nuclear tests generate energy equivalent to a small earthquake, and as a result are visible on seismographs. Large tests can be seen around the world. Even small tests (by which I mean something on the scale of the US “Trinity” test) are visible over a fairly broad area. The 3.58 magnitude event that South Korean sources initially reported is not too far from what would be expected with a small device.”
Others were hesitant to believe that North Korea had faked it.
“Everyone looking at this is confused,” writes Blue Crab Boulevard. “Frankly, this is going to just complicate the situation at the UN. If there is no consensus what exploded, how are they going to reach a consensus on what to do about it? I really can’t believe Kim would be so dumb as to fake a nuclear explosion, so I am of the mind that it was either a proof of concept or a partial fizzle. If they can determine that there is some radioactive seepage, that will at least put that issue to rest. That may take a few days, however.”
“However, there is another possibility,” suggests Wretchard from the Belmont Club. “Kim Jong Il is testing suitcase nukes. The probable design heritage of a North Korean suitcase nuke would probably be Russian. Here’s some of the little that is known about such weapons. The disturbing them about them is that they were rated at one kiloton, very close to the measured North Korean yield.” Adding that, “The probable design heritage of a North Korean suitcase nuke would probably be Russian.”
One blogger, on the other hand, suggests that the source of the confusion could be a more nefarious suspect closer to home.
“Nothing out of North Korea would surprise me, but wouldn’t it be interesting if it turns out that this was a fake,” writes Hang Right Politics. “What would be the motivation to doing that? To provoke war? Or was it a plan by the evil genius, Karl Rove to divert attention from scandals?”
Mark Boyer was a CJR intern.