The New York Times reports that newspaper advertising tanked by more than 27 percent last year, shedding $10 billion from 2008. Online advertising swooned more than 11 percent, which would largely be, I suspect, because it’s so tied to print sales via upsells.
But I have a bone to pick with this:
From its peak in 2005, newspaper ad revenue dropped 44.2 percent, from more than $49.4 billion to less than $27.6 billion last year. The last time advertisers spent less on newspapers was in 1986.
That’s nominally correct, but it’s wrong in reality. The 1986 comparison is only right if you don’t adjust for inflation. The newspaper industry did indeed take in $27 billion in 1986. But adjusting that for inflation gets you $52.9 billion in real dollars.
That means, according to these calculations I made last summer (when I estimated 2009 would hit 1965 levels), that the last time newspapers ads were lower was in 1963.
This is a good example of why journalists should always try to use real dollars, not nominal ones—especially when comparing two numbers separated by a lot of time.
If papers continue on their fourth-quarter trajectory, they’ll sink to levels last seen in the 1950s this year. Which is why stories like the Times’s own about iPad ads in high demand are so important. Too bad the paper stuffs the story inside.
Chase Sapphire, a credit card for the high-end market, has bought out The New York Times’s iPad advertising units for 60 days after the introduction
FedEx will be the exclusive advertiser on the Reuters and Newsweek apps for 90 days after their introduction.
Now it’s great to see such demand for ads in this new format, which we’ve said before is one of the last best hopes for newspapers and magazines. But it’s not a good sign I’d say that one advertiser is able to snap up all ads in the NYT, say, for months. That would never happen in print because the demand is too broad-based and the inventory of ad pages is so deep. What does this say about the number of ads that publishers will be able to show on the iPad?
Also interesting here is the news that The Wall Street Journal will charge $17.99 a month for its iPad app. I think it’s great that a newspaper is being so aggressive in pricing its paper, and it raises questions about why the Times apparently isn’t charging from the get-go.
But the WSJ pricing doesn’t make sense. A WSJ.com subscription costs less than half as much—$8.62 a week. A print subscription delivered to your door costs just $9.92 a month. A print and online subscription costs $11.66 a month. But you’re going to charge $18 for the iPad app?
It better be good!
ADDING: The WSJ also has an iPad ad story this morning and it’s better than the Times’s. This is interesting:
Hype over the iPad unveiling two months ago focused on selling subscriptions for the device, but no major magazines appear ready to do so yet, according to people familiar with the matter. That leaves titles like Time and People, Men’s Health and Hearst Corp.’s Esquire to offer weekly or monthly iPad editions of their magazines, priced at or near the cover price of a print issue.
It would have been nice to have some explanation here, because this makes no sense:
Esquire, whose iPad plans are furthest ahead in the Hearst magazine stable, is leaning toward a downloadable issue without advertisements for now, priced at $2.99, or $2 less than the physical magazine’s cover price.
But this is real money, especially for a brand-new device, one limited to a few hundred thousand or couple of million early adopters:
Six advertisers, including Coca-Cola and FedEx, have agreed to advertise with the Journal, and a four-month ad package costs $400,000, according to these people.
That would be $2.4 million over four months, presumably with no traffic minimums, or $7.2 million annualized. That seems like a pretty great start to me. Fingers are crossed here at The Audit.
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Anyone with an iPad obviously has extra money to burn. It's like they filled out a survey saying they I spend rediculous amounts of money on things I don't need. Why not charge such people extra, as the WSJ is doing.
#1 Posted by Anonymous, CJR on Thu 25 Mar 2010 at 02:26 PM
Anyone with an iPad obviously has extra money to burn. It's like they filled out a survey saying they spend rediculous amounts of money on things they don't need. Why not charge such people extra, as the WSJ is doing.
#2 Posted by Anonymous, CJR on Thu 25 Mar 2010 at 02:26 PM
Re. your:
“This is a good example of why journalists should always try to use real dollars, not nominal ones—especially when comparing two numbers separated by a lot of time.”
here’s a memorable example, numbers from:
http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/TABLEnum.html
At its January 2000 peak, the nominal Dow was a factor 30.9 times higher than at its September 1929 peak, 70.3 years earlier. But consumer prices (CPI-U) rose by a factor 9.8 during this 70.3 yr interval. So, the Real Dow (i.e., the Dow’s consumer purchasing power) rose by just a factor 3.2 during this 70.3 yr interval.
A stated factor 30.9 increase is far more impressive than a stated factor 3.2 increase -- but the factor 9.8 of ‘more impressive’ is ALL FALSE.
Chart is here:
http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf
#3 Posted by Ed, CJR on Thu 25 Mar 2010 at 03:28 PM
The only significant advantages I can see with an iPad are its light weight and claimed 10-hour battery life.
The lack of a physical keyboard and being restricted to Apple's diktats about what software can be run are major negatives, along with no memory card slot or USB ports. You can buy a Windows netbook for less than $300, compared to $500 for the cheapest iPad.
#4 Posted by Bradley J. Fikes, CJR on Thu 25 Mar 2010 at 04:10 PM
The WSJ pricing for the iPad may indicate that the Journal doesn't think it will be able to sell enough ads to subsidize costs the way ads in the print paper are supposed to. Murdoch and Hinton have been outspoken in saying that Web-based journalism will evolve to a model in which advertising subsidies of the real cost of delivering news will inevitably diminish. That leaves subscribers to pick up the burden. Still, you'd think the avoided cost of newsprint and delivery people around would permit less aggressive pricing. .
#5 Posted by billinboston, CJR on Fri 26 Mar 2010 at 11:52 AM
Ryan,
You're right that the inflation-adjusted numbers are more meaningful (though I think there are limitations there, too), and more striking. Mea culpa.
But I'm not so sure about your contention that selling out the ad inventory to a single "launch sponsor" for some period of time is a bad idea. I have no idea what sort of financial terms The Times made with Chase. But as you know, these arrangements aren't that unusual, the people who sell the ads know more about it than you or I do, and I think it's a fair guess that they wouldn't do it unless it reaped more money than the usual practice of selling to advertisers one by one.
#6 Posted by Richard Perez-Pena, CJR on Fri 26 Mar 2010 at 12:01 PM
As an ad agency executive, I watch this closely because newspapers -- on paper or in pixels -- are a medium for reaching consumers and shoppers as well. Here was my take:
http://admajoremblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/party-like-its-1963.html
#7 Posted by Steve Schildwachter, CJR on Mon 29 Mar 2010 at 10:52 AM