Read through the coverage of any presidential campaign and you will invariably find instances in which the conventional wisdom was turned on its head. Yet there is a sense that the conventional wisdom about the current contest has been especially wrong. The New York Times, itself a chief purveyor of conventional wisdom, said as much in a March 9 analysis that claimed the “accuracy rate” has plummeted to “new lows.”

It’s difficult to say definitively that the press and pundits covering the 2008 campaign have missed the mark more often, and by a wider margin, than in elections past—though given everything from “McCain’s done” to “It’s all about Iowa,” it’s not hard to believe. What one can say definitively is that conventional wisdom is vulnerable in large part because it is often based on imperfect and incomplete information; and that the source of the vast majority of that information—reporting by mainstream news outlets—is under assault as never before.

The steady drip of buyouts and layoffs has consumed an estimated four thousand newsroom jobs in print alone since the turn of the century, according to the much-chewed-over annual State of the News Media report released in March by the Project for Excellence in Journalism. As to whether the Web is replenishing this reportorial firepower, the authors are blunt: “In print, broadcast and elsewhere, more effort is moving to packaging and repurposing material….But less is being devoted to original newsgathering, especially the bearing witness and monitoring of basic news.”

The current presidential election is arguably the most important in recent history, given the magnitude of the problems the winner will confront on day one—yet fewer seasoned reporters are questioning both candidates and voters; fewer journalists are out bearing witness. Meanwhile, the ever-growing armies of pundits deployed by cable outlets on Big Nights—the...

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