The Los Angeles Times has a really good look at the failure of Solyndra, the solar-power company that went bankrupt earlier this month despite a $528 million Department of Energy loan two years ago.
This isn’t a story about the machinations of the Obama administration or an investigation into why the FBI raided the company as it was failing. It’s a story about Solyndra’s business, why it was so promising, and why it ultimately didn’t work.
The main reason: Plunging commodity prices made it impossible for Solyndra’s newfangled solar panels to compete with traditional silicon ones made in China. Silicon prices had gone nuts until the economic crash, up ten times in a “few years,” according to the LAT. Back in 2008, when Solyndra was ramping up, silicon-panel prices had soared to $4.19 per watt. They’ve since plunged to $1.25 a watt as silicon prices have fallen roughly 90 percent.
That’s good news if you want cheaper solar energy (and don’t care about Americans manufacturing the tech). It’s terrible news for a startup trying to knock off an existing technology.
The LAT makes it clear that the private sector was dazzled by Solyndra:
“It was revolutionary,” said Walter Bailey, a former Macquarie Capital investment banker who specialized in green technology and visited Solyndra in 2008. “You had some of the smartest money in the world getting behind it. It was a real company with a huge factory and an extremely unique product…
One investor, British billionaire Richard Branson’s Virgin Green Fund, bragged that it had selected only Solyndra from a pool of 117 solar companies seeking backing. Other investors included billionaire Oklahoma oil baron George Kaiser, and a fund that manages the money of the family behind Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Wall Street heavyweight Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was its lead investment banker.
“Very high-profile money was all over that company,” said Bailey, the investment banker. “Nobody else had anything as strikingly different as Solyndra.”
Keep that in mind when you hear people blaming public sector’s poor capital allocation for the failure and lost taxpayer money. As I wrote earlier, most venture capital investments go bust. The point of investing in them is that you think you’ve found something that has a chance to go very big.
But that hardly lets the Obama administration off the hook. The LAT notes that silicon prices had already plummeted below $100 a pound from $1,000 a year earlier by the time the Energy Department made the loan in May 2009.
Solyndra sold its panels for about half what they cost to build, but by early 2009, the price of traditional silicon panels had fallen far below its $3 a watt. That implies that Solyndra’s cost to build a panel was roughly $6 a watt. Even at the peak of the silicon bubble, traditional panels were only $4.19 a watt, and you have to assume the latter included a profit margin. Solyndra’s technology had other advantages: It weighs a lot less, doesn’t get blown around by wind, and is easier to install. Those factors are worth some kind of premium, but 40-plus percent? And by the end of 2009, silicon panels had sunk below $2 a watt, making them two-thirds cheaper than Solyndra’s. With those headwinds, it’s surprising that the company was actually able to grow its revenue from $100 million in 2009 to $140 million in 2010.
But the most consequential line of the story isn’t in the story at all. It’s in the accompanying graphic.
Solyndra panels head steady at more than $3 per watt
That looked okay in 2008, when the DoE was looking at the Solyndra loan and Silicon prices were in a bubble. Even in May 2009, it would have been totally unreasonable to think the price crash was an overcorrection. But that brings up one unspoken lesson from the Solyndra story: Commodity-market bubbles distort markets (I owe somebody a hat tip for that thought. Shoot me a note if it’s you).

i only wish the journalists would do a little more research. first, it's polysilicon, not silicon, that goes into solar applications. in fact it is solar-grade polysilicon that is less pure than semiconductor grade polysilicon. Second, the US is the lead producer of polysilicon, and Hemlock Semiconductor in Michigan is the world's largest maker. In addition, Wacker is building a very large polysilicon plant in the US costing billions. Third, the US balance of Trade was significantly helped by US EXPORTS of polysilicon. And, finally, the prices for polysilicon were bonus. Most of the material was sold under long-term take or pay agreements and very little was sold at the so called spot price. The current polysilicon price of around $44 per kg is significantly above the US producers' cost of production.
So much written, and so little understanding. I, however, didn't expect better.
#1 Posted by patrick ryan, CJR on Thu 29 Sep 2011 at 10:50 AM
On another note, these numbers need some verification but if they are true the liberal media sure likes itself a "democrat" scandal.
#2 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 29 Sep 2011 at 12:53 PM
With all the reporting on Solyndra, no one has told us the names of the people on the credit committee at the Department of Energy. We don't know their backgrounds and qualifications, are they still making loans, etc. No one has interviewed them. They made the loan as nameless, faceless bureaucrats and they remain that today.
#3 Posted by Norm Astwood, CJR on Thu 29 Sep 2011 at 03:56 PM
Norm... You honestly expect the "watchdogs" at CJR to hold any government employees accountable for anything?
Seriously?
That's not how it works in Chittumland.
Here's how the story goes:
1. Every other corporate collapse except Solyndra is clear case of fraud, and the SEC and DOJ are conspiring with "Wall Street" to stonewall investigations and "run out the clock" on prosecutions.
2. In Solyndra's case... Hey, companies just lose money sometimes... Investment is crap shoot... You win some, you lose some... Nothing to see here, move on...
3. Well, if you're not moving on, then it's all China's fault... And Bush's fault.. And commodity brokers' fault...
Got it, Norm? Get with the program or Ryan will start censoring your posts, as he has done mine....
#4 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 29 Sep 2011 at 05:40 PM
My god, could reason magazine field a whineyer bitch to beat off the "commie/liberals"?
#5 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 29 Sep 2011 at 07:29 PM
Now that the resident commie/liberal troll has risen from his stupor....
Here are some irrefutable Thimblisms from the Reality Vault:
Thimbles has written that:
1. Columnists should be restricted in the content of their columns based on the color of their skin.
2. The words "steak" and "Ho Ho's" are some kind of racist "code words".
3. Angel Mozilo, the former CEO of Countrywide Mortgage, took a deal from the Department of Justice to avoid criminal prosecution.
Yes, ladies and gentleman, this is the current state of Thimbilistic stupidity.
All of these silly falsehoods actually happened.
That's where we are.
#6 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 12:24 AM
Do you own this blog? No? Then stfu about censorship. REALITY STICK. I don't expect my comments to be unedited when I go on RedState, you have no right to bitch about how your comments get treated here. You are the one choosing to post, you are the one who chooses to be a prick when you post, if you don't like it, don't be a little bitch. Post somewhere else or start your own blog. Isn't that the advice you give others be it in regard to the more serious issues of insurance, unsatisfactory jobs, or prolonged unemployment? What do you think you're entitled to, you commie loser, other than a kick in the ass out of the blog door?
You get to post most of your harassment untouched, quit being such a bitch about it.
#7 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 01:22 AM
Who's bitching about anything? How is stating the REALITY that Ryan has censored my posts "bitching"?
Nobody claimed that the proprietors of this blog don't have the right to delete comments (though the propriety of doing so is of course a matter of debate).
Take a damned chill pill Thimbo and go stalk somebody else.
#8 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 09:01 AM
Did he do so in this thread? No. Does he do so often? No, once from what I've witnessed over the years now. Are you bringing it up now to add to the discussion of the thread? No.
You're being a bitch.
#9 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 11:20 AM
Leaving the troll to lurk under his bridge...
Now we learn that Obama's energy secretary continued to dole out taxpayers' money to Solyndra even after the company defaulted on its loan!
No, there's no scandal here, people.
Nothing to get the "watchdogs" here at CJR interested in doing a little poking around.
The commie interference with the market just doesn't work, as history has shown in every instance. And yet these new commie/liberals insist that the government can do things better than the private sector can.
NEWSFLASH!
Nobody wants solar cells on their roofs. Nobody wants electric cars plugged into their outlets. Nobody wants windmills in their back yards.
There market for this kind of so-called "green" stuff is too small to justify any investment. Anyone who dumps money into it will lose.
So listen up, commies...
If you want to argue that the world would be a better place if we steal from the "rich" to dump money into the money pit of "green" nonsense.. THAT at least is a logically consistent argument - fallacious, yes, ill-conceived, certainly - but logically consistent just the same. Admitting the REALITY that interfering with markets COSTS MONEY is all I ask of the leftists... If they want to argue that the social ends justifies the means and the cost of screwing with market freedom, then we have reached the effective end of debate - just a disagreement that will never be resolved.
But that's not what the commie/liberals are saying. They claim to honestly believe that the government can time markets, pick winners and losers, and generally do better at growing the economy than the free market can... And this position is just stupid. Every single government intervention into the free market comes at the expense of market efficiency. It's ECON 101.
#10 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 12:19 PM
"Leaving the troll to lurk under his bridge..."
Aww, the poor widdle bitch can't take a beating from the reality stick. Diddums.
PS. Who's put a comment here first? Me. Who followed soon after? You. Who's a widdle stalker now? The idiot who's typing on a device and is bitching over a network that came out of government investment and open, unproprietary standards.
"Oh dear, the commies provided me an avenue to mass communicate and now individual websites are censoring me! Who will stand up for my right to free speech?"
Idiot.
#11 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 02:03 PM
And let's not forget the mere $150 million that the taxpayers sunk into the Chevy Volt's new battery plant...
We're dumping that and another $7500 per unit in tax credits into a piece of crap car that goes 25 miles or less on a charge in the winter, has no heat and takes 12 hours to charge up (on household current), unless you run it on its (German) gas engine (in which case it gets 5 mpg LESS than a Chevy Cruze - which is also $20,000 cheaper).
Yeah... They're gonna be beating down the doors to pay $40 grand for these puppies, alright...
#12 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 03:32 PM
And in the news today...
"Solyndra Loan Program on Pace to Commit Equivalent of $6M Per Permanent Job"
"For all the money the federal government is putting on the line to support renewable energy projects that administration officials say are the key to winning the future, the program has saved or created about 2,500 permanent jobs. That's $6.4 million per job.
The numbers come from Department of Energy figures reviewed by FoxNews.com. If temporary construction jobs are lumped in, the jobs total rises to more than 16,700.
Counting all jobs, the government is still committing the equivalent of nearly $1 million per job."
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/30/solyndra-loan-program-on-pace-to-commit-5m-for-every-permanent-job/
Commie/liberalism is wonder to behold!
When they said "green jobs"... They really meant "LOTS of green, jobs".
#13 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 1 Oct 2011 at 02:52 PM